Barrick Should Dig For Better Deals And Pass On Kinross [View article]
To compuirv: Too many people at this blog have been whining about ABX management. I am satisfied with it; but adding Kinross to ABX just to get rid of Kinross management does not sound smart. In fact, it would probably be foolish unless ABX has access to some technology Kinross does not; which I doubt. You sound like one of those wall street people with no sense on actually running ABX, Kinross, or any other company. Are you?
Just because it looks like a possibility, does not mean from a practical point of view a merger or acquisition would be practical. Mergers or acquisitions from the ownership end are always messy at best. Owners rarely profit from mergers or acquisitions.
Wall street takes their cut leaving the new entity to put the pieces together; which can take years; and often just does not work. Sorry, you can suck eggs on your merger or acquisition thoughts on ABX and Kinross; based on the facts I know and partially presented here.
With the upside potential in the gold market being greater than any other upside market, a merger or acquisition is especially not sensible if the gold market takes off upward; a real possibility; though months to years off likely.
In an upside market, gold company managements will be running around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to maximize output at all of the existing properties; not even thinking of any additions.
If you can not think about the ramifications at the company or companies of any merger or acquisition; you are not only wasting your time, but looking very foolish; just like wall street, especially lately.
Barrick Gold (ABX -3.2%) is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral with an $18 price target (from $21.50) at Macquarie, which views ABX as a mature company with few opportunities to grow and high debt. The firm calls ABX's recent amendment to its Dominican Republic mine contract a dangerous precedent. [View news story]
I strongly disagree with Macquarie and disagree with anyone agreeing with the Macquarie analysis.
The gold discoveries in the N. America, Nevada, in particular, can likely be developed both quicker and at substantially less cost than the Pascua Lama project. If the Macquarie people and everyone else had been really listening to Chairman Munk at the Annual Meeting, they would have come away with at least this possibility; maybe a probability.
Or the future for ABX still looks very bright. Only the tunnel vision and selected vision people are having problems with ABX.
Analysts missing key and/or important facts. Nothing new with that other than we who were actually listening are forced to point it out.
Saying it has become uneasy with Barrick Gold's (ABX) approach to disposing of mining waste as well as its handling of community grievances, government retirement fund New Zealand Superannuation sells its entire stake in the miner, worth 1.9M New Zealand dollars (US$1.6M). The fund says ABX's activities are inconsistent with U.N. standards on human rights and the environment. Shares -1.3% premarket. [View news story]
So why are you not talking about all the gold miners and how they compare to the rest of the market and markets, stock by stock?
I presume by your statements on Barrick, Barrick having better fundamentals than practically all other stocks, the near complete market is going in the tank based on your assertions.
But of course, most of the rest of the market is not being deliberately manipulated like Barrick. The Manipulators recognizing their best long term gain is taking over Barrick by an unlawful orchestrated stock price push down; then a buy out at rock bottom pricing.
Between the lawsuits from institutional investors, governments observing and tracking this ABX stock price push down, a monumental court action appears likely to be in the offing.
To advocate such an offensive scenario must mean your life is a mess and your intent is to spread your mess around; no doubt with orchestrated help. Appears to me you are likely on some SEC list of people to watch along with your fellow conspirators.
Saying it has become uneasy with Barrick Gold's (ABX) approach to disposing of mining waste as well as its handling of community grievances, government retirement fund New Zealand Superannuation sells its entire stake in the miner, worth 1.9M New Zealand dollars (US$1.6M). The fund says ABX's activities are inconsistent with U.N. standards on human rights and the environment. Shares -1.3% premarket. [View news story]
That is what good socialists do. Spread the wealth around humanity.
The rest of us know resources are finite. The socialists still do no seem to grasp this finite resource concept. Otherwise, they certainly would not sell low; except to help line rich people's pockets.
Or, this upward redistribution of wealth notion is just nuts. Can you recommend a psychiatrist for them?
You must see this as likely a good situation. Moving money out of the hands of foolish people into the hands of people who not only understand but practice the ideas of finite resources in everything they do.
More importantly, into the hands of people who mathematically place value and prioritize everything they possess or have control. Also called scarce resource management, which all sane people keep front and center; which includes practically all resources.
