Bill W.'s Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/139103/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/148387-winter-s-coming-for-the-boomers-part-2?source=feed#comment-588122 588122 " Peak oil does not mean we are running out. It means we are discovering less than we are extracting. The easily obtainable fuel has been obtained. Now we need to use tar sand, shale, and deep water wells. To even undertake those projects at a profit you need $100 oil or greater. Demand will grow. That is a given. Supply will not be able to keep up."

Thank you sir for responding. I take exception with your statement that the "The easily obtainable fuel has ben obtained". If memory serves, it took about 5 years to construct the Alaskan Pipeline. I'm sure if this nation had the political will, the oil in Anwar and the natural gas stored in the ground at the north slope of Alaska could be made available in 5 years or less. Again, if memory serves, the oil companies obtained the permits for "right-of-ways" for the natural gas pipeline when they got them for the oil pipeline. Whether they did or not does not really matter, the point being the Alaskan pipeline was built in remote areas, so obtaining permits will be no big deal.

I think what is really needed is a comprehensive energy plan, one that uses a mix of energy resources until such time that alternative energy can be phased in as our main energy source.

I do agree with your premise regarding energy that if things don't change, this country is looking at a very bleak future. That is why we need a different perspective on this issue.

James, please let me say that your writing style is enticing, you do make one think, and I thank you for that.

















On Jul 14 01:58 PM James Quinn wrote:

> Peak oil does not mean we are running out. It means we are discovering
> less than we are extracting. The easily obtainable fuel has been
> obtained. Now we need to use tar sand, shale, and deep water wells.
> To even undertake those projects at a profit you need $100 oil or
> greater. Demand will grow. That is a given. Supply will not be able
> to keep up.]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 16:14:38 -0400 " Peak oil does not mean we are running out. It means we are discovering less than we are extracting. The easily obtainable fuel has been obtained. Now we need to use tar sand, shale, and deep water wells. To even undertake those projects at a profit you need $100 oil or greater. Demand will grow. That is a given. Supply will not be able to keep up."

Thank you sir for responding. I take exception with your statement that the "The easily obtainable fuel has ben obtained". If memory serves, it took about 5 years to construct the Alaskan Pipeline. I'm sure if this nation had the political will, the oil in Anwar and the natural gas stored in the ground at the north slope of Alaska could be made available in 5 years or less. Again, if memory serves, the oil companies obtained the permits for "right-of-ways" for the natural gas pipeline when they got them for the oil pipeline. Whether they did or not does not really matter, the point being the Alaskan pipeline was built in remote areas, so obtaining permits will be no big deal.

I think what is really needed is a comprehensive energy plan, one that uses a mix of energy resources until such time that alternative energy can be phased in as our main energy source.

I do agree with your premise regarding energy that if things don't change, this country is looking at a very bleak future. That is why we need a different perspective on this issue.

James, please let me say that your writing style is enticing, you do make one think, and I thank you for that.

















On Jul 14 01:58 PM James Quinn wrote:

> Peak oil does not mean we are running out. It means we are discovering
> less than we are extracting. The easily obtainable fuel has been
> obtained. Now we need to use tar sand, shale, and deep water wells.
> To even undertake those projects at a profit you need $100 oil or
> greater. Demand will grow. That is a given. Supply will not be able
> to keep up.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148387-winter-s-coming-for-the-boomers-part-2?source=feed#comment-587561 587561
Let me explain. In 1975 and 1976, I was a Project Planning Engineer on working for Brown and Root at the North Slope on the Alaskan Pipeline Project. I helped plan and schedule the gathering units (the pipes running from the wellheads to pump station number one and the separation units, the purpose of the separation units was to separate the natural gas, water, and oil, the natural gas was injected back into the ground, water was discharged into Prudue Bay, and the oil was sent to Pump Station One.

While at the North Slope, I stayed at the BP Hilton, a facility that provided lodging. While there I got to know more than a few geologists from Standard Oil and BP. Anyway, one evening over a few beers I made the statement that the world was running out of natural gas and oil. Well I had these guys ROFLAO. They were amazed that I was that naive. They essentially told me that there is enough natural gas and oil to last the lower 48 states for the next 500 years.



]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:07:39 -0400
Let me explain. In 1975 and 1976, I was a Project Planning Engineer on working for Brown and Root at the North Slope on the Alaskan Pipeline Project. I helped plan and schedule the gathering units (the pipes running from the wellheads to pump station number one and the separation units, the purpose of the separation units was to separate the natural gas, water, and oil, the natural gas was injected back into the ground, water was discharged into Prudue Bay, and the oil was sent to Pump Station One.

