E Nuff Sed

Consumer Credit Decline Continues

I notice that consumer credit is roughly at 2006 levels (total available credit in $). The markets are at 2003 level.

Duopoly Visa and Mastercard Vs. Retailers - Who Wins in a Free Market?

I agree that these monopolists should be sued.
Why don't the retailers get together and give a discount (i.e. 2 or 3%) for people who pay cash or debit?

Capital One Defies Even Constanza Logic

The company expects the U.S. Card monthly charge-off rate to cross 10 percent in the next couple of months. Charge-offs are part of the business model. COF is now expecting that 10% of the credit card balances will not be paid (and has reserved for them).
Based on a recent review of the balance sheet COF's tangible equity is 4.8% and tier one capital ratio is 11.
If delinquencies double from here it may well overwhelm COF but barring that I think COF will be a survivor. A dark horse is a change in bankruptcy laws.

I agree COF as a borderline "predatory" lender is a highly disliked company and many would like to see it go down. But with the steep yield curve and if the economy does not worsen much more it will more likely double from here.

Capital One Defies Even Constanza Logic

I respectfully disagree with your thesis.

COF is quite well reserved (10%+) for credit losses and has ample liquidity. It is also trading at 1/5th book value. Therefore I think the fear in the market has more than discounted the risk. The downside for the stock is "0" which I think is no more than 20% probability while the upside is over $50 in 1 - 3 years. So a "risk adjusted" fair value in my view is $40. Stock is trading at $16. Also effect of TALF on COF remains to be seen but is likely to positive be positive. COF has also received TARP money and thus may be in "too big to fail category". COF's Tangible Common equity is well over 6% (vs. 3% for BAC and 4.5% for JPM).

Can a Stock Market Meltdown Happen from Here?

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Catastrophic events can happen anytime and send us much much lower, even to zero, but absence that neither you nor Sibel have offered up any data, much less analysis.
You say that Siebel is a proponent of quantitative analysis - yet offer nothing more than a torrent of bearish comments (cut and pasted from the internet) to back up your bearish view.

This Rally May Have Legs - Bespoke

Bespoke are not money managers but analysts and I think they are right.

The powerful high volume rally we have experienced in the last 3 weeks is no fluke. It is a good old fashioned short covering + buying panic.

My own study of past 4 bear market bottoms suggest that bottoms are marked by powerful rallies with large volume (15 - 25% gains in 3 to 5 weeks). We have gained 20% in 3 weeks, with high volume.

This is not to say its straight up from here. In fact in the next 2 -3 weeks we will enter a period of consolidations where traders will take profit and bears will start shorting again. We will give up a big portion of the current gains (50 -80%) but will not break the March 6 lows. So by all means short the market but be prepared to cover your shorts fast.

S&P Set for 50%+ Gains? Not So Fast, UBS

There is historical precedence.
The S&P 500 gained 53% from Sep 74 to June 75 (9 months).