E Nuff Sed

Consumer Credit Decline Continues

I notice that consumer credit is roughly at 2006 levels (total available credit in $). The markets are at 2003 level.

With U.S. Economy Still on the Ropes, Where Are the Banks?

I said if I could I would and so would you.
Patriotism is the last refuge of the Scoundrel.


On Oct 29 08:05 AM enigmaman wrote:

> yes, but you cannot, so while the bankers make hay while the sun
> shines on them, the heart of America is being eroded, when the time
> comes that the economy finally does turns positive for fundamental
> reasons what will it look like? As you say they "hope that the economy
> improves" in any event whether it does or doesnt the debt and any
> resulting mess will be left for middle America.

With U.S. Economy Still on the Ropes, Where Are the Banks?

If I could borrow at 0% and get a 4% return for no risk I would do the same. Basically with "mark to market" is suspended - the government is slowing is slowly inflating the bank while hoping that the economy improves.

Too Big to Fail: Greenspan Adds His Voice to the Break-Up Chorus

The financial crisis has shown that while the "too big to fail" banks operate internationally they are "bailed out" nationally if they get into trouble. A alternative to a breakup would be to put in a regulatory regime of mandatory insurance when a financial entitiy grows beyond a certain size. The premiums would increase with size.

Other changes would have to made as well - i.e. higher capital ratio's, changes to compensation (more emphasis on long term incentives than short term cash bonuses), a ban on "dark pool" trading/exchanges and a requirement that a orginator of a financial instrument such as CDO retain a signficant portion of the risk.

For example Goldman Sach's was heavly involved in CDO's insured by AIG in a credit risk swap arrangment and would have certainly collapsed if AIG was not bailed out. GS survived because the govt bailed out AIG and protected them from the counterparty's collapse. Who benefitted? GS exec's and shareholders who have made billions within a year of imminent collapse. Who paid for it? the sheeple of the United States who are in thrall of market fundamentalists.

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

TRIN is a short term indicator and probably is being messed up by high frequency trading. Longer term technical indicators are just fine.

Look at my post on the Coppock guide.
seekingalpha.com/insta...
Also as one previous poster suggested high quality companies like IBM, CSCO, P&G, J&J, Pfizer are trading at decade lows.
You guys have already missed half of the cyclical bull market, don't miss the half still to come. Stocks across the board are strongly bullish.
seekingalpha.com/insta...

You will get your bear probably some time in 2010 or 2011 - just not this year. Meanwhile don't get in front of this road-roller.

Was Paulson Right?

Buy low, sell high. Why complicate it with politics?

Looking at Banking in Switzerland

Well said. It'd be crazy to put the lunatics in charge of the asylum again. But in America, crazy comes free.

Today May Be Markets' Turning Point

I think you are 50% right.

The Case for Shorting Bank of America

I don't think there is a case for shorting BAC or even C because the government is behind them, the yield curve is steep and mark to market is not coming back for a while. Too risky.

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

While we may marvel at the 48% upswing don't forget that we are still down 37% from Oct 2007.

dshort.com/charts/bear...
I agree that we may not recover from the bear for a long time. In general the deeper a bear, the longer the recovery period (to the previous high) and this bear was the second meanest of all.

www.scribd.com/doc/180...

The 'De-Branding' of Merrill: BofA Drops the Bull on Its Own Foot

Maybe its a good thing. Merrill certainly did not live up to its vaunted rep. It was one step away for failing before it was bought. Lehman was a great brand - so was AIG - the worlds largest insurance company.

Not Buying This Rally

On the contrary normalcy is returning to the market as risk appetite returns.

Notable Picks from Investment Managers - Barron's

Actually Mid-America is owned by BRK.A

A Bull Market That Few Are Buying

My personal opinion is this rally is real and a positive feedback loop has now developed. It is very painful for people sitting on sidelines in cash to see the market shoot up 40%. It is especially painful for people who sold between Nov 20 and March 9. They are now rushing to get back in. The fear of losing all their money has been replaced by the fear of getting left behind. It is still a fear trade but of a different kind. Hence the sharp trajectory of the rally. Happens after every bear market.

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

I agree the "pull back" everyone is expecting may not happen any time soon. The S&P 500 has already pulled back 5% twice in its 30% climb from the bottom on March 9th.
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&st=2...
Every pull back is an invitation for more longs on the side lines to pile in