Saying it has become uneasy with Barrick Gold's (ABX) approach to disposing of mining waste as well as its handling of community grievances, government retirement fund New Zealand Superannuation sells its entire stake in the miner, worth 1.9M New Zealand dollars (US$1.6M). The fund says ABX's activities are inconsistent with U.N. standards on human rights and the environment. Shares -1.3% premarket. [View news story]
Since when has this section of government in New Zealand had any sense? Glad they sold.
Snow in North America has 50 parts per billion mercury in it. Meaning after a dozen or so snowfalls, especially upon melting, the snow melt is on the edge of toxic. 1200 volcanoes on the planet and 25,0000 miles of ocean volcanic rift emissions over power all of humanity emissions by at least 100 to 1. Or humanities contribution to pollution is less than 1% of nature. Or, the persons in New Zealand who issued such a false and fraudulent statement need to be held accountable, the sooner the better.
Barrick labor record is as good or better than anyone on the planet. Or more fraud on the part of these people in New Zealand. Where are the attorneys to make these people pay for their criminal and fraudulent statements?
The Australian unit of China’s biggest gold producer Zijin Mining Group says it will look at bidding for three mines Barrick Gold (ABX) has put up for sale, signaling confidence in gold’s prospects. Chinese companies are stepping up deal activity in the gold sector while many of their big Western rivals are pulling back their spending. [View news story]
Bunch of dreamers. They could not or would not buy African Barrick Gold. Is there any real difference here between the African and latest sale offers? I do not see any real difference. Or more pot stirring and distractions. Refining gold are jobs one, two, and three. Not this property sales BS.
Better to shutter high cost properties rather than sell unless the fixed holding costs are too high; which I doubt. If the gold price suddenly goes back up and stays there for a while, selling any gold mine asset will look really stupid.
Better to think of high cost properties as part time properties because there is still a small chance the gold price could just balloon to $4000 per ounce or more. A high cost property suddenly becomes a low cost property.
Too even think about selling assets, the Barrick people must be listening to wall street again. Wall street fools intent on generating their own business, not increasing stockholders rate of return.
Wall street can take their tunnel vision self interest; and you know what they can do with it.
Who will build any kind of wall between wall street and Barrick management to stop these stupid distractions that would cost shareholders dearly in any significant gold market up trend?
Barrick Gold: A Compelling Risk/Reward Proposition [View article]
Thought yes. Time no. If I have to spend more than 15 minutes responding, it does not happen. These are thoughts that are obvious to me based on my career and training. I am only releasing them from my memory. But thanks for the kind words and thanks for the analysis.
Barrick Gold: A Compelling Risk/Reward Proposition [View article]
Thanks. I do not disagree with anything you have stated. You have just skirted around the main realistic issues of markets and products I have raised which are front and center for most prudent investors. And Mr. Rusfuture has not considered any of these front and center issues in his questions.
My intent is never arrogance, just the facts as know them. Might be part of my UNLV training, I am not sure. Or, the shortest route to reality usually gets the prize; and can come across as arrogance.
The temporary equity wipe out has already occurred with ABX stock price going from $55 to $19 when all of the ABX fundamentals are probably the best on the planet. How long this will last is the real question. Most people say markets are fickle, which means equity value is fickle or jaded; and should be viewed that way well down the list of significant facts.
You have raised questions or alternatives most companies can deal with; pick the best combination of alternatives to maximize shareholder return.
In discussing products and markets, these are the conditions companies must anticipate and/or react to; where the smart people are continually paying attention to avoid getting broad sided by some unexpected negative event which will negatively effect the bottom line.
In Barrick/ABXs case, everything within the company has been shown to be highly controllable; especially with time. Barrick's only high risks are when the public becomes involved; usually requiring long standing and detailed education of the public which can take months to years; and still have a negative unrealistic outcome.
You, like me have likely met people who have spent a lifetime not knowing and/or not caring what reality or the rational world is. And they will always be around to obstruct anything and everything.
Barrick missed this fundamental problem big time in developing Pascua Lama. With the latest North American gold deposit finds going off in three or four directions, it should be relative easy to switch; though financially painful in the short run.
Pascua Lama will still be there after all the hoopla and dust has settled on all of the disinformation floating around. You can always count on disinformation whenever the public becomes involved causing the situation or circumstance to be drawn out by a factor of ten to 100.
Or sound investment decisions are never lost, just delayed, maybe by as much as a generation or more.
