Apsara Biotechnology Research's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/1390901/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1072691/comments?source=feed#comment-12771551 12771551 Wed, 19 Dec 2012 10:12:09 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1007191/comments?source=feed#comment-11665381 11665381 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:35:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1007191/comments?source=feed#comment-11665301 11665301 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 19:31:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1007191/comments?source=feed#comment-11655891 11655891 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 15:44:18 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1007191/comments?source=feed#comment-11655871 11655871 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 15:43:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1007191/comments?source=feed#comment-11637901 11637901 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 10:06:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/870681/comments?source=feed#comment-9538431 9538431 Mon, 17 Sep 2012 10:40:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8692481 8692481
Let's take a step back and review what our article said. It said that we haven't yet seen sufficient data to make the conclusions necessary that justify a $300 million valuation. This stock has gone up too far too fast based on an 8k and various management communications that haven't been sufficiently conclusive. And the last time this happened, with front-line NSCLC, investors were caught blindsided when the actual study data was released, as opposed to the preliminary reading.]]> Thu, 23 Aug 2012 11:03:23 -0400
Let's take a step back and review what our article said. It said that we haven't yet seen sufficient data to make the conclusions necessary that justify a $300 million valuation. This stock has gone up too far too fast based on an 8k and various management communications that haven't been sufficiently conclusive. And the last time this happened, with front-line NSCLC, investors were caught blindsided when the actual study data was released, as opposed to the preliminary reading.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8691051 8691051 http://bit.ly/NiY4Qj.

I'd personally favor that relative to purchasing shares of PPHM, given that Bavi's progress has been relatively bumpy.]]> Thu, 23 Aug 2012 10:32:36 -0400 http://bit.ly/NiY4Qj.

I'd personally favor that relative to purchasing shares of PPHM, given that Bavi's progress has been relatively bumpy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8690311 8690311 Thu, 23 Aug 2012 10:21:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8689441 8689441 Thu, 23 Aug 2012 10:02:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8689421 8689421 Thu, 23 Aug 2012 10:01:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8659181 8659181
No, we just think PPHM is overvalued and is on its way to $1.50 or lower, because it never deserved the rapid ascent it experienced in the past two months. ]]> Wed, 22 Aug 2012 13:35:32 -0400
No, we just think PPHM is overvalued and is on its way to $1.50 or lower, because it never deserved the rapid ascent it experienced in the past two months. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8657431 8657431
First, you argue that the ATM program is over because the last date of share increases reported was August 16. So we're to believe that as of a week ago, share dilution is finished at this company? Given the cash burn, it's unlikely that the dilution is anywhere close to over, regardless of passing comments that the CEO made at Wedbush.

To the remainder of your points, you're mainly discussing items that the CEO is "expecting". He's expecting to find a partner. He's expecting to progress to Phase III trials. He's expecting to release actual concrete data on September 7th. PPHM management has been expecting many things from Bavi over the past 8 years. And yet investors keep being disappointed over and over again, whether it's disappointing results with Cotara or stumbles with Bavi's NSCLC Front-Line tests. After more than two decades of never having advanced to Phase III trials or found a partner, Peregrine has rightfully lost its ability to convince investors that its rose-tinted expectations, hopes and dreams are worth actual dollars of market capitalization. They no longer deserve our benefit of the doubt until the science has actually proven itself, which it has repeatedly failed to do.

That's why the market has been receptive to our article. An examination of PPHM's history makes it clear that this is a management team that has been overly optimistic in the past, and its May data simply do not show enough hard data that investors can hang their hat on. No p-values, no HRs, a lack of discussion of base assumptions, too small a sample patient size, etc.

Therefore, this Phase II cancer drug biotech that has been trying to bring its flagship drug into Phase III trials and find a Big Pharma partner for eight years does not deserve a $300 million market cap. It merely deserves option value. We'd be generous to give it a $100 million market cap, which equates to a sub $1.50 stock price. ]]> Wed, 22 Aug 2012 12:59:12 -0400
First, you argue that the ATM program is over because the last date of share increases reported was August 16. So we're to believe that as of a week ago, share dilution is finished at this company? Given the cash burn, it's unlikely that the dilution is anywhere close to over, regardless of passing comments that the CEO made at Wedbush.