While at the North Slope, I stayed at the BP Hilton, a facility that provided lodging. While there I got to know more than a few geologists from Standard Oil and BP. Anyway, one evening over a few beers I made the statement that the world was running out of natural gas and oil. Well I had these guys ROFLAO. They were amazed that I was that naive. They essentially told me that there is enough natural gas and oil to last the lower 48 states for the next 500 years.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140186-too-much-supply-too-little-support?source=feed#comment-522958 522958
Excellent article, as usual! Just read some news the banks will be tickled pink to hear: The Government today announced that first time home buyers can, effective imediately, use thier $8000 tax credit to reduce the price of the home. So, instead of waiting until they get thier tax returns next year, the money will be used in the near term.

God help us all.
]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 11:46:34 -0400
Excellent article, as usual! Just read some news the banks will be tickled pink to hear: The Government today announced that first time home buyers can, effective imediately, use thier $8000 tax credit to reduce the price of the home. So, instead of waiting until they get thier tax returns next year, the money will be used in the near term.

God help us all.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114639-home-prices-may-be-nearing-bottom-bank-equities-to-follow?source=feed#comment-355598 355598
However, I think it is too early in the game to be placing any bets on housing. I think about six months from now, we will have a better picture of how things will work out.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 11:56:24 -0500
However, I think it is too early in the game to be placing any bets on housing. I think about six months from now, we will have a better picture of how things will work out.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114350-we-may-see-mortgage-rates-fall-to-3-5?source=feed#comment-354653 354653 Tue, 13 Jan 2009 13:21:27 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112403-dennis-gartman-go-long-infrastructure-short-everything-else?source=feed#comment-340516 340516 Mon, 29 Dec 2008 11:11:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/99457-g-7-nothing-new?source=feed#comment-281118 281118
The question I have now for you is this: Ben B. told congress that the banks can't be bailed out at fire sale prices, like Lehman's, for instance but thier OTC's should be somewhat (held near maturity) higher so that the American tax payer can make some money on this deal when a higher value is reached in the future. So, how much money do the banks really need to make this happen?

And, let's say they get more, won't this cause the USD to lose value against all currencies. On the other hand, if this is indeed a world wide banking crisis, and there is no doubt that it is, then banks world wide, and not just the US will have to add liquidity so would'nt things just balance out?

Thanks In Advance For Your Reply,

Another intellectually challenged individuall.

Bill W.]]> Mon, 13 Oct 2008 08:11:56 -0400
The question I have now for you is this: Ben B. told congress that the banks can't be bailed out at fire sale prices, like Lehman's, for instance but thier OTC's should be somewhat (held near maturity) higher so that the American tax payer can make some money on this deal when a higher value is reached in the future. So, how much money do the banks really need to make this happen?

And, let's say they get more, won't this cause the USD to lose value against all currencies. On the other hand, if this is indeed a world wide banking crisis, and there is no doubt that it is, then banks world wide, and not just the US will have to add liquidity so would'nt things just balance out?

Thanks In Advance For Your Reply,

Another intellectually challenged individuall.

Bill W.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91713-is-inflation-a-clear-and-present-danger-no-way?source=feed#comment-235156 235156 Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:19:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91713-is-inflation-a-clear-and-present-danger-no-way?source=feed#comment-235155 235155 Wed, 20 Aug 2008 18:18:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89661-the-cyclical-nature-of-markets?source=feed#comment-224873 224873
I also think the major gold producers will be buying up juniors as thier stock is being beat down in this market. I'm trying to evaluate which junior would be a good take-over target. So, this brings me to this question: Do you (or anyone reading this) know of a web site that lists the majority of the juniors?

Respectfuly,

Bill W.]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 09:11:18 -0400
I also think the major gold producers will be buying up juniors as thier stock is being beat down in this market. I'm trying to evaluate which junior would be a good take-over target. So, this brings me to this question: Do you (or anyone reading this) know of a web site that lists the majority of the juniors?

Respectfuly,

Bill W.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88466-depressing-summer-reading?source=feed#comment-220325 220325 jsmineset.com for daily comentary by Jim Sinclair. Jim's credentials are impecabble (he was on the short list as a nominee for Sec. of the Treasury during the Nixon regime). And, he has over 35 years of experiance in the gold and stock markets.....the bottom line on this guy is that I listen to what he has to say because he know what he is talking about.

