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  • Barrick Gold: This Stock Is A Buy  [View article]
    To Turville. Reading Barrick annual reports in addition to the most credible analysts around at Credit Suisse and RBS Capital above, and you still insist upon contradicting their information. It is usually good to be a contrarian, if in fact you any facts to back you up. You have not presented any. In fact you have it backwards on some.

    Specifically, weakening currencies mean upward gold prices. The only consideration left is what is the lag; not known until you actually see it.

    Indians repeatedly insist their government do the right thing; and let them know at the voting booth. And remarkably, the right thing usually happens. Why India has done so well to date and will likely continue to surprise you.

    The gold price has been trending down. I and no one I know would call it stuttering. Compared to currency trading where the real speculators reside, gold prices look rock solid; though trending down.

    I have taken the time to refute everything you have stated. So your
    conclusion ABX is a dog not only flies in the face of Credit Suisse and RBS
    analysts, your refuted info leaves you almost completely isolated.

    Maybe that does not matter to you. But I have taken the time to point out
    how out of touch you are with the thought you may re examine what you have
    stated and how unrealistic and silly it is compared to what Credit Suisse and
    RBS have stated.

    Crediblity matters and if you had any, you have lost it. Why waste time with
    pie in the sky propaganda. What axe are you grinding? My bet is nearly everyone
    reading this blog is asking this same question.

    Or, please stop howling at the moon, it just will not change no matter what.
    Mar 31, 2014. 05:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick announces new pay scheme, may add two more new directors  [View news story]
    The word smith dancing appears distracting. So they want to avoid paying people up front without proven performance first. Earn your salary and perks and collect them after you have earned them. Sounds very standard and very prudent.

    It is certainly a wonderful thought the private sector appears to be the only place left where people are actually required to earn what they are paid.
    Mar 31, 2014. 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gold Rally May Not Last Long; Challenge For Barrick Gold?  [View article]
    Two very serious apparent errors in the authors report. It is the value of the gold reserves corresponding to the drop in gold prices; not the amount of gold available for mining that has changed.

    The current capitalization or owners equity of ABX is around $26 billion;
    and has been as high as $45 billion based on the stock price. So if the debt is $13 billion, then the debt to equity ratio is about 0.5; not 81!!!!!!!!

    A serious revision by the author is in order. We avoid academic exercises here,
    and the authors report is a classic example why. Two serious errors make the
    report meaningless; but an interesting and distracting first iteration; for a reprieve for the author whoever her professor is.
    Mar 31, 2014. 03:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold, Newmont target prices raised as Credit Suisse but shares tank  [View news story]
    To Mr. Lujan. So the Chinese are betting against the rest of the government banks that they will not be able to keep their currencies stable by intervening in gold markets whenever they need to. Or it is simply insurance for the Chinese against a worst case scenario of government banks temporarily losing control of gold markets. Or a combination of both.

    It is difficult to place odds on the above scenarios. Best estimate: government banks temporarily losing control of gold markets: less than 15% chance, probably less than 5% chance. So to protect their civilization, China is buying gold as insurance against the worst case scenario of other government banks losing control or temporary control of gold markets.

    The Chinese have the organizational skills from over 3000 years of civilization
    to continue to out produce the rest of the planet and pay the figurative gold insurance premium against the worst case huge sudden world wide currency
    debasement scenario by holding more gold than any other country. Or and
    also, the Chinese government is probably the only government that can
    afford to pay these figurative economic gold premiums; which of course
    help prop up gold prices as you have asserted.

    Though you can be certain the world wide gold market is bigger than any
    individual government to control; and probably bigger than a group of
    governments to control in a worst case scenario; at least in a temporary
    situation. Where a catastrophe or a gold market run a way occurs,
    you can bet in days to no more than a week or two, government banks
    working together will stop any run a way inflation, or gold prices going
    into orbit; to protect their currencies.

    Based on my last readings, Chinese gold inventories are the lowest of any
    industrial or large country. So yes, the Chinese will be buying gold on the sly
    for the foreseeable future; a permanent new gold demand source.

