E Nuff Sed

We’ve Survived Worse Markets (and Economies) Before – the 1970s

Great perspective. People who had the guts to invest during the late 70's became very wealthy. There is no denying that we are in a secular bear market with possibly another 7 years to go. It is going to be hard slog through many cyclical bear markets. One thing to remember is you don't make back the money the same way you lost it. The rise of the emerging giants like India, China and Brazil is the greatest story of our lifetime. Make sure some of you investment is in these economies. These countries are in the place America was in the 50's. I was in India recently - you can feel the energy and palpable sense of optimism for he future.

The S&P 500 has gone up more than 2700% since 1955 - I think the same thing will happen to the BIC's - 50 years from now.

Can Apple Stop the Android?

The mobile war is just in the second inning. There is also Blackberry, Nokia and dark horse called Palm. Microsoft attained its dominance in a non-internet world. The new OS is actually the internet. Apps will run on the internet - with the phone only one of the myriad devices accessing the internet. Google dominates the internet and thus in my opinion is the natural favorite for now.

U.S. Debt Hysteria Is Getting Ridiculous

Totally agree with the author.

This site is crawling with destructive austrian school termites.

So what is the alternative - nationalize the banks go under and turn all the car dealerships into soup kitchens? It is this kind of liquidationist thinking a balance sheet recession into the great depression in the 30's.

We barely avoided another one thanks to the coordinated global fiscal and monetary response . What the austrian termites don't get is that this is about the consumer and the private sector deleveraging. If the government does not leverage up and provide monetary and fiscal support a quarter of the population will be depending on food banks instead of 5%, now.

Why the Stock Market Should Crash

You pay a very high price for certainty and good feeling. Ask yourself this, when is a good time to invest in equities October 2007 (economy was looking strong, unemployment at 5%) or now (worry everywhere, unemployment at 10%)?

Jeff Saut: Still Bullish

Makes sense. I agree with Saut's analysis of the back half of 2010. I think weakness may start showing up in March as we anniversary the market bottom.

Not sure if I buy the secular bull - a secular bull will only begin if we cross 1500 on the S&P - which I don't see happening for several years. I think we will be cycling between 900 - 1400 for many years.

What Does It Take to Become a Truly Competent Investor?

I think a critical skill is "balance" between paradoxical impulses 1) taking the long view 2) ability to cut losses quickly and dispassionately, or knowing when to hold and when to fold.

Meredith Whitney: 'I Haven't Been This Bearish in a Year'

Meridith says sell the banks; John Paulson is buying copious amounts of Citi? What to do?

Taiwan Semiconductor and Brocade Are on Sale

With the PEG of over 2 - the shares of TSM do not appear as cheap as your story suggests. The Dividend and almost no debt is certainly tempting.

BRCM seems to be quite over priced.

Is the Bernanke Doctrine a Disaster?

Faisal: The problem with your thesis the money supply is not growing.
Most of the money supply (created by the expansion of the Fed balance sheet) has been soaked up by the banking system which is trying to stay solvent. There is little credit available (compared to 2005- 07) on the street to fuel inflation. It will be a while before credit begins to seep back into the street to reignite inflation.

U.S. Job Losses Demystified

If the data collection system is inadequate then why not fix it so we get accurate data, rather than launch into a tirade against Obama. Obviously you are running for political office so instead of offering constructive solution you launch into a polemic to score political points.

Are Stocks Making a Major Top?

enigmaman, I agree that the ordinary investor may not fully participate this time as in 1999 and 2007 - so the contrarian signal may not be crystal clear and we may tip into another bear market. This is after all a secular bear which may not end till mid 2015 or thereabouts - i.e. till the children of the baby boomers enter into prime earning and consuming power.

Are Stocks Making a Major Top?

By "Amateur-Bear capitulation" I meant non-professional investors who finally throw caution to the wind and get fully invested in equity. They are the investors who are late to the party. I think you will get a sense of this from reading comments in seeking alpha as well as looking at fund flow data i.e when more mutual fund investment starts flowing into equities than bonds.

This is because the market can only go higher when there is cash on the sidelines (dry powder). When this powder starts depleting then its time to turn cautious.

Are Stocks Making a Major Top?

Chris, Overall I think it is an excellent article. I look forward to reading more of your thoughts on identifying major tops and bottoms - which is the holy grail for the technical analyst.

Bull market tops are formed gradually as investors are lulled into complacency and there is a slow degradation of market breadth. I agree that we are nowhere near the top of this cyclical bull market (there is just too much fear in the market, as attested too by the tone of the comments posted above). The time to worry would be when the amateur - bears start capitulating.

Are Stocks Making a Major Top?

Good post - but what is your outlook on the market? I agree watching for divergences is important but the key is distinguishing between false positives and the real deal. You have to watch multiple indicators. It is much easier to identify a major bottom (which forms a characteristic and sharp "V" , than a major top which is an elongated - inverted "U")

On Nov 13 08:19 AM ain't no fortunate son wrote:

> Most major tops like the ones in Fall, 2007, were marked by major
> technical divergences in key stocks and the indices. Technical divergences occur when stocks are still going up but the major momentum oscillators have already topped out and are falling... key ones to follow are MACD, Stochastics, RSI. These divergences can last for several months at a major top. This indicates that buying momentum has ended while the last of the late to the party buyers are still pushing up prices. Running a view of the longer term charts for the 2007 period should illustrate these divergences quite effectively.>
> The author had a good article as far as it went, but without mentioning the relationship that negative technical divergences have to market tops it is very incomplete, because these divergences in my opinion are some of the best early warning signals that trouble lies ahead.
> He speaks of being a technician, yet leaves out one of the most important technical tools one can use to help determine a market top.

Japan Parallels Are Too Close for Comfort

Mad Hedge Trader is the only commentator talking sense. It is the demographics stupid!