Some big moves in today’s options trading make it appear that investors are banking on another drop in the gold miners ETF (GDX -3%), already -36% YTD. Volume in GDX options is heaviest in the June $27 strike puts, where nearly 40K puts have traded vs. open interest of ~16K contracts. Big miners are broadly lower: HMY -5.5%, GFI -5.2%, AU -3.2%, ABX -3.1%, EGO -2.8%, NEM -2.2%, GG -2%. [View news story]
Response and request to Mr Gold Theory.
I hate headaches. You must not have anything better to do. And having a life does not appear to be on your list either. When I was in graduate school, I tried tracking your kind of crap.
It was a headache back then too and left me wondering too often. Just too damn many permutations to keep track of. Or a really easy way to outsmart yourself.
So what is your secret? How do you sleep at night with all these variables floating around in your head. Have you come up with some kind of real time spread sheet to minimize the tracking headache? Or do you just like on going headaches? I guess that would make you a masochist.
Any functional and real advice on how you keep track and juggle this info, especially with real time trades would be appreciated. Or are you just a neophyte trying to be clever?
I presume you limit yourself in some way to keep your sanity. Which means getting you to supply your market operating plan I presume would be asking too much. Once the hedge fund sharks know how you operate, they are right there one step ahead of you to steal from you.
It is probably realistic to ask, if I have missed something, please advise.
Barrick Gold: A Compelling Risk/Reward Proposition [View article]
Response to Rusfuture.
Borrowings are usually planned on the worst case earnings scenario, most likely your $800 per ounce. Although, no one is forecasting $800 per ounce gold prices that I have seen. So your suggesting $800 per ounce gold prices as a worst case is probably not responsible.
Or the borrowing is designed to be nearly irrelevant to future debt interest rate increases. And old, low cost debt usually benefits from interest rate increases providing lower cost than what is available in the market. So Barrick appears to be very smart here buying all of this low cost debt with leverage that could range anywhere from 3% to 20% or more above the cost of future capital makes debt purchase now nearly brilliant.
With extreme government debt nearly everywhere and high unemployment, governments nearly everywhere are nearly desperate to get their economies moving. Meaning only a massive disruption in the gold market could bring gold prices down to $800 per ounce with more likely the opposite high side spike in gold prices from any disruption more likely.
Comparing any gold company to any consumer company like GM or Nortel is about as erroneous and unrealistic as it gets. Gold demand is highly inelastic compared to any consumer product. Or more simply, Gold suppliers are on a different planet than any consumer company. Also meaning, gold demand shocks result in huge upward price shocks usually because gold supply change is also highly inelastic. Or, gold supply is what it is and only changes slightly to moderately from one year to the next due to the huge size of the market compared to small producers and the extreme complexity of finding and refining large amounts of gold compared to the total market.
So all of your questions ignore most or all of the current gold market realities as detailed here and your not comparative realities. It is critical to keep fundamental market and product relationships front and center when doing any analysis. You have not done so based on my training. So have only provided us with a distraction unfortunately. Your effort is acknowledged however.
I recommend you do some expert reading before weighing in again, using their insights with your own to create what you believe to be the most realistic view. Since you have not yet done this, you are not even close.
Also, in analysis, it is best to just state the facts as you know them. Please do not go around stating what Mr. Market is saying. To date you barely have a clue and sound like a worry wort; which most of us appreciate in any case even though it is highly unrealistic.
All the best for the effort in any case. Just weighing in usually gets some kind of respect.
Why I Wouldn't Touch Barrick Gold With A Pick Axe [View article]
The unlawful and orchestrated short selling of ABX would be at least twice as easy with NEM, FCX, or any other gold company. And you think they are preferred over ABX? Your examination of all of the relevant facts are just too short or insufficient.
If your analyses are used with the added facts here, none of the gold companies are worth buying.
Based on ABX, all we have is proof wall street can take down nearly any stock they want to any time. Or buyer be extremely aware.
Of course it is only a segment of wall street that have caused the ABX debacle. Based on history, wall street is loath to expose wrong doers.
The Madoff case is proof of that.
So it is going to take a lot of government and public pressure to expose the criminals in the ABX shorting. Until this exposure of this unlawful activity is done, wary and stock avoidance are the watch words for probably too many people currently. And the market will most likely suffer for resources being placed at locations outside of their control due to this apparent unlawful activity.