    What you have not accounted, gold supply, probably for the first time in history
    can and has outpaced gold demand, due to the temporary large recent upward price trend to over $1600 per ounce.

    The net supply demand adjustment will occur with small gold miners adjusting
    production up and down with gold pricing; or idling operations when or if demand falls suddenly. And the large cap gold miners holding the main stream gold market with their low supply gold costs will continue to make a good

    So the probability of a history repeat of temporary and sudden worthless government currency anywhere due to some market catastrophe is probably
    less than 5%; I believe based on all the presented facts here less than 1%.

    The above is the most realistic amalgam (a gold term with generic meaning) assessment of gold market facts and why your conclusion of any worthless paper currency anywhere is probably erroneous.
    Mar 30, 2014. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold, Newmont target prices raised as Credit Suisse but shares tank  [View news story]
    To Mr Lujan. Sorry. That is not what is going on. Government banks are buying on reduced gold prices and selling on increased gold prices to try and keep the gold price as stable as possible to protect their currencies.

    Government banks goal is stable to downward trending gold prices to keep
    or increase the value of their currencies.

    So your partial information is giving you erroneous conclusions.

    This above scenario will likely not change much if at all in the next
    five years.

    Of course there is always the chance of a market blip, up or down,
    too quick for the government banks to react to.

    Or the super quick traders likely engineer these blips to make
    a buck when they think they need to.
    Mar 25, 2014. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold, Newmont target prices raised as Credit Suisse but shares tank  [View news story]
    The long term, up to 5 years, is stable to downward trending gold prices if government banks have their way; and they almost always do; at least for the time being.

    The junior gold suppliers are probably a terrible bet, being undercut by the large
    cap gold miners with better and greater production efficiencies. There is always an exception somewhere if you like high risk.

    We can probably agree the gold price is at least stable to slightly downward trending over the next 5 years favoring the large gold producers. As cut throat
    competition takes over the rest of the government bank mandated slow growth economy, gold should still be looking relatively stable with average to above average revenues and income.

    Or the place to be to earn at least an average to decent return is large cap gold miners/suppliers over the next five years or so.
    Mar 24, 2014. 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold: A Significant Rebound Is In Play  [View article]
    Forget GS. They are only market makers and accomodators. The U.S. Federal Reserve and other sovereign banks absolutely need to keep gold prices flat or
    downward trending to protect their currencies. The big banks are in control, at least for the time being.

    The sovereign banks will not allow any market chaos, crashes, surges, or anything
    that disrupts market predictability which businesses do more than demand; they
    insist upon in order to make any money. With any market disruptions that affect
    them, most businesses will shut down, or move, or do anything to avoid any kind
    of negative event upon their business; which rules for the foreseeable future.

    Or as long as sovereign banks have control; any kind of control; which most
    people see as very good for economic growth, gold prices will be stable to
    downward trending.

    While it never hurts to stay alert for any market disruptions, the odds are very
    low for any market disruptions, at least for the next 5 years or so. Which means
    stable to downward trending gold prices for the next 5 years or so.

    And with anything in any market, there are always market blips, up and down.
    The only question is how fast will government banks intervene when they think they need to.

    The gold prices and trend lines of the last 6 months appear to be a good indication of how, when, and how much government banks will intervene in gold markets.
    Unless you know how to dig real deep for info, you or we will not know the extent of gold market intervention until it is old history.
    Mar 24, 2014. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold: A Significant Rebound Is In Play  [View article]
    The current gold market is not a place for traders. Or, if you need to watch stock prices daily, gold stocks and gold prices are not for you. If you understand the relative competitive position of your stock holdings within their market; and know your stock or stocks are in either the best or one of the best top three or so competitive positions such as ABX; and you have patience, then ABX or maybe some of their large competitors are for you.

