Bespoke are not money managers but analysts and I think they are right.
The powerful high volume rally we have experienced in the last 3 weeks is no fluke. It is a good old fashioned short covering + buying panic.
My own study of past 4 bear market bottoms suggest that bottoms are marked by powerful rallies with large volume (15 - 25% gains in 3 to 5 weeks). We have gained 20% in 3 weeks, with high volume.
This is not to say its straight up from here. In fact in the next 2 -3 weeks we will enter a period of consolidations where traders will take profit and bears will start shorting again. We will give up a big portion of the current gains (50 -80%) but will not break the March 6 lows. So by all means short the market but be prepared to cover your shorts fast.
This Rally May Have Legs - Bespoke [View article]
The powerful high volume rally we have experienced in the last 3 weeks is no fluke. It is a good old fashioned short covering + buying panic.
My own study of past 4 bear market bottoms suggest that bottoms are marked by powerful rallies with large volume (15 - 25% gains in 3 to 5 weeks). We have gained 20% in 3 weeks, with high volume.
This is not to say its straight up from here. In fact in the next 2 -3 weeks we will enter a period of consolidations where traders will take profit and bears will start shorting again. We will give up a big portion of the current gains (50 -80%) but will not break the March 6 lows. So by all means short the market but be prepared to cover your shorts fast.