To the remainder of your points, you're mainly discussing items that the CEO is "expecting". He's expecting to find a partner. He's expecting to progress to Phase III trials. He's expecting to release actual concrete data on September 7th. PPHM management has been expecting many things from Bavi over the past 8 years. And yet investors keep being disappointed over and over again, whether it's disappointing results with Cotara or stumbles with Bavi's NSCLC Front-Line tests. After more than two decades of never having advanced to Phase III trials or found a partner, Peregrine has rightfully lost its ability to convince investors that its rose-tinted expectations, hopes and dreams are worth actual dollars of market capitalization. They no longer deserve our benefit of the doubt until the science has actually proven itself, which it has repeatedly failed to do.

That's why the market has been receptive to our article. An examination of PPHM's history makes it clear that this is a management team that has been overly optimistic in the past, and its May data simply do not show enough hard data that investors can hang their hat on. No p-values, no HRs, a lack of discussion of base assumptions, too small a sample patient size, etc.

Therefore, this Phase II cancer drug biotech that has been trying to bring its flagship drug into Phase III trials and find a Big Pharma partner for eight years does not deserve a $300 million market cap. It merely deserves option value. We'd be generous to give it a $100 million market cap, which equates to a sub $1.50 stock price. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8656811 8656811
I'm sure we'll see whether scientific results will help out the longs - an examination of Peregrine's history, as well as its May results, indicates that this stock price will be much lower sooner than later. ]]> Wed, 22 Aug 2012 12:43:59 -0400
I'm sure we'll see whether scientific results will help out the longs - an examination of Peregrine's history, as well as its May results, indicates that this stock price will be much lower sooner than later. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8646661 8646661
Though do you live in North Korea? It may be illegal there. But North Korea does not have jurisdiction over us. ]]> Wed, 22 Aug 2012 08:50:38 -0400
Though do you live in North Korea? It may be illegal there. But North Korea does not have jurisdiction over us. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8646521 8646521 Wed, 22 Aug 2012 08:46:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/821601/comments?source=feed#comment-8646471 8646471 Wed, 22 Aug 2012 08:43:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/661541/comments?source=feed#comment-6515411 6515411 Sun, 17 Jun 2012 19:33:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/661541/comments?source=feed#comment-6515361 6515361 Sun, 17 Jun 2012 19:29:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/661541/comments?source=feed#comment-6515341 6515341 Sun, 17 Jun 2012 19:26:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/661541/comments?source=feed#comment-6515241 6515241 Sun, 17 Jun 2012 19:20:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/661541/comments?source=feed#comment-6462361 6462361
Our argument is that it's a fallacy that OPK is a good investment just because Frost has been buying shares. Frost was in SearchMedia. Frost was in Protalix. Frost was in Winston Pharmaceuticals. Frost was in ROX. Frost was in SFES, NIMU, Tiger X, etc. Were all these good investments because Frost owned shares in them. No! They were bad investments because their underlying operations were worth far less than their market caps. The same situation exists with OPK.

Of course Frost has made good investments. He's made good investments and he's made bad investments. So have I and so has everyone else. Investors should base their decisions on the fundamentals of the actual company they're buying, not on who else has also been buying or selling that stock.]]> Fri, 15 Jun 2012 11:47:16 -0400
Our argument is that it's a fallacy that OPK is a good investment just because Frost has been buying shares. Frost was in SearchMedia. Frost was in Protalix. Frost was in Winston Pharmaceuticals. Frost was in ROX. Frost was in SFES, NIMU, Tiger X, etc. Were all these good investments because Frost owned shares in them. No! They were bad investments because their underlying operations were worth far less than their market caps. The same situation exists with OPK.

Of course Frost has made good investments. He's made good investments and he's made bad investments. So have I and so has everyone else. Investors should base their decisions on the fundamentals of the actual company they're buying, not on who else has also been buying or selling that stock.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/661541/comments?source=feed#comment-6456361 6456361 Fri, 15 Jun 2012 10:00:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/661541/comments?source=feed#comment-6456341 6456341 Fri, 15 Jun 2012 09:59:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/661541/comments?source=feed#comment-6456231 6456231 Fri, 15 Jun 2012 09:57:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/652641/comments?source=feed#comment-6339571 6339571
Was Lightsquared a good investment because Phil Falcone kept investing in it? No. Whether you walk off a cliff yourself, or follow a rich person off a cliff, it doesn't matter. You still fall to your death. Are you looking forward to saying 'Hey, I lost a bunch of money, but at least so did Phil Frost, some random pharma executive who I've never met!'

Our research never indicated that OPK will grow revenue by 100% over the next 3-4 years. Rather, we believe the diagnostic tests will not be commercially viable, the Claros business is worth far less than what the market is anticipating, the emerging markets distribution business shows no signs of being profitable, etc.

