Did U Think The Ponzi Scheme Would Last?

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158 Comments

    • Tue Sep 2nd 13:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy
      I think it would be instructive for you to learn how to read a mania chart.

      Then go look at the dow.

      Then look at the mania chart example again (Prechter's book has a few good ones).

      Then look at the Nikkei 225 over the past 2 decades.

      Then glance back at the mania chart examples like tulipmania and south sea trading.

      Then review the dow one last time.

      See a pattern?

      Now look at all the charts of financial stocks one at a time.

      See a pattern?

      Now look at the FDX chart.

      See a pattern?

      Now look at DE.

      See a pattern?

      If you haven't gotten the point by now then you are not very good at pattern matching.
      View article »
    • Tue Sep 2nd 12:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where Are the Bank Failures in This Financial Crisis?
      One more thing. While lending standards are increasing rapidly in many cases, the home loans are still rolling out the door for 6% and change (cheap money), and there is still a fha jumbo loan program which will cover 97% (easy money). The reason the fha thing is still happening is that fannie and freddie have been told to treat this as a conforming loan.

      Soon fannie and freddie will be nationalized as they are currently insolvent. The taxpayer will demand that the cheap and easy money spigot be cut off because nobody really wants to subsidize a purchase of homes for rich people. That means real interest rates will go up in the market place for this jumbos. At the same time, fannie and freddie have a huge debt refi coming up in Q4 to the tune of 230 billion. Nobody is going to loan them money at 3% anymore. They will have to pay 7-8% at least IMO. That means fnm and fre can not lend that money out at 6% anymore. The debt refi will send fnm and fre over the edge and will be declared insolvent. Real interest rates have no choice but to go up. That hold true for money borrowed by consumers as well as that borrowed by banks.

      The explosion has gone off in the dam. The cracks have formed and the water is trickling through right now. Just give a little time for nature to take its course. The dam will burst, it just takes patience to watch for it.
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    • Tue Sep 2nd 12:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where Are the Bank Failures in This Financial Crisis?
      Better bank living through better book cooking. It is quite clear that there is still a lot of toxic stuff out there that is not seeing the light of day yet.

      The real question is whether you really can fool all the people all the time. I don't think so.
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    • Sun Aug 31st 03:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      California Home Sales: 43% Year Over Year Increase!
      Housing must come down to the point where a person can buy it on a 30 year mortgage with 20% down while leaving him money for raising a family. Sorry, a 300k house simply doesn't meet that criteria for most people. Even the old adage of spending 2.5x your gross is really a stretch for most people and it only made sense if housing was going up every year. Well, you can fugging forget that now. If we end up with Japan style deflation like it seems we will, housing went down for over a decade, just like their stock market did.

      I used to live in CA but its too expensive to work there because they want 8% state income tax so they can waste it on stuff that isn't needed. I like working in TX where the property tax is higher but nothing like what it would cost me to pay 8+% income tax.
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    • Wed Aug 27th 03:15 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Macro Trends Spell Doom for Banks and Their Profits
      Dear Mr. Cosby,
      I really love that "Fat Albert" skit you used to do.
      -A Fan.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 26th 04:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      More 'Workouts', But Will They Stem Foreclosure Tide? [Housing Tracker]
      Houses are assets, just like stocks. Oftentimes when we are in a bear market for stocks after a huge runup people jump in thinking they are getting this great deal only to find that the asset continues to fall in value. For stocks it can sometimes be difficult to know when you are "catching the falling knife". However, for houses it is a good deal easier. If you are buying without 20% down then you are still catching the falling knife. Likewise if you are paying more than 2.5x your salary. Perhaps the best test is whether you can rent the house out at a reasonable profit or not.

      But buyers should really be worried about the jingle mail law which allows a tax holiday for the forgiven part of any loan that was jingle mailed on. This law expires Dec 31 2009 and you can bet there are a lot of homeowners standing by to jingle mail before that deadline if things don't get better because after a big bubble pops like this you can bet reflating it will take decades, not quarters to accomplish. It simply is not worth the risk of staying in a house that you are underwater 50 or 100 or 200k in if you can bail on it without paying the normal tax hit. That's a gift from the IRS plain and simple.
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    • Mon Aug 25th 04:01 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Annual M2 Growth Is Nothing Like the 1970s
      Childisly simple analysis does not take into account the liklihood of a huge increase in the velocity of money as all those foreigners lose confidence in our money system due to things like FNM and FRE and all the other bail outs that will be placed on not just the backs of US tax payers but of ALL holders of the USD through the magic of inflation.

      Think of it like the ice caps melting and raising sea level by 200 feet. Also, you fail to even touch on the part which (diminished) production plays in inflation. When production falls (i.e. recession) relative to the money supply, that is inflationary. You again end up with too much money chasing too few goods.
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    • Sun Aug 24th 19:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Looming Financial Catastrophe: A Real Inconvenient Truth
      Ron Paul tried to run for president. Did everyone of you above vote for him in the primaries, tell all your families and friends about him, and donate to his campaign?

      Of course not, because Americans talk a good game but generally don't do jack $hit until they absolutely have to, and then it's a bandaid minimal solution AKA "short term fix".

      If you want to fix this, stop using their money. Get as much of your assets into gold and silver as possible. Only after there is a crisis of confidence in the USD will there be any change.

      Note to the author: this looks like a script straight from PGPF and indeed has so many details that I assume you got help from them. Bravo. But in the post you both praise buffet for being part of the Peterson gang trying to fix things while talking about the "sun is rising" crowd.

      What the FRAK was Buffet during the debate portion of the IOUSA premiere if not "sun is rising" "will grow our way out" "don't worry be happy"???

      With that "token Pollyanna" act, Buffet has fooled a LOT of people into believing they can just maintain status quo. His name is well recognized and they will follow him on this because, like any good politician, he told them what they really wanted to hear. Buffet deserves a full glass of fine wine splashed in his fat face for what he did. Only the good stuff from France, of course.
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    • Sun Aug 24th 18:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Quick Review of I.O.U.S.A.
      There is no more 2 party system. It's now the uniparty. It's a gov't not for or by the people but in spite of the people. The gov't is no longer the servant, it is the rancher and everyone else is sheeple meant to be harvested. Stop the partisan bickering. Partisanship is a tool of the Uniparty and is meant to distract us so that we don't see and react to what is really going on.

      As for the movie, the debut had the debate at the end and I think Warren Buffet has officially sold himself out. On one hand he states in the press that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people imagine. He also talks about derivitives as being weapons of mass financial distruction. All of these things are only possible in a credit driven borrow and spend boom and bust economic model driven by our use of fiat currency. But Warren is bullish on America and sending the message "don't worry be happen, keep consuming". Yeah, his illuminati pals will be just fine but how many average folk will see warren up there smiling and figure they can coast a while longer because buffet's a smart guy and he's not worried yet.

      I spit in the direction of Warren Buffet for the damage he did in the IOUSA debate to those Americans that don't understand how money works. He knows better than to say the stuff he said.
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    • Sat Aug 23rd 14:06 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Fannie / Freddie Insider Selling Sign: EBay
      If by not going BK you means the bonds will not default then I agree. The US taxpayer will be made to eat the bad assets which are backed by bonds. If we don't do this then our creditors will deem us not credit worthy and stop lending us money on the debt we never intend to pay back. But we all want to continue to act like we will this time.

      If by BK you mean the common share holders will be completely wiped out (which is the only BK that investors (gamblers) care about) then you are wrong. Holders of the common will be wiped out. As if losing 95% isn't already that.
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    • Fri Aug 22nd 02:35 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time to Avoid the Stock Markets Altogether
      Avoid my A$$!!! Long SKF, FXP, SRS, short AIG. Soon to be short home builders again.

      If I had to be long anything it would be solar and gold stocks.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 22nd 01:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      U.S. Dollar's Rise Has a Dark Side - Merrill
      Agree that US repatrioted profits will be reduced. While this boosted IBM and GOOG before, it will slam them in the coming quarters.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 22nd 01:12 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Core Inflation Is Low and Stable
      Stagflation:

      - Anything that is generally bought on credit will get cheaper because it will increasingly have to be bought with cash.

      - Anything generally bought with cash will increasing become more expensive because while Ben B is not inflating the money supply directly he is taking on OBLIGATIONS that will likely require a huge increase in the money supply going forward. When FNM and FRE are nationalized and 30% of their toxic waste defaults, the USD will be diluted in order to pay for it.

      Count on it.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 22nd 00:19 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The SEC's New IDEA: 'Financial Disclosure Meets the Matrix'
      Just another control mechanism to get the sheeple to gamble their money away in the ponzi scheme which has become the US stock market. If you want to gamble, it's a great place. If you want to save for retirement, get out of the USD until such time as the US debt is taken under control. All of these plans for forced 401ks that are being bandied about are simply trying to force the people to buy into the dollar, and thus into the US debt.

      They did the same sorts of things to revigorate confidence in 1933 and they did fool a new crop of sheeple into the markets, but this game is long in the tooth. Dividend investing is true investing (aka value investing). Speculation on share price appreciation is nothing more than gambling and the sooner the US population figures it out and moves their money out of that kind of system, the better off we will be as a nation.
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    • Mon Aug 11th 11:11 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Long Term, Gold Is On Its Way Down
      What is more likely to "go down" over the next 10 years:
      a) gold which has been money in hundreds of countries for 1000s of years.

      b) the USD whic is teetering on being thrown out of its world reserve currency status due to already huge and constantly growing debt with no way out of the death spiral in sight.

      What do you think will happen to gold when the USA loses AAA status of its debt? We are now in no mans land, never before traversed, with respect to the USD. Given that land prices have bubbled to the sky in the USA and other western nations, it's getting harder and harder to find a good place to invest wealth there.

      I guess many people will just hold their wealth in the USD as it evaporates before their very eyes. Good luck with that plan.
      View article »
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