Bill W.

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32 Comments

    • Mon Apr 28th 11:54 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Get Out of Commodities - Barron's
      frflyer, thanks so much for showing us the light at the end of the tunnel.
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    • Sun Apr 27th 12:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      There Is Plenty to Fear in This Market
      Thanks for your insight Bill, I share your concern. As of April 12, 2008
      fourteen major banks, UBS, Citi, Merril, Morgan Standy, Deutsche, Bank of America, Royal Bank of Scotland, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Barclays, JP Morgan, Bear Sterns, and HSBC, have written off 133 billion in subprime mortgage loans, and leveraged loan comitments and the end is no where in sight. And yet the value of thier stock continues to increase. For example last Friday this group had an average increase of 3%.

      When a company cuts dividends, sells assets, and issues new stock, it is clear that that company is in trouble and the value of thier stock should go down. But when the oposite happens, one can only surmise that someone is doing something to achieve this result. So, I'm like you, I just don't this market.......especiall... the financials.

      Respectfully,

      Bill W.
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    • Mon Apr 21st 16:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Treasury, Fed and Bankers Are Setting the Bull Traps
      You said: Rather than continue to lower rates, I believe the Fed will now work toward a stronger $USD policy to achieve a similar impact.”

      How is the Fed going to accomplish this without raising rates?

      Respectfully

      Bill W.
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    • Mon Apr 14th 11:43 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Catching the Next Bubble
      As a follow-up....housing is in a deflationly spiral right now, what with all the money the fed is injecting into our economy, I would'nt be surprized if housing was not in an inflationly spiral again, in 2009.
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    • Mon Apr 14th 11:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Catching the Next Bubble
      You said: "In my personal situation, my wife and I don't currently own a home, and I'm looking at 2009 as a time that we might start looking for a house."

      I don't see any reason to wait until 2009 to buy a house. Last week my son, called and said that a house across the street from him has just gone on the market for 64k, a house that 3 years ago sold for 200k. The deals are out there right now, no need to wait.

      Respectfully,

      Bill W.
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    • Wed Apr 9th 08:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Consumer Sentiment: Always Darkest Before the Dawn
      This recession or pending depression is not like others because it's cause is completely different from those in the past. Think Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM) resets, which have resulted in declining home prices, foreclosures, declining home values, increase in credit card debt, Credit Default Obligation (CDO) devaluation, bank credit tightening, decrease in home demand, and on and on.

      I believe we will see a direct connection with ARM resets and negative investment bank profits (which will be hidden until thier quatertly statements are released). So, this is not the end, this is the beginning of the end.

      Respectfully,

      Bill W.
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    • Mon Mar 31st 20:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Talk of Recession is Just Talk
      Todd, I'm seeing a recession every where I look....and believe me I'm not looking at Government numbers. I have a house in Florida on the water that a year ago was appraised at 1.3 mil, a recent appraisel reflects a price of 750K, a net loss of about 50%. This reduction has had an enormous financial impact on me, so therefore I'm not spending, nor do I plan on spending money as freely as I did in the past......and, Todd, I'm only one person, multiply me by a few hundred thousand and you might begin to see the impact the current financial crisis has on our economy.

      Last Auguest I bought a 100 year old house in Jacksonville fl in a short sale for 260k, the previous owner walked away from a 400k loan so i got the property as a bargain at the time, I put about 150k into the house and now it's appraised at 300k. So, my friend you are saying that housing is only 5% of the problem? I chose to differ. The loss in housing is having a domino effect that is affecting jobs, credit card debt, employment, and on and on.