Why I Wouldn't Touch Barrick Gold With A Pick Axe [View article]
The simpler way to put it: there are cash costs and all in costs. Or more complications. So looking at an income statement or actual cash flows will tell you what is going on, rather than getting into costs; which should be done anyway.
The cash portion of the accounting equation is usually the most direct to look at. But care is important there too because leverage supplied cash, or borrowed cash, or any kind of unearned cash can be hard to identify. This is important as a real and least complicated measure of corporate productivity; or the general or long term health of the corp., especially if looked at over multiple years.
Why I Wouldn't Touch Barrick Gold With A Pick Axe [View article]
Because Barrick probably has enough other silver production to meet the Silver Wheaton requirement, it is just a matter of diverting current sales. Or there should be no problem.
At the current downward pricing of silver, Silver Wheaton will likely not want to exercise their rights to purchase the 45 million ounces of Barrick silver due to the higher contract sales price above the market price.
Barrick will likely be more than happy to provide Silver Wheaton silver at the contract price from any and all sources; making Barrick themselves the new silver middle man. Probably not likely though.
Who knows the details of the contract with Silver Wheaton and will provide them here. As usual, the details are nearly everything.
The capitalization of all the other major gold producers are below or substantially below Barrick. Meaning, all the market manipulation trouble or short selling Barrick ABX stock has endured would put any other gold miner out of business.
If the market manipulators had wanted to, they could have targeted any of the other gold producers and put them out of business. Of course this invites a high level of regulatory scrutiny and would reduce market manipulation opportunities.
The ABX stock price drive down has probably been good for ABX in the long run removing or cleaning out a good part or majority of the non committed or manipulating ABX institutional stock holders. Chances institutional investors will come back after this downward stock price spiral due to unlawful orchestrated short selling is minimal or at least restricted. Of course time will tell.
So if you would not touch Barrick with a pick ax, you should not touch any of the other gold producers with a bull dozer; Cat or Komatsu or any other brand.
A Golden Stock With A Golden Income [View article]
Good one. Please show me your crystal ball. Or better yet, let us keep it real, list the forward looking variables you would analyze to come up with a forward looking picture. Then, show me your past forward looking analysis compared to the actual.
I do not think I could rely on anything you provided. So we would have to do this over at least several quarters on this blog. Are you up to this put up or shut proposal? Oh, and this for all of supposed forward thinkers just like you.
Now that I have given you the benefit of the doubt here on how to prove your your forward looking view, knowing which pie in the sky club you are a member would also be helpful. Or specifically, where on earth have you been getting your supposed forward thinking information. Knowing would probably help everyone here out.
In the real world, all steps are retraceable to infinity, or at least a very long time over many, may times; coming out the same way with the same inputs; or with changes accounted through standard mathematics. This is known as reality to everyone I know. Are you familiar with this front and center and only fully useful method of analysis? All accountants use this method. Why they at least appear substantially smarter than you are.
So call anyone backward you want to. Everyone I know will let the accounting and the rest of reality dictate what is going on as it always does; not any prognosticators.
Barrick Should Dig For Better Deals And Pass On Kinross [View article]
Just because it looks like a possibility, does not mean from a practical point of view a merger or acquisition would be practical. Mergers or acquisitions from the ownership end are always messy at best. Owners rarely profit from mergers or acquisitions.
Wall street takes their cut leaving the new entity to put the pieces together; which can take years; and often just does not work. Sorry, you can suck eggs on your merger or acquisition thoughts on ABX and Kinross; based on the facts I know and partially presented here.
With the upside potential in the gold market being greater than any other upside market, a merger or acquisition is especially not sensible if the gold market takes off upward; a real possibility; though months to years off likely.
In an upside market, gold company managements will be running around like chickens with their heads cut off trying to maximize output at all of the existing properties; not even thinking of any additions.
If you can not think about the ramifications at the company or companies of any merger or acquisition; you are not only wasting your time, but looking very foolish; just like wall street, especially lately.
Barrick Gold (ABX -3.2%) is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral with an $18 price target (from $21.50) at Macquarie, which views ABX as a mature company with few opportunities to grow and high debt. The firm calls ABX's recent amendment to its Dominican Republic mine contract a dangerous precedent. [View news story]
The gold discoveries in the N. America, Nevada, in particular, can likely be developed both quicker and at substantially less cost than the Pascua Lama project. If the Macquarie people and everyone else had been really listening to Chairman Munk at the Annual Meeting, they would have come away with at least this possibility; maybe a probability.
Or the future for ABX still looks very bright. Only the tunnel vision and selected vision people are having problems with ABX.
Analysts missing key and/or important facts. Nothing new with that other than we who were actually listening are forced to point it out.
Saying it has become uneasy with Barrick Gold's (ABX) approach to disposing of mining waste as well as its handling of community grievances, government retirement fund New Zealand Superannuation sells its entire stake in the miner, worth 1.9M New Zealand dollars (US$1.6M). The fund says ABX's activities are inconsistent with U.N. standards on human rights and the environment. Shares -1.3% premarket. [View news story]
I presume by your statements on Barrick, Barrick having better fundamentals than practically all other stocks, the near complete market is going in the tank based on your assertions.
But of course, most of the rest of the market is not being deliberately manipulated like Barrick. The Manipulators recognizing their best long term gain is taking over Barrick by an unlawful orchestrated stock price push down; then a buy out at rock bottom pricing.
Between the lawsuits from institutional investors, governments observing and tracking this ABX stock price push down, a monumental court action appears likely to be in the offing.
To advocate such an offensive scenario must mean your life is a mess and your intent is to spread your mess around; no doubt with orchestrated help. Appears to me you are likely on some SEC list of people to watch along with your fellow conspirators.
Saying it has become uneasy with Barrick Gold's (ABX) approach to disposing of mining waste as well as its handling of community grievances, government retirement fund New Zealand Superannuation sells its entire stake in the miner, worth 1.9M New Zealand dollars (US$1.6M). The fund says ABX's activities are inconsistent with U.N. standards on human rights and the environment. Shares -1.3% premarket. [View news story]
The rest of us know resources are finite. The socialists still do no
seem to grasp this finite resource concept. Otherwise, they certainly would not sell low; except to help line rich people's pockets.
Or, this upward redistribution of wealth notion is just nuts. Can you recommend a psychiatrist for them?
You must see this as likely a good situation. Moving money out of the hands of foolish people into the hands of people who not only understand but practice the ideas of finite resources in everything they do.
More importantly, into the hands of people who mathematically place value and prioritize everything they possess
or have control. Also called scarce resource management, which all sane people keep front and center; which includes practically all resources.
Saying it has become uneasy with Barrick Gold's (ABX) approach to disposing of mining waste as well as its handling of community grievances, government retirement fund New Zealand Superannuation sells its entire stake in the miner, worth 1.9M New Zealand dollars (US$1.6M). The fund says ABX's activities are inconsistent with U.N. standards on human rights and the environment. Shares -1.3% premarket. [View news story]
Snow in North America has 50 parts per billion mercury in it.
Meaning after a dozen or so snowfalls, especially upon melting, the
snow melt is on the edge of toxic. 1200 volcanoes on the planet and 25,0000 miles of ocean volcanic rift emissions over power all of humanity emissions by at least 100 to 1. Or humanities contribution to pollution is less than 1% of nature. Or, the persons in New Zealand who issued such a false and fraudulent statement need to be held accountable, the sooner the better.
Barrick labor record is as good or better than anyone on the planet.
Or more fraud on the part of these people in New Zealand. Where are the attorneys to make these people pay for their criminal and fraudulent statements?
The Australian unit of China’s biggest gold producer Zijin Mining Group says it will look at bidding for three mines Barrick Gold (ABX) has put up for sale, signaling confidence in gold’s prospects. Chinese companies are stepping up deal activity in the gold sector while many of their big Western rivals are pulling back their spending. [View news story]
Better to shutter high cost properties rather than sell unless the fixed holding costs are too high; which I doubt. If the gold price suddenly goes back up and stays there for a while, selling any gold mine asset will look really stupid.
Better to think of high cost properties as part time properties because there is still a small chance the gold price could just balloon to $4000 per ounce or more. A high cost property suddenly becomes a low cost property.
Too even think about selling assets, the Barrick people must be listening to wall street again. Wall street fools intent on generating their own business, not increasing stockholders rate of return.
Wall street can take their tunnel vision self interest; and you know
what they can do with it.
Who will build any kind of wall between wall street and Barrick management to stop these stupid distractions that would cost shareholders dearly in any significant gold market up trend?