It is only when one has educated one's self will it be the time when he cannot be fooled by the media fools.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> Fri, 01 Aug 2008 12:27:25 -0400 jsmineset.com for daily comentary by Jim Sinclair. Jim's credentials are impecabble (he was on the short list as a nominee for Sec. of the Treasury during the Nixon regime). And, he has over 35 years of experiance in the gold and stock markets.....the bottom line on this guy is that I listen to what he has to say because he know what he is talking about.

It is only when one has educated one's self will it be the time when he cannot be fooled by the media fools.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88344-the-recession-began-in-q4-07-is-the-end-near?source=feed#comment-220209 220209 Fri, 01 Aug 2008 11:12:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87308-building-your-portfolio-for-the-next-bull-market?source=feed#comment-218261 218261
I believe that our economy is in a lot worse shape than the media has led us to believe. I live in the historal section of Jacksonville Florida, a section of town that is in transition from being run down to being upscale. Anyway there are half way houses that provide room and board for $97 a week......a year ago there was a waiting list to get into these places. They now have a vacancy rate of 33%! The folks tell me that even a lot of the day labor pools have gone out of business. It makes me wonder where these folks are living.

]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 09:50:59 -0400
I believe that our economy is in a lot worse shape than the media has led us to believe. I live in the historal section of Jacksonville Florida, a section of town that is in transition from being run down to being upscale. Anyway there are half way houses that provide room and board for $97 a week......a year ago there was a waiting list to get into these places. They now have a vacancy rate of 33%! The folks tell me that even a lot of the day labor pools have gone out of business. It makes me wonder where these folks are living.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87308-building-your-portfolio-for-the-next-bull-market?source=feed#comment-216910 216910
You are absolutely right about how is priced and how most, if not all of the oil on the TAPS is sent to Japan.

A point most folks don't take into consideration is the lead time it takes to bring major projects on line, the Alaska Pipeline was years in planning and if memory serves took about 8 years for the design,
manufacture and construction.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 18:42:43 -0400
You are absolutely right about how is priced and how most, if not all of the oil on the TAPS is sent to Japan.

A point most folks don't take into consideration is the lead time it takes to bring major projects on line, the Alaska Pipeline was years in planning and if memory serves took about 8 years for the design,
manufacture and construction.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/81848-is-fed-rate-policy-affected-by-election-year-politics?source=feed#comment-188529 188529 This being an election year is irrevelent. If ther fed lifts rates then the housing market will crash. Ben is currently between a rock and a hard spot.......he can't actually raise rates because of the impact on the housing market and he can't lower rates, because of inflation, all he can do is what he is doing.....jawboning.]]> Thu, 19 Jun 2008 12:02:15 -0400 This being an election year is irrevelent. If ther fed lifts rates then the housing market will crash. Ben is currently between a rock and a hard spot.......he can't actually raise rates because of the impact on the housing market and he can't lower rates, because of inflation, all he can do is what he is doing.....jawboning.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80467-investors-at-risk-of-losing-everything?source=feed#comment-181282 181282 and read your articles, because you speak from your heart and not your ego.

I think we all need to take a deep breath and count to ten, because in IMHO, we are going to go through some very troubled times in the next few months. However, I do see light at the end of the tunnel.....and that light is solar energy. It looks like things have to get a lot worse before they get better........this is just something we will all have to get through.]]> Sun, 08 Jun 2008 11:50:14 -0400 and read your articles, because you speak from your heart and not your ego.

I think we all need to take a deep breath and count to ten, because in IMHO, we are going to go through some very troubled times in the next few months. However, I do see light at the end of the tunnel.....and that light is solar energy. It looks like things have to get a lot worse before they get better........this is just something we will all have to get through.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76027-brighter-economic-forecast-for-2008?source=feed#comment-169921 169921 Mon, 19 May 2008 08:13:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77629-the-home-start-numbers-are-not-a-positive?source=feed#comment-169291 169291 Sat, 17 May 2008 10:30:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75550-we-re-nearing-crunch-time-for-oil?source=feed#comment-161980 161980
And the cost of continuing to do what we are doing is ruining our economy. Switching to alternatives will end the estimated $800 billion in annuall hidden costs of oil. Instead of giving the oil companies and estimated $80 billion annually in tax credits and subsidies, we could be investing in something with a future. And solar and wind and other clean energies won't cause wars in the mideast costing trillions of dollars and thousands of GI lives.