My price target is 56 cents, or, more realistically, my price target is simply more than 50% lower than where the stock trades today. ]]> Tue, 12 Jun 2012 10:40:40 -0400
Was Lightsquared a good investment because Phil Falcone kept investing in it? No. Whether you walk off a cliff yourself, or follow a rich person off a cliff, it doesn't matter. You still fall to your death. Are you looking forward to saying 'Hey, I lost a bunch of money, but at least so did Phil Frost, some random pharma executive who I've never met!'

Our research never indicated that OPK will grow revenue by 100% over the next 3-4 years. Rather, we believe the diagnostic tests will not be commercially viable, the Claros business is worth far less than what the market is anticipating, the emerging markets distribution business shows no signs of being profitable, etc.

My price target is 56 cents, or, more realistically, my price target is simply more than 50% lower than where the stock trades today. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/652641/comments?source=feed#comment-6332441 6332441
This couldn't be further from the truth, in my opinion. Frost's historical track record is very patchy. Frost backed Protalix, which reached a valuation north of $1.5 billion before dropping 80% on a single day on the back of one of the most dilutive financings I've ever come across. It has not recovered. He has invested in numerous public reverse merger biotechs (OPK itself was formed out of reverse mergers) that have ended up worthless or have led investors to dramatic losses, including Winston Pharmaceuticals, Safestitch Medical, Cardo Medical, Non Invasive Monitoring Systems, etc. His SPAC got duped into investing in a Chinese fraud, SearchMedia Holdings. His original ophthalmology investments at opko (that's where the name "op"ko comes from) were a dismal failure and cost investors tremendous amounts of money back in 2008, and today the ophthalmology investments have mainly been wound down. We'll document Frost's investing mishaps in a future article, given that many investors are in OPK mainly because of Frost.

Frost has had some successes, but he has had plenty of spectacular failures. Rather than investing in Opko because of Frost, investors need to examine the underlying products, which, in our opinion, are worth far less than $1.4 billion. In the past, quite a number of Frost-backed companies have suffered tremendous collapses. ]]> Tue, 12 Jun 2012 06:49:19 -0400
This couldn't be further from the truth, in my opinion. Frost's historical track record is very patchy. Frost backed Protalix, which reached a valuation north of $1.5 billion before dropping 80% on a single day on the back of one of the most dilutive financings I've ever come across. It has not recovered. He has invested in numerous public reverse merger biotechs (OPK itself was formed out of reverse mergers) that have ended up worthless or have led investors to dramatic losses, including Winston Pharmaceuticals, Safestitch Medical, Cardo Medical, Non Invasive Monitoring Systems, etc. His SPAC got duped into investing in a Chinese fraud, SearchMedia Holdings. His original ophthalmology investments at opko (that's where the name "op"ko comes from) were a dismal failure and cost investors tremendous amounts of money back in 2008, and today the ophthalmology investments have mainly been wound down. We'll document Frost's investing mishaps in a future article, given that many investors are in OPK mainly because of Frost.

Frost has had some successes, but he has had plenty of spectacular failures. Rather than investing in Opko because of Frost, investors need to examine the underlying products, which, in our opinion, are worth far less than $1.4 billion. In the past, quite a number of Frost-backed companies have suffered tremendous collapses. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/607751/comments?source=feed#comment-6047431 6047431 Sat, 02 Jun 2012 14:23:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/530661/comments?source=feed#comment-5016191 5016191
Regardless, let's address your comment. You are correct that we misspoke; voters did approve a general obligation bond issuance to fund CIRM research rather than a tax hike.

While there has not apparently been any direct polling, we find it unlikely that voters would approve another round of funding for CIRM given the recent sharp criticism in the Los Angeles Times and Associated Press, in addition to the pressing financial woes California faces that has forced sharp cuts to social services. The fact that CIRM has issued a transition plan that assumes no further public funding after the bond money dries up supports this idea.]]> Wed, 02 May 2012 11:19:14 -0400
Regardless, let's address your comment. You are correct that we misspoke; voters did approve a general obligation bond issuance to fund CIRM research rather than a tax hike.

While there has not apparently been any direct polling, we find it unlikely that voters would approve another round of funding for CIRM given the recent sharp criticism in the Los Angeles Times and Associated Press, in addition to the pressing financial woes California faces that has forced sharp cuts to social services. The fact that CIRM has issued a transition plan that assumes no further public funding after the bond money dries up supports this idea.]]>