    If all of the above does not apply to you, you should find a safer and/or more stable investment. If your investment horizon is not at least 2 years, probably 3 to 6 years, gold stocks and gold prices are also not for you.
    Mar 20, 2014. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Corporation: March Long-Term Pick  [View article]
    To Mark0f0. There is a solution though. The SEC needs direct competition and support from a congressional special operation to examine all of the wall street mischief; propose sanctions to the SEC, Congress, and the American people; especially the American people so states attorney generals can take
    them on direct.

    We do not need a repeat of the Elliot Spitzer set up. It is really easy to make enemies and have them set you up as evidenced by Mr. Spitzer.
    It can be hell being human and Mr. Spitzer certainly appears to have
    been crucified for being human because he took more than a few
    mischief makers to task for their BS.

    Take on the wall street crowd? Better make sure your personal life
    is in order. Because they will pick apart every inch of your personal
    life if you manage to irritate or inconvenience them based on Mr. Spitzer's wall street events.

    A five year mandate with a renewal capability seems appropriate for
    a congressional special operation. There are a significant minority of U.S. Senators and Congressmen willing to take on wall street and all their BS. And I am front and center urging them on.

    I should add, the BS is most likely a very small minority of players.
    The problem is it is likely in the $billions to $trillions of dollars.
    Mar 18, 2014. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Corporation: March Long-Term Pick  [View article]
    To Mark0f0. I suppose ABX still being shorted is possible, but probably not
    likely, based on the low price in the high teens and low twentys. What is
    the probability of the ABX stock price going back to $15 per share or less?
    5%, maybe as high as 15% chance? The fixed costs according to my
    broker of holding a short is the dividend plus the margin rate, currently
    at 5%. So unless the shorter has a high probability of success, which is
    not currently the case for ABX, the fixed shorting costs are too high
    for ABX.

    ABX stock can not fall far enough with a current price in the teens and twentys to make it worthwhile to short ABX stock.

    Or shorting is an internal large player market game where the internal margin costs can be avoided by substitute holdings. There is usually
    a trick to nearly everything favoring large players over small ones.

    Level playing fields are a myth. And the government still looks near
    clueless. Or more likely does not need to care until it bites them big
    time. But they are all experts at running for cover and not knowing
    a thing. The hear no evil, see no evil, do no evil entertainment crowd.
    But you gotta love em. In theory, place holders are better than
    nothing, so they say. I am still wondering though.
    Mar 18, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold: A Significant Rebound Is In Play  [View article]
    To shughes1116. On the contrary. The wall street propaganda from 6 to 12 months back is almost gone. 6 to 12 months ago there were opinions galore with little or no backup; or no connection to past facts. Hard to find, but they are around.

    We have probably been at or near a Dow30 and S&P500 near market top
    for 6 months or more; with the probability of these markets waffling or
    moving laterally for maybe 2 to 3 years or more based on the Federal
    Reserve slow growth plans. These historic highs are based on real
    numbers and real index numbers, or the actual market values themselves, not some very distant correlation.

    Gold and precious metals on the other hand, at least for Barrick and the other large cap gold miners, still have good margins at existing prices
    and will have good margins even if the gold price slides down some,
    say 3% to 10%.

    With inflation on the brains of practically all resource holders, and sovereign banks intent on inflating their way out of their debt ( of course no one will admit it), gold demand should stay at least stable, may even grow.

    Correlating what appears to be some fiction writers to market tops appears to be one very huge stretch.

    I urge you to try some economic indicator correlation. That has at least some historic comparison and reality to it; and real possible connections
    to future changes and outcomes.
    Mar 17, 2014. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Corporation: March Long-Term Pick  [View article]
    To Domovyk. Yamana with a P/E of 25, there is no way to play it; unless they can double their earnings reducing the P/E to 12.5; probably not likely. And looking at past general stats as an indicator of the future is usually trouble.

    I strongly urge you to look at the company projections, compare them to
    past projections and then compare the past projections to how they
    actually turned out. From this kind of analysis you can at least get
    in the ballpark of whether current projections are realistic. Especially
    if you look at the current market gold prices. These data sets should give you an indication if Barrick can attain their current projections.