If you were paying for the hidden costs of oil at the gas pump, the price would be approaching $12/gallon.

The Greenies could be the smart ones. They aren't burying their heads in the sand.

And here's an example of what solar can do. and do it without any of the dangers of hidden costs of nukes and oil.

Yes alternatives need subsidies to get up to scale. So far they are miniscule compared with the subsidies for competing fuels.

Scientific American A Solar Grand Plan
sciam.com/article.cfm?......

"Solar thermal power plants such as Ausra's generate electricity by driving steam turbines with sunshine. Ausra's solar concentrators boil water with focused sunlight, and produce electricity at prices directly competitive with gas- and coal-fired electric power."

"Solar thermal power plants can store energy during daylight hours and generate power when it's needed. Ausra's power plants collect the sun's energy as heat; Ausra is developing thermal energy storage systems which can store enough heat to run the power plant for up to 20 hours during dark or cloudy periods."

"Solar is one the most land-efficient sources of clean power we have, using a fraction of the area needed by hydro or wind projects of comparable output. All of America's needs for electric power – the entire US grid, night and day – can be generated with Ausra's current technology using a square parcel of land 92 miles on a side. For comparison, this is less than 1% of America's deserts, less land than currently in use in the U.S. for coal mines."
ausra.com

blogs.business2.com/gr... /
And go to Green Wombat to see what's already happening in California with solar thermal power plants
•
frflyer
Mar 30 01:44 PM
Sources of estimates of oil's hidden costs and subsidies.

setamericafree.org/saf......
monitor.net/monitor/10......
progress.org/2003/ener...
eoearth.org/article/Te......


Respectfuly,

Bill W.






]]> Mon, 05 May 2008 09:52:06 -0400
And the cost of continuing to do what we are doing is ruining our economy. Switching to alternatives will end the estimated $800 billion in annuall hidden costs of oil. Instead of giving the oil companies and estimated $80 billion annually in tax credits and subsidies, we could be investing in something with a future. And solar and wind and other clean energies won't cause wars in the mideast costing trillions of dollars and thousands of GI lives.

If you were paying for the hidden costs of oil at the gas pump, the price would be approaching $12/gallon.

The Greenies could be the smart ones. They aren't burying their heads in the sand.

And here's an example of what solar can do. and do it without any of the dangers of hidden costs of nukes and oil.

Yes alternatives need subsidies to get up to scale. So far they are miniscule compared with the subsidies for competing fuels.

Scientific American A Solar Grand Plan
sciam.com/article.cfm?......

"Solar thermal power plants such as Ausra's generate electricity by driving steam turbines with sunshine. Ausra's solar concentrators boil water with focused sunlight, and produce electricity at prices directly competitive with gas- and coal-fired electric power."

"Solar thermal power plants can store energy during daylight hours and generate power when it's needed. Ausra's power plants collect the sun's energy as heat; Ausra is developing thermal energy storage systems which can store enough heat to run the power plant for up to 20 hours during dark or cloudy periods."

"Solar is one the most land-efficient sources of clean power we have, using a fraction of the area needed by hydro or wind projects of comparable output. All of America's needs for electric power – the entire US grid, night and day – can be generated with Ausra's current technology using a square parcel of land 92 miles on a side. For comparison, this is less than 1% of America's deserts, less land than currently in use in the U.S. for coal mines."
ausra.com

blogs.business2.com/gr... /
And go to Green Wombat to see what's already happening in California with solar thermal power plants
•
frflyer
Mar 30 01:44 PM
Sources of estimates of oil's hidden costs and subsidies.

setamericafree.org/saf......
monitor.net/monitor/10......
progress.org/2003/ener...
eoearth.org/article/Te......


Respectfuly,

Bill W.






]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/75043-three-major-changes-in-the-fed-s-longer-statement?source=feed#comment-160227 160227 Thu, 01 May 2008 14:26:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74674-why-the-fed-needs-to-pause-today?source=feed#comment-159281 159281 Wed, 30 Apr 2008 09:38:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70389-get-out-of-commodities-barron-s?source=feed#comment-158002 158002 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 11:54:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/74255-there-is-plenty-to-fear-in-this-market?source=feed#comment-157487 157487 fourteen major banks, UBS, Citi, Merril, Morgan Standy, Deutsche, Bank of America, Royal Bank of Scotland, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Barclays, JP Morgan, Bear Sterns, and HSBC, have written off 133 billion in subprime mortgage loans, and leveraged loan comitments and the end is no where in sight. And yet the value of thier stock continues to increase. For example last Friday this group had an average increase of 3%.

When a company cuts dividends, sells assets, and issues new stock, it is clear that that company is in trouble and the value of thier stock should go down. But when the oposite happens, one can only surmise that someone is doing something to achieve this result. So, I'm like you, I just don't this market.......especiall... the financials.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> Sun, 27 Apr 2008 12:38:50 -0400 fourteen major banks, UBS, Citi, Merril, Morgan Standy, Deutsche, Bank of America, Royal Bank of Scotland, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Barclays, JP Morgan, Bear Sterns, and HSBC, have written off 133 billion in subprime mortgage loans, and leveraged loan comitments and the end is no where in sight. And yet the value of thier stock continues to increase. For example last Friday this group had an average increase of 3%.

When a company cuts dividends, sells assets, and issues new stock, it is clear that that company is in trouble and the value of thier stock should go down. But when the oposite happens, one can only surmise that someone is doing something to achieve this result. So, I'm like you, I just don't this market.......especiall... the financials.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73019-the-treasury-fed-and-bankers-are-setting-the-bull-traps?source=feed#comment-154261 154261
How is the Fed going to accomplish this without raising rates?

Respectfully

Bill W.]]> Mon, 21 Apr 2008 16:27:19 -0400
How is the Fed going to accomplish this without raising rates?

Respectfully

Bill W.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72149-catching-the-next-bubble?source=feed#comment-150426 150426 Mon, 14 Apr 2008 11:43:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72149-catching-the-next-bubble?source=feed#comment-150418 150418
I don't see any reason to wait until 2009 to buy a house. Last week my son, called and said that a house across the street from him has just gone on the market for 64k, a house that 3 years ago sold for 200k. The deals are out there right now, no need to wait.

Respectfully,

Bill W.
]]> Mon, 14 Apr 2008 11:38:50 -0400
I don't see any reason to wait until 2009 to buy a house. Last week my son, called and said that a house across the street from him has just gone on the market for 64k, a house that 3 years ago sold for 200k. The deals are out there right now, no need to wait.

Respectfully,

Bill W.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71660-consumer-sentiment-always-darkest-before-the-dawn?source=feed#comment-147517 147517 ARM) resets, which have resulted in declining home prices, foreclosures, declining home values, increase in credit card debt, Credit Default Obligation (CDO) devaluation, bank credit tightening, decrease in home demand, and on and on.

I believe we will see a direct connection with ARM resets and negative investment bank profits (which will be hidden until thier quatertly statements are released). So, this is not the end, this is the beginning of the end.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> Wed, 09 Apr 2008 08:32:24 -0400 ARM) resets, which have resulted in declining home prices, foreclosures, declining home values, increase in credit card debt, Credit Default Obligation (CDO) devaluation, bank credit tightening, decrease in home demand, and on and on.

I believe we will see a direct connection with ARM resets and negative investment bank profits (which will be hidden until thier quatertly statements are released). So, this is not the end, this is the beginning of the end.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70465-talk-of-recession-is-just-talk?source=feed#comment-134345 134345
Last Auguest I bought a 100 year old house in Jacksonville fl in a short sale for 260k, the previous owner walked away from a 400k loan so i got the property as a bargain at the time, I put about 150k into the house and now it's appraised at 300k. So, my friend you are saying that housing is only 5% of the problem? I chose to differ. The loss in housing is having a domino effect that is affecting jobs, credit card debt, employment, and on and on.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> Mon, 31 Mar 2008 20:04:15 -0400
Last Auguest I bought a 100 year old house in Jacksonville fl in a short sale for 260k, the previous owner walked away from a 400k loan so i got the property as a bargain at the time, I put about 150k into the house and now it's appraised at 300k. So, my friend you are saying that housing is only 5% of the problem? I chose to differ. The loss in housing is having a domino effect that is affecting jobs, credit card debt, employment, and on and on.

Respectfully,

Bill W.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70465-talk-of-recession-is-just-talk?source=feed#comment-134060 134060 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 11:16:59 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70418-calls-for-a-market-ready-to-rocket-higher?source=feed#comment-134033 134033 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 10:39:51 -0400