Barrick Gold: A Compelling Risk/Reward Proposition [View article]
Barrick Gold: A Compelling Risk/Reward Proposition [View article]
My intent is never arrogance, just the facts as know them. Might be part of my UNLV training, I am not sure. Or, the shortest route to reality usually gets the prize; and can come across as arrogance.
The temporary equity wipe out has already occurred with ABX stock price going from $55 to $19 when all of the ABX fundamentals are probably the best on the planet. How long this will last is the real question. Most people say markets are fickle, which means equity value is fickle or jaded; and should be viewed that way well down the list of significant facts.
You have raised questions or alternatives most companies can deal with; pick the best combination of alternatives to maximize shareholder return.
In discussing products and markets, these are the conditions companies must anticipate and/or react to; where the smart people are continually paying attention to avoid getting broad sided by some unexpected negative event which will negatively effect the bottom line.
In Barrick/ABXs case, everything within the company has been shown to be highly controllable; especially with time. Barrick's only high risks are when the public becomes involved; usually requiring long standing and detailed education of the public which can take months to years; and still have a negative unrealistic outcome.
You, like me have likely met people who have spent a lifetime not knowing and/or not caring what reality or the rational world is.
And they will always be around to obstruct anything and everything.
Barrick missed this fundamental problem big time in developing Pascua Lama. With the latest North American gold deposit finds going off in three or four directions, it should be relative easy to switch; though financially painful in the short run.
Pascua Lama will still be there after all the hoopla and dust has settled on all of the disinformation floating around. You can always count on disinformation whenever the public becomes involved
causing the situation or circumstance to be drawn out by a factor of ten to 100.
Or sound investment decisions are never lost, just delayed, maybe by as much as a generation or more.
I mention all of this in support of your article.
Some big moves in today’s options trading make it appear that investors are banking on another drop in the gold miners ETF (GDX -3%), already -36% YTD. Volume in GDX options is heaviest in the June $27 strike puts, where nearly 40K puts have traded vs. open interest of ~16K contracts. Big miners are broadly lower: HMY -5.5%, GFI -5.2%, AU -3.2%, ABX -3.1%, EGO -2.8%, NEM -2.2%, GG -2%. [View news story]
I hate headaches. You must not have anything better to do. And having a life does not appear to be on your list either. When I was in graduate school, I tried tracking your kind of crap.
It was a headache back then too and left me wondering too often.
Just too damn many permutations to keep track of. Or a really easy way to outsmart yourself.
So what is your secret? How do you sleep at night with all these variables floating around in your head. Have you come up with some kind of real time spread sheet to minimize the tracking headache? Or do you just like on going headaches? I guess that would make you a masochist.
Any functional and real advice on how you keep track and juggle this info, especially with real time trades would be appreciated.
Or are you just a neophyte trying to be clever?
I presume you limit yourself in some way to keep your sanity.
Which means getting you to supply your market operating plan I presume would be asking too much. Once the hedge fund sharks know how you operate, they are right there one step ahead of you to steal from you.
It is probably realistic to ask, if I have missed something, please advise.
Barrick Gold: A Compelling Risk/Reward Proposition [View article]
Borrowings are usually planned on the worst case earnings scenario, most likely your $800 per ounce. Although, no one is forecasting $800 per ounce gold prices that I have seen. So your suggesting $800 per ounce gold prices as a worst case is probably not responsible.
Or the borrowing is designed to be nearly irrelevant to future debt interest rate increases. And old, low cost debt usually benefits from interest rate increases providing lower cost than what is available in the market. So Barrick appears to be very smart here buying all of this low cost debt with leverage that could range anywhere from 3% to 20% or more above the cost of future capital makes debt purchase now nearly brilliant.
With extreme government debt nearly everywhere and high unemployment, governments nearly everywhere are nearly desperate to get their economies moving. Meaning only a massive disruption in the gold market could bring gold prices down to $800 per ounce with more likely the opposite high side spike in gold prices from any disruption more likely.
Comparing any gold company to any consumer company like GM or Nortel is about as erroneous and unrealistic as it gets. Gold demand is highly inelastic compared to any consumer product. Or more simply, Gold suppliers are on a different planet than any consumer company. Also meaning, gold demand shocks result in huge upward price shocks usually because gold supply change is also highly inelastic. Or, gold supply is what it is and only changes slightly to moderately from one year to the next due to the huge size of the market compared to small producers and the extreme complexity of finding and refining large amounts of gold compared to the total market.
