John Ryskamp

Leading Indicators for a Credit Contraction, Round 2

How much longer til U.S. sovereign debt default? The prelude is looming Japan sovereign debt default. Odd prelude is soon-to-be soaring dollar once Japan starts monetizing government debt (the next leg in the currency race to the bottom). Of course, the "the Japanese only owe their debt to themselves" mantra as always Ponzi-cum-kabuki.

There is no black swan to the "black swan"--the black swan has always been stashed behind the curtain, where's the surprise there? About to be brought out front, though.

The Coming Dollar Deflation

You are right. The dollar will strengthen until there is no more money to go into it. By that time, the on the ground U.S. economy will have deteriorated so disastrously that the dollar will also begin its plunge.

Don't look for an economic recovery in the U.S.--there isn't going to be one. Instead, the collapse will lead to a political crisis which will be the coup de grace of the U.S.