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105 Comments

    • Sat Aug 9th 12:17 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Terex Valuation Driven to Dirt Amidst Street Rubble
      Not a bargain at this levels. I will wait for the stock to be in the 30's. This stock was below $20 for the longest time before it "popped" in the last 3 years.

      TEX is a very cyclical play and this analysis assumes that the recent past will be the future. I personally think that this thesis is too well known and over hyped. Earth moving equipment, cranes etc are not difficult to make and there is no "moat" for this company. Indian/Chinese manufacturers like Tata etc. are better positioned to take 3rd world markets.
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    • Thu Aug 7th 23:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Great American Economy? Take a Closer Look
      There is no free lunch. Low taxes and socialistic benefits just don't add up. The US will just have to raise taxes and cut benefits.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 7th 23:03 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Capital Bank: The Baby That Went Out with the Bathwater
      Good analysis and thesis. The insider buying is very strong. Thanks for the tip.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 3rd 00:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buyout Not the Best Option for WaMu Shareholders
      WM is selling for P/CF of below 0.5. P/B of 0.3.
      WM earning model is likely permanently impaired.

      I have some shares of WM I bought a $30. Do I want to throw good money after bad? Even though it is so tempting!
      View article »
    • Sat Aug 2nd 23:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Long Case for Capital Source Inc.
      CSE will have to recognize significant losses as it sells Mortgage backed securities on its books to move away from REIT status. Also it is now exposed to Fremont's commercial loan book which can deteriorate further.

      View article »
    • Sat Aug 2nd 22:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bill Miller on This Tough Market
      This forum confirms my bullishness! The doom and gloomers are out in full force.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 22:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Annaly Capital Management: Epitome of Low Risk, High Reward
      I agree with Jawad's analysis the Annaly has great short to medium term potential assuming the hyper-ventilation subsides. However if the market's asthma worsens Annaly could get badly hurt.

      Annaly is a pure time arbitrage play. For tax purposes, Annaly is classified as a REIT. Despite this tax classification, Annaly, unlike other mortgage REITs, does not own any actual commercial or residential real estate. Annaly borrows via short-term loans (usually lasting only thirty days) and uses the money to buy mortgages that are packaged and guaranteed by Government Sponsored Entities (GSE's) like Fannie Mae. These mortgages earn the company interest. At the end of the thirty days, Annaly will borrow again to pay off the previous loan. Because the short term interest rates that Annaly pays to borrow money are typically lower than the long-term rates it earns on Mortgage-Backed Securities, it makes a narrow profit. It amplifies these narrow profits thru leverage. Annaly is currently levered around 9 times equity.

      Annaly depends on being able to continuously access the capital markets, particularly since nearly all of its debt is short-term repurchase agreements. Thus Annaly is susceptible to market confidence/ counter party confidence issues as illustrated by the collapse of Bear, Thornburg, Carlyle etc. The implosion if it comes can occur at stunning speed.

      Annaly is exposed to two ends of the yield curve--liabilities at the short end and assets at the long end. This strategy makes Annaly dependent not only on the level of interest rates, but also on the shape of the yield curve.

      The yield curve is currently steep - thus generating strong tail winds for Annaly. However in a flat or inverted yield curve situation (and if the FED starts raising rates) strong head winds can result forcing Annaly to liquidate its portfolio at below book. This can wipe out equity PDQ. Start unwinding your position if and when the FED starts raising rates ...a keep a close eye on the yeild curve.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 1st 21:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Starbucks on Sale (Part I)
      SBUX real potential is international.

      They should split the company up into 2 - a US "value" company focused on cost controls and maximizing profits (paying fat dividends) and an "international&qu... growth company focused on geographical expansion. Atria has recently done this by carving of Phillip Morris and GM may do the same.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 27th 20:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financials Have Bottomed? Readers Say We're Nuts
      I am with Tom here, the gloom and doom is way over-done. Look at this forum - the bears out number the bull 5 to 1.

      Not every financial is toxic. Even the big offenders like C, UCB, AIG, WB, etc. have taken the kitchen sink write-offs. (If I remember correctly, AIG write down was forced by the auditors) and raised capital.

      People and companies are still going to take out loans and want financial services and insurance. Also most of the CDO's are still producing virtually the same income as before even though their value has been written down 50%+ because of an illiquid market.

      The private equity boys will be making a killing buying them at 25cents on the dollar. This is the time to go long on LUK, BX, KFN & FIG.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 27th 17:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iStar Financial - On the Shelf
      Looks like a good speculative bet at this stage - which can pay off handsomely once the credit crunch passes. However there could be liquidity risk which could drive them to restructure at depressed prices. Are they funded with recourse or non-recourse loans?
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 27th 16:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida: The News We've Been Waiting For
      Thnaks. I Will keep an eye on this one. It is trading below book now and if the next quarter is profitable then it might be worth getting into.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 27th 13:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the Structural Bear Market Nearing Its End?
      The consensus seems to be that we are closer to the bottom than the top.

      Buy strong companies with a moat and good dividends and stop worrying about the bottom. Dollar cost averaging and time will take care of market risk.

      One can of course buy "puts" on S&P to protect against further declines.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 27th 12:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Evaluating Ambac: Intrinsic Value Withstanding Market Volatility
      If the CDO are not in default and are still paying interest then mark to market is incorrect. There has beeen a wholesale loss of confidence in the rating agencies, therefore the market has dried up.

      I think in a run off mode (i.e. no or minimal business) the intrinsic value of the company is in the high single digits. If the "connie lee" idea works it could be worth a bit more.
      View article »
    • Sat Jul 26th 12:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      NVIDIA's Long-Term Prospects Mean It's Currently Undervalued
      Why bother. There are so many better places for my hard earned money. Warren would not touch Nvidia with a ten foot pole.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 15th 23:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is CIBC Looking at More Subprime Exposure?
      I agree with Brad Smith.

      How can you lose with CIBC selling at below $50 and dividend of 7%?
      This Canadian bank has an incredibly wide moat in a oligopolistic environment. With an unmatched retail empire CIBC will be over a $100 in 5 years and you get paid to wait.
      View article »
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