So all of your questions ignore most or all of the current gold market realities as detailed here and your not comparative realities. It is critical to keep fundamental market and product relationships front and center when doing any analysis. You have not done so based on my training. So have only provided us with a distraction unfortunately. Your effort is acknowledged however.
I recommend you do some expert reading before weighing in again,
using their insights with your own to create what you believe to be the most realistic view. Since you have not yet done this, you are not even close.
Also, in analysis, it is best to just state the facts as you know them.
Please do not go around stating what Mr. Market is saying. To date you barely have a clue and sound like a worry wort; which most of us appreciate in any case even though it is highly unrealistic.
All the best for the effort in any case. Just weighing in usually gets some kind of respect.
Why I Wouldn't Touch Barrick Gold With A Pick Axe [View article]
If your analyses are used with the added facts here, none of the gold companies are worth buying.
Based on ABX, all we have is proof wall street can take down nearly any stock they want to any time. Or buyer be extremely aware.
Of course it is only a segment of wall street that have caused the ABX debacle. Based on history, wall street is loath to expose wrong doers.
The Madoff case is proof of that.
So it is going to take a lot of government and public pressure to expose the criminals in the ABX shorting. Until this exposure of this unlawful activity is done, wary and stock avoidance are the watch words for probably too many people currently. And the market will most likely suffer for resources being placed at locations outside of their control due to this apparent unlawful activity.
Why I Wouldn't Touch Barrick Gold With A Pick Axe [View article]
Or more complications. So looking at an income statement or actual cash flows will tell you what is going on, rather than getting into costs; which should be done anyway.
The cash portion of the accounting equation is usually the most direct to look at. But care is important there too because leverage supplied cash, or borrowed cash, or any kind of unearned cash can be hard to identify. This is important as a real and least complicated measure of corporate productivity; or the general or long term health of the corp., especially if looked at over multiple years.
Why I Wouldn't Touch Barrick Gold With A Pick Axe [View article]
Why I Wouldn't Touch Barrick Gold With A Pick Axe [View article]
At the current downward pricing of silver, Silver Wheaton will likely not want to exercise their rights to purchase the 45 million ounces of Barrick silver due to the higher contract sales price above the market price.
Barrick will likely be more than happy to provide Silver Wheaton silver at the contract price from any and all sources; making Barrick themselves the new silver middle man. Probably not likely though.
Who knows the details of the contract with Silver Wheaton and will provide them here. As usual, the details are nearly everything.
The capitalization of all the other major gold producers are below or substantially below Barrick. Meaning, all the market manipulation trouble or short selling Barrick ABX stock has endured would put any other gold miner out of business.
If the market manipulators had wanted to, they could have targeted any of the other gold producers and put them out of business. Of course this invites a high level of regulatory scrutiny and would reduce market manipulation opportunities.
The ABX stock price drive down has probably been good for ABX in the long run removing or cleaning out a good part or majority of the non committed or manipulating ABX institutional stock holders.
Chances institutional investors will come back after this downward stock price spiral due to unlawful orchestrated short selling
is minimal or at least restricted. Of course time will tell.
So if you would not touch Barrick with a pick ax, you should not touch any of the other gold producers with a bull dozer; Cat or Komatsu or any other brand.
A Golden Stock With A Golden Income [View article]
I do not think I could rely on anything you provided. So we would have to do this over at least several quarters on this blog. Are you up to this put up or shut proposal? Oh, and this for all of supposed forward thinkers just like you.
Now that I have given you the benefit of the doubt here on how to prove your your forward looking view, knowing which pie in the sky club you are a member would also be helpful. Or specifically, where on earth have you been getting your supposed forward thinking information. Knowing would probably help everyone here out.
In the real world, all steps are retraceable to infinity, or at least a very long time over many, may times; coming out the same way with the same inputs; or with changes accounted through standard mathematics. This is known as reality to everyone I know. Are you familiar with this front and center and only fully useful method of analysis? All accountants use this method. Why they at least appear substantially smarter than you are.
So call anyone backward you want to. Everyone I know will let the accounting and the rest of reality dictate what is going on as it always does; not any prognosticators.