      Respectfully,

      Bill W.
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    • Mon Mar 31st 11:16 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Talk of Recession is Just Talk
      Todd, you really need to get out more often!
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    • Mon Mar 31st 10:39 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Calls For A Market Ready to "Rocket Higher"
      Jason, you really need to get out more often!
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    • Sat Mar 29th 11:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Dividend Aristocrats: Top Dividend Growers
      Due to exposure to sub-prime CDO's, SIV's etc, and thier pending take-over bid for Country Wide, Bank of America would be the last stock I would own.
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    • Mon Jan 28th 16:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Archie MacAllaster's Seven Stock Picks for 2008 - Barron's
      Bank of America going to $55.00, what kind of weed has this guy been smoking? BAC is buying Countrywide....the city and state of New York are the lead plantiff's in a national, let me repeat, NATIONAL class action lawsuit against Countrywide for fradulant subprime mortgage claims!
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    • Mon Jan 28th 16:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buying Countrywide Will Catapult Bank of America to No. 1 Online Mortgage Lender
      What this article fails to discuss is the national class action lawsuit being led by the city and state of New York against Countrywide for fraudulant claims relating to subprime mortagages.

      BAC will not only acquire countrywide but will also be subject to all of the consequences of it's subprime mortgage follies.
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    • Thu Jan 24th 16:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Percentage of Stocks Below 200 Day Moving Average Now at Historical Oversold Levels
      Thanks for the info
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    • Wed Jan 23rd 22:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oh, Chicken Little: World Markets Aren’t Falling Apart
      Another chicken little view:

      1) Credit markets
      What to look for: Libor, interest rate spreads.
      The spread between the London Interbank Overnight Rate, or Libor, and an ultrasafe 3-month Treasury bill has recently been 75 basis points, but is usually about 10. If the spread returns to normal, the danger from the credit squeeze could be over and the economy might escape without too many scratches.
      The biggest unknown in the economy right now is the condition of short-term credit markets that big businesses rely on for their immediate funding needs. Some of those markets are functioning well, but others are clogged up. Some firms, especially those in the mortgage business, can't sell commercial paper at any price. Other companies can't get funding from banks because banks are hoarding their reserves.
      The basic problem is fear. After years of accepting almost any kind of collateral, lenders have turned super cautious. Anything that sniffs of exposure to subprime lending is shunned. And because of the way the subprime mortgages were leveraged up and hidden away in special investment vehicles and collateralized debt obligations, the toxic waste could be almost anywhere. Even in Aunt Bea's pension.
      The Federal Reserve and other central banks have been trying to Roto-Rooter the system, flushing it with cash too cheap to pass up. The Libor rate should show how successful they are.
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    • Wed Jan 23rd 20:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oh, Chicken Little: World Markets Aren’t Falling Apart
      You seem to forget, that in the end of the chicken little story, he was right, but no one believed him, to wit:

      News Letters of the National City Bank of New York. (Now CitiBank or CitiCorp)

      November 1929; The collapse of stock speculation has overshadowed all other events in business during the past month. We do not believe the fundamentals of the business situation have changed. The countries farms, mills and factories are intact. All over the country, general business is proceeding in a healthy and orderly fashion in marked contrast to the chaotic conditions in the stock market.

      December 1929; The essential fact is that business itself is healthy and has not been involved in over expansion as in the stock market. There is no collapse of commodity prices. There is no inventory problem. There is no breakdown of the banking system. There are no great business failures, nor are there likely to be.

      July 1930; Since the stock market collapse of last fall, the average business man has been more inclined to question his faith in the recuperative power of the country. From most other quarters of the globe come reports of similar difficulties besetting trade and emphasizing the widespread character of depression.

      November 1930; We do not believe that business will go much lower, and we think the next important movement will be upwards.

      June 1931; The country is in the midst of a severe business depression and there is relatively little demand for money for either speculative or business purposes.

      October 1931; Excess caution on the part of bankers in making loans is one of the reasons why business is slow to climb out of depression. Everyone seems to have a story of a worthy borrower who is unable to obtain a loan.

      January 1932; Of all the markets, the decline in bonds has been most severe. Amid the confusion of the times, those who would buy bonds have been plainly uncertain as to what debts are good and what are not. This continues to make financing, and even refinancing virtually impossible.

      Note, in fact the October 1931 statement was exceptionally valid. Bankers were losing money all over the place, and called loans in abandon. They were trying to save themselves, were frightened, and did not care what damage they did to others, only that they saved themselves. Just get the money back. A major reason for the depression.










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