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- IntegraMed America, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Cell Genesys, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Columbia Laboratories, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Pacific Sunwear F3Q08 (Qtr End 11/1/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Mad Catz Interactive, Inc. F2Q09 (Qtr End 09/30/2008) Earnings Call Transcript
- Provectus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. The Wall Street Analyst Forum Call Transcript
- Point Blank Solutions, Inc. Q3 2008 (Quarter End 9/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Navios Maritime Holdings Inc., Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
- Gran Tierra Energy Inc. Q3 2008 (Qtr End 09/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Oxygen Biotherapeutics, Inc. The Wall Street Analyst Forum Call Transcript
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105 Comments
Terex Valuation Driven to Dirt Amidst Street Rubble
TEX is a very cyclical play and this analysis assumes that the recent past will be the future. I personally think that this thesis is too well known and over hyped. Earth moving equipment, cranes etc are not difficult to make and there is no "moat" for this company. Indian/Chinese manufacturers like Tata etc. are better positioned to take 3rd world markets.
The Great American Economy? Take a Closer Look
Capital Bank: The Baby That Went Out with the Bathwater
Buyout Not the Best Option for WaMu Shareholders
WM earning model is likely permanently impaired.
I have some shares of WM I bought a $30. Do I want to throw good money after bad? Even though it is so tempting!
The Long Case for Capital Source Inc.
Bill Miller on This Tough Market
Annaly Capital Management: Epitome of Low Risk, High Reward
Annaly is a pure time arbitrage play. For tax purposes, Annaly is classified as a REIT. Despite this tax classification, Annaly, unlike other mortgage REITs, does not own any actual commercial or residential real estate. Annaly borrows via short-term loans (usually lasting only thirty days) and uses the money to buy mortgages that are packaged and guaranteed by Government Sponsored Entities (GSE's) like Fannie Mae. These mortgages earn the company interest. At the end of the thirty days, Annaly will borrow again to pay off the previous loan. Because the short term interest rates that Annaly pays to borrow money are typically lower than the long-term rates it earns on Mortgage-Backed Securities, it makes a narrow profit. It amplifies these narrow profits thru leverage. Annaly is currently levered around 9 times equity.
Annaly depends on being able to continuously access the capital markets, particularly since nearly all of its debt is short-term repurchase agreements. Thus Annaly is susceptible to market confidence/ counter party confidence issues as illustrated by the collapse of Bear, Thornburg, Carlyle etc. The implosion if it comes can occur at stunning speed.
Annaly is exposed to two ends of the yield curve--liabilities at the short end and assets at the long end. This strategy makes Annaly dependent not only on the level of interest rates, but also on the shape of the yield curve.
The yield curve is currently steep - thus generating strong tail winds for Annaly. However in a flat or inverted yield curve situation (and if the FED starts raising rates) strong head winds can result forcing Annaly to liquidate its portfolio at below book. This can wipe out equity PDQ. Start unwinding your position if and when the FED starts raising rates ...a keep a close eye on the yeild curve.
Starbucks on Sale (Part I)
They should split the company up into 2 - a US "value" company focused on cost controls and maximizing profits (paying fat dividends) and an "international&qu... growth company focused on geographical expansion. Atria has recently done this by carving of Phillip Morris and GM may do the same.
Financials Have Bottomed? Readers Say We're Nuts
Not every financial is toxic. Even the big offenders like C, UCB, AIG, WB, etc. have taken the kitchen sink write-offs. (If I remember correctly, AIG write down was forced by the auditors) and raised capital.
People and companies are still going to take out loans and want financial services and insurance. Also most of the CDO's are still producing virtually the same income as before even though their value has been written down 50%+ because of an illiquid market.
The private equity boys will be making a killing buying them at 25cents on the dollar. This is the time to go long on LUK, BX, KFN & FIG.
iStar Financial - On the Shelf
Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida: The News We've Been Waiting For
Is the Structural Bear Market Nearing Its End?
Buy strong companies with a moat and good dividends and stop worrying about the bottom. Dollar cost averaging and time will take care of market risk.
One can of course buy "puts" on S&P to protect against further declines.
Evaluating Ambac: Intrinsic Value Withstanding Market Volatility
I think in a run off mode (i.e. no or minimal business) the intrinsic value of the company is in the high single digits. If the "connie lee" idea works it could be worth a bit more.
NVIDIA's Long-Term Prospects Mean It's Currently Undervalued
Is CIBC Looking at More Subprime Exposure?
How can you lose with CIBC selling at below $50 and dividend of 7%?
This Canadian bank has an incredibly wide moat in a oligopolistic environment. With an unmatched retail empire CIBC will be over a $100 in 5 years and you get paid to wait.