    Based on past Barrick readings, they take great pride in performing to at
    least their projected expectations; and are usually jubilant whenever they
    exceed their projections. Or a good way to get close to what is real;
    where you want to be; know within a few percent what the income and
    expenses will be so the expected yield has the same accuracy. Or what the dividend is likely to be. From this info, Barrick stock holding institutions appear to set their level of investment, up or down; telling where the stock price is likely to go. Or it appears the Barrick ABX stock price goes up with institutional buy ins; and down on the reverse.

    The last two years have been the exception with short sellers dominating the scene; which appears to now be over and the previous model as detailed above now being operative again.
    Mar 14, 2014. 10:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Corporation: March Long-Term Pick  [View article]
    Yes sir Mr. Johnston. I have always been convinced the cash flow of the gold miners, Barrick ABX in particular would stay at least level to moderate, if not strong; and will continue to do so. Gold demand is not going away. Prices may fizzle, stay flat, or even decline. But that is a minor inconvenience to Barrick with their relative low costs compared to the other miners.

    With the underlying core assets of Barrick, the underlying bashing of Barrick that has gone on the last two years and has been almost exclusively political with no reality to it based on all appearances, Barrick will be profitable when no other
    gold miners are and when or if the rest of the stock market goes flat from cut throat competition from slow growth mandated by central banks.

    I used to have respect for central banks; and probably still do. However,
    while their increase in the money supply M2 through bond buying has been
    laudable, their targeting appears very mediocre, maybe foolish.

    Seeing the large resource holders get even more resources or money without
    significant results now for what, at least 3 years, probably 5 years certainly
    tells me the bond buying has gone to the wrong people.

    Bypassing wall street in any and every possible way will probably
    create non visible economic efficiencies. Wall street appears to be
    the new center for indifference to efficiency; or at least a good
    appearance of indifference efficiency.

    Wall street has turned into an oligopoly. And picking oligopolies apart
    is government job one or two or one and two depending on your
    point of view.

    Every time I look close at anything going on, on wall street, I usually get
    annoyed. And it is usually hard to annoy me; but these wall street
    people seem to be experts at annoying small investors.

    Though no one will admit it, poop on the small fish has been the order of
    the day probably for five years or longer by wall street. Any way to
    shake up the wall street cob webs is probably a good idea. Nothing
    appears to have worked so far.

    It appears to be an SEC job to go rattle some wall street cages with
    this divergent and opaque stock market; and they have not done so yet.

    With the DOW30 and the S&P500 at historic highs and marginal returns
    and marginal yields, repeating 1929 is highly undesirable in any form
    or any way. The financial picture looks onerous regretfully. With
    different rules in place, a repeat of 1929 is unlikely. But it is just
    unnerving to look at historic stock market highs and almost no one
    making any real returns. Or there is something figuratively rotten
    in figurative Denmark; and everyone appears oblivious to it;
    especially central banks.
    Mar 13, 2014. 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold: A Significant Rebound Is In Play  [View article]
    Thank you Mr. Johnston. Your writing has turned from trader to concise
    analysis; greatly appreciated. As a holder of AAUKY, would you take a stab
    at a concise analysis of AAUKY?

    About 5 or 6 months back, one analyst here suggested selling their
    core platinum producing assets, or some of them; which seemed
    like an insane suggestion. Better to sell off non core assets and
    get better at their core business again, platinum; based on my

    There appears to be way too much politics going on in the boardroom
    at AAUKY not too dissimilar from ABX; or way too many non essential
    distractions from running the business. If you have any corporate
    info on the focus of AAUKY management, that would also be
    Mar 13, 2014. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold Corporation: March Long-Term Pick  [View article]
    Reprinting my table due to the line shift:
    One more try.

    Forward Cap P/B P/S Price/cf
    P/E Yield $bil
    ABX %
    12.6 1.72 23.7 1.7 1.5 4.5
    21.8 2.21 22.4 1.1 4.8 15.4
    18.1 1.55 5.8 0.9 1.4 5.8
    25.0 2.41 8.5 1.0 3.7 9.1
    Mar 12, 2014. 12:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment