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- IntegraMed America, Inc. Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
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- Pacific Sunwear F3Q08 (Qtr End 11/1/08) Earnings Call Transcript
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- Provectus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. The Wall Street Analyst Forum Call Transcript
- Point Blank Solutions, Inc. Q3 2008 (Quarter End 9/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript
- Navios Maritime Holdings Inc., Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
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Did U Think The Ponzi Scheme Would Last?
158 Comments
How Dumb Does the NAR Think Homebuyers Are?
The ponzi scheme is over.
An Open Letter to the Plunge Protection Team
You attacked my style which is fine. But you could not attack the substance of my post. I suspect that you didn't understand any of what Ron Paul is trying to teach you.
Don't get caught up in your little web of political correctness for too long. The sugar coating is melting off that turdcicle you are sucking on.
U.S. Dollar Shaking Off Risk Aversion
RMB is strengthening relative to the dollar, but not relative to real money which is gold. Chinese inflation is on the rise.
Most currencies in the world have some formal relationship to the USD. As it dies so will they be hurt. No fiat currency is safe over the next decade IMO.
Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida: The News We've Been Waiting For
Book? In fl? HA HA! Who knows what they are using to judge book value?? The plummeting value of their REO?
Forget book right now, it is like PE and PS. They are all metrics that mean something in stable times. They are meaningless control mechanisms in bad times.
Is the Structural Bear Market Nearing Its End?
Greenspan said that this will be the "most wrenching" time since the end of WW2. I don't know about you, but I don't really feel all that "wrenched" yet. Yeah, gas and groceries cost a bit more but it's not changing my life very much.
It will get much much worse than this. Expect economic bomb after economic bomb to continue to drop until we have a huge panic wahshout sell off which takes us down to Dow 7500.
SEC's Compliance Alert: We Told You So
Ever.
Remind him that ex-marines have a demonstrated track record for being better traders and let him know that the reason is that a marine sees things for what they are and then acts accordingly or he dies. An intellectualy will quote verses from texts explaining why all the flames around him are not real and will thus self extinguish shortly.
Then have him go read Ron Paul, Peter Schiff, and Robert Prechter to figure out how things really work over the long run.
All you have to do to win right now is put 1/2 your wealth into physical gold and then build a long term speculative position against the market in the form of deep out of the money puts (leaps). Buy them deep and cheap because when the market collapses the way nobody really believes is possible, people who did this will be multimillionaires.
Barron's Interview: Six Winners No Matter Where We Go From Here
Anyone that knows what a mania chart looks like will recognize that the Dow is a complete mania which tried to pop during dot bomb but which was reflated by Greenspan's low interest rates. Further enabled by Greenspan's virtual elimination of any reserve requirements placed on the creation of credit by banks, the price of the country's largest asset class (by far) - housing - soared to nosebleed heights. Money was taken out at the top and used to speculate in the markets. Now all of that is collapsing far worse than anyone was predicting just 6 months ago and it will get a lot worse than anyone has predicted so far. The gov't will try to stop this by creating money from thin air and doing helicopter drops into the economy in order to offset the destruction of credit.
Anyone watching this happens knows what it is, and will continue to do to the USD. Putting money into stocks at this point is stupid. The economy is melting down and so earnings will crash. Even if you are lucky enough to be in a stock that goes up in a bear market, you have to pay taxes on the gains. But the gains are likley to be related to inflation so all you are doing is taking a risk in the markets in order to pay taxes on inflation.
At the same time, boomers are looking at all this and wondering if their retirement savings really belong in such a place. Their 401ks are down at least 15-25% over the last 9 months and so it is worrisome to say the least. I suspect that there will be selling and redemptions into any strength and the pyramid scheme known as the stock markets will crash badly in the next 5 years.
This is no time to bet the farm on the markets. You will make more money shorting and smart people are buying long term puts, deep out of the money.
Are Stocks a Good Hedge Against Inflation?
In short, they are playing the vendor financing game. You have over capacity and nobody with enough productivity to trade with. So you take their worthless IOU and claim you are making "sales".
At some point the entity receiving the stuff either simply will not take anymore OR they default on their promises to pay for the stuff and the one manufacturing and sending the stuff over stops.
When Chinese manufacture stuff and send it to the USA, they really want something else of value in return. Since we have chased much of our production offshore, we have little to trade back with. So instead we send our dollars as IOUs. The Chinese do not want our dollars, they want stuff that the dollars represents and they hope to be able to trade those dollars back to us later for goods and services. But it has been many years of us sending IOUs and now the lack of domestic US production, which has been masked by fake production of financial services, is causing Americans to be unable to buy as much imported crap as before. Soon this will become a trend and once that is in place, the vendor finance game will end. China will want us to take our dollars back in return for production but they will find we have left them holding an empty bag.
China and Japan and others will not buy our debt forever. They will throw our worthless dollars into the marketplace to buy anything that anyone is dumb enough to give them for the paper. This is why commodities are so sky high. The wealth is looking for places to hide from the collapsing US dollar.
At some point people will realize that inflation is moving up faster than any gains in stocks and bonds which are valuated in USD. The stock markets will crash as everyone attempts to extract their wealth while there is anything left to be able to extract.
None of this is rocket science. Ron Paul, Peter Schiff and other smart people have been warning you about this for years, but you all believe that the system is some sort of bottomless pit of wealth and value which can never dry up. While nobody knows how long it will actually take to collapse, collapse it must, and it will come as a major shock to most people in the world. Remember that the USSR, once thought of as a super power, default on all of its public debt only a few short years ago. All fiat currency based systems suffer the same fate eventually. The process of breakdown tends to be exponential which means it moves ever faster into the crash. This is why so many people are taken by surprise. Nobody can give you a final year or month, but the certainty is there nonetheless.
Now, go ahead back to your pointless dem vs gop arguments, sheeple, even though we no longer have a true 2 party system. It's now the uniparty and their goal is to extract your wealth from you while appearing to represent and support you. The Central Leviathan Party is alive and well. Go ask them for your daily bread or your right to live because that is just where this is taking a sleeping America.
Where Are Precious Metals Heading?
Ten Bear Market Phases, Current Edition
Bravo. Thanks again for the ongoing insight and commentary.
We Don't Need No Stinking Market Capitulation
9500 - 20% takes us to the mid Dow 7k region which is where the last big multiyear support was found. Then it will be time to go long long long as we build the right shoulder. Oops. Did I let that slip that the Dow is forming a H+S? After the right shoulder is formed at Dow 10500 or so on the way back up, it will turn down again and that will be where that traitorous bastard Greenspan's "age of turbulence" takes on a whole new meaning. That's when the world will reject the USD wholesale causing our stock market to tank well below 1000.
I see you are laughing. If only you would read Robert Prechter's book and then study what Ron Paul has been preaching for 30 years and then read Peter Schiff's book you would not be laughing. You would be planning.
Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida: The News We've Been Waiting For
The losses you just saw are not a 1 time deal. They will continue until the bank goes BK. MANY small insignificant banks like this will BK over the next 3 years, not just your beloved SBCF. But those small banks in the Fl and CA markets will get hurt the first and the most.
You better go do some research on the great depression because I think you are in denial.
U.S. Dollar Shaking Off Risk Aversion
I really think that is overstepping in a significant way. I am a net short and I am in no way frightened. Quite the contrary. IMO the bull is badly wounded, perhaps mortally. It seems he ran into a brick wall at 100 mph.
Now the bears are starting to circle. This is a VERY strong bull and the smart bears are not just going for the kill. They are letting the self inflicted wounds bleed the strength from the bull. One mighty thrust from those powerful horns could cause a bear some major damage, so patience is the order of the day. But fear? No way. This is simply the careful art of stalking wounded prey. As the prey weakens from continuous bleeding, the bear attacks will be more severe and the bull defense will be of smaller magnitude and shorter duration. At some point the bear is going to have this bull by the neck. This is the natural order of things. Don't blame the bears. The bull did this to himself. A new bull will be born in the future, but we are looking at a decade or more of bearish feasting on the last bull carcass.
You want to see fear? Look into the eyes of Helicopter Ben. He knows where this is going. He knows the fear.
An Open Letter to the Plunge Protection Team
Gosh, where to start. Do you think that trading stocks speculatively "causes" growth?? Dude, stock speculation is a pyramid scheme based on greater fools theory with some pompus structure wrapped around (brokerages, metrics such as P/E, P/S, etc.) it to give it an air of civility and credibility. Unless you are value investing, in other words, unless you are investing in dividend bearing stocks, then you are SPECULATING and that is a win-lose greater fool scam, PERIOD. Win lose is unsustainable because sooner or later the winners will have all the money and the losers will be broke. A sheeple can only be sheared so closely.
Today's stock market, which is mainly a speculation (gambling) tool, does not create value, it just redistributes it from the dumb money to the "smart" money. When stocks rise exponentially (like the Dow has over the past 10 years) it is not the creation of additional value but rather a measure of exponential inflation of the money supply which was done by fractional reserve banks creating credit from thin air which eventually found its way into every nook and cranny of our economy.
Anyone who doesn't understand that this must deflate now that credit is being withdrawn from the market at warp speed is going to get seriously disfigured by the markets over the next 2 years.
Let me put it a different way. The stock market has not created any value. The share prices are higher because the federal reserve has hollowed out the dollar and given part of it back to the economy and thus back into stocks. You have LESS value in the markets than 10 years ago and that is readily seen by looking at the chart of the Dow priced in gold instead of the dollar.
Despite appearances, nobody is making any value in the markets. They are simply getting taxed on the inflation of their dollars. They buy the shares for price A. Price A would be able to buy a certain amount of stuff (food, gas, clothing, gold). While invested, the dollar gets hollowed out by the fed (actually, the past actions of the fed at this point) and then back into the market which is used to buy more shares. Shares appreciate to price B and the sheeple think they have gotten ahead (received additional value). They sell the shares for price B. You pay taxes on A-B even though price B buys the same amount of stuff that price A did originally. YOU MADE NO VALUE. Instead, you just paid taxes on inflation.
How does it feel now that you know just how badly you have been getting scammed?
If you want to STORE wealth choose physical gold and silver.
If you want to INVEST then buy shares of equities which pay dividends greater than the rate of inflation. Same for bonds but you get the coupon instead of a dividend. Good luck finding a company which does this while at the same time not being a great risk to your principal.
If you want to SPECULATE and GAMBLE that you can find a greater fool to buy your shares in a bear market, buy most stocks.
If you want to figure out how much you really don't know about money and the economy, go read up on Ron Paul. He will open your eyes regaring the scam which is fiat money and the fractional reserve banking system.
How Dumb Does the NAR Think Homebuyers Are?
Home prices have a lot further to drop. In 3-4 years you will be able to buy a house in Fl again for 1990s prices.