DenisL's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/139592/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/128285-why-the-sdrs-are-doa?source=feed#comment-443849 443849 There is a great deal of potential mischief possible in these statements:
"There are two ways holders of SDRs can obtain the underlying currencies in exchange. First, members can arrange a bilateral voluntary agreement. Second, according to the IMF, it can designate members with strong external positions (current account surpluses) to purchase the SDRs from members with weak external positions. This second method of obtaining SDRs is more suggestive, and does not appear to have ever been used."

How about if the Federal Reserve starts buying these up with printed dollars....or another country does? This is a way for the Fed to give money to the UK to save it from bankruptcy, and hide/obscure that one is doing it.

Interesting times.]]> Sun, 29 Mar 2009 06:29:16 -0400 There is a great deal of potential mischief possible in these statements:
"There are two ways holders of SDRs can obtain the underlying currencies in exchange. First, members can arrange a bilateral voluntary agreement. Second, according to the IMF, it can designate members with strong external positions (current account surpluses) to purchase the SDRs from members with weak external positions. This second method of obtaining SDRs is more suggestive, and does not appear to have ever been used."

How about if the Federal Reserve starts buying these up with printed dollars....or another country does? This is a way for the Fed to give money to the UK to save it from bankruptcy, and hide/obscure that one is doing it.

Interesting times.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115249-are-you-kidding-cbo-s-laughable-tarp-claims?source=feed#comment-358905 358905
Their lips are moving ( or in this case their fingers are typing) THEREFORE they are lying.

What else is new?

Buy gold and forget about this nonsense.
Oh and I guess you could keep 3 months worth of food on hand, buy a shotgun to defend it (AND a LOT of shotgun shells) AND pray!]]> Sun, 18 Jan 2009 10:06:40 -0500
Their lips are moving ( or in this case their fingers are typing) THEREFORE they are lying.

What else is new?

Buy gold and forget about this nonsense.
Oh and I guess you could keep 3 months worth of food on hand, buy a shotgun to defend it (AND a LOT of shotgun shells) AND pray!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113502-gold-s-not-the-best-investment-in-inflationary-times?source=feed#comment-349089 349089 STAGdeFLATION!!
I guess this is because M2 and M3 are collapsing.

Question:
So what happens when these measures of money supply are going down AND M1 and the adjusted monetary base (ABM) are going up?

Answer:
Interesting times.

Way too interesting for me.
So I will buy some more gold until the "experts" sort this out.
Or better yet the market does.]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 17:44:25 -0500 STAGdeFLATION!!
I guess this is because M2 and M3 are collapsing.

Question:
So what happens when these measures of money supply are going down AND M1 and the adjusted monetary base (ABM) are going up?

Answer:
Interesting times.

Way too interesting for me.
So I will buy some more gold until the "experts" sort this out.
Or better yet the market does.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113502-gold-s-not-the-best-investment-in-inflationary-times?source=feed#comment-348934 348934 That is my thinking exactly.
We can not raise rates to Volcker's 20% levels to prevent inflation without risking default........
so we must get mass inflation.

The adjusted monetary base has doubled in the last few months. That is the money measurement that correlates best with inflation. Please remember that there is a 6-12 month lag between changes in the AMB or other money supply measurements and price increases. Inflation by DEFINITION is an increase in the money supply. Price inflation lags that money supply increase.

I do not see the alternative unless the Fed requires banks to increase their reserve holdings to higher than their current levels, which is possible but it would then throttle lending and business activity.

Alternatively, the Fed could issue Federal Bills, Notes and Bonds as suggested in a trial balloon recently. This would allow the Federal Reserve to pay high interest rates, soak up excess dollars, and compete with the Treasury's Bills, Notes and Bonds. This would be OK because the Fed would buy the government debt at low interest rates (keeping US government interest payments low) but the Fed would pay everyone else high rates. This would be blatantly inflationary long term but if they took advantage of the lag time it might work short term.

In any case, buy some gold. You are going to need it. This is NOT going to end well with a $50 trillion world GDP and $1.3 quadrillion worth of world debt obligations. The popping bubble is going to be a might loud. We ain't heard anything yet!]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 15:02:57 -0500 That is my thinking exactly.
We can not raise rates to Volcker's 20% levels to prevent inflation without risking default........
so we must get mass inflation.

The adjusted monetary base has doubled in the last few months. That is the money measurement that correlates best with inflation. Please remember that there is a 6-12 month lag between changes in the AMB or other money supply measurements and price increases. Inflation by DEFINITION is an increase in the money supply. Price inflation lags that money supply increase.

I do not see the alternative unless the Fed requires banks to increase their reserve holdings to higher than their current levels, which is possible but it would then throttle lending and business activity.

Alternatively, the Fed could issue Federal Bills, Notes and Bonds as suggested in a trial balloon recently. This would allow the Federal Reserve to pay high interest rates, soak up excess dollars, and compete with the Treasury's Bills, Notes and Bonds. This would be OK because the Fed would buy the government debt at low interest rates (keeping US government interest payments low) but the Fed would pay everyone else high rates. This would be blatantly inflationary long term but if they took advantage of the lag time it might work short term.

In any case, buy some gold. You are going to need it. This is NOT going to end well with a $50 trillion world GDP and $1.3 quadrillion worth of world debt obligations. The popping bubble is going to be a might loud. We ain't heard anything yet!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112603-investing-in-basic-needs-hedging-your-expenses?source=feed#comment-341358 341358 Just hold cash a while longer.
This thing is going down a lot more, then the stocks above will be even better buys.]]> Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:48:35 -0500 Just hold cash a while longer.
This thing is going down a lot more, then the stocks above will be even better buys.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112402-gold-poised-to-move-higher?source=feed#comment-340342 340342 > Sooner or later people are going to realize that value of gold is
> psychological only, and our past obsession with this metal will be
> regarded as a historical curiosity.

Yep.
And believing in paper money is also psychological. Our fellow humans CAN print as much as they want AND DO.

Physical gold can not be inflated.
EVERY country in the world is inflating its paper money right now.
Does that make you feel safe?
They are in a race to the bottom to see who can inflate the most and help their trade balance the most.

Does THIS help your psychology?

Look the choice of what to believe in for money is arbitrary. No system is perfect.

I trust the free market. I do not trust my fellow men, when they are politicians needing to print more money for war and for government programs to "help" our fellow man and to "help" get them re-elected!

Monetary policy, particularly inflation, has likely destroyed more countries and killed more people than war has, especially when you consider that monetary policies have led to many wars.

Let the market choose.]]> Mon, 29 Dec 2008 09:11:39 -0500 > Sooner or later people are going to realize that value of gold is
> psychological only, and our past obsession with this metal will be
> regarded as a historical curiosity.

Yep.
And believing in paper money is also psychological. Our fellow humans CAN print as much as they want AND DO.

Physical gold can not be inflated.
EVERY country in the world is inflating its paper money right now.
Does that make you feel safe?
They are in a race to the bottom to see who can inflate the most and help their trade balance the most.

Does THIS help your psychology?

Look the choice of what to believe in for money is arbitrary. No system is perfect.

I trust the free market. I do not trust my fellow men, when they are politicians needing to print more money for war and for government programs to "help" our fellow man and to "help" get them re-elected!

Monetary policy, particularly inflation, has likely destroyed more countries and killed more people than war has, especially when you consider that monetary policies have led to many wars.

Let the market choose.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100618-not-your-grandfather-s-great-depression?source=feed#comment-285960 285960 If we keep the government out and let things go bankrupt, we will hurt short term but be OK. If we allow government to help we are in for an inflationary holocaust lasting a decade likely longer.
Their cure is worse than the disease.
Bush is NOW HOOVER, and Obama or McCain (it matters not because both voted for the $700 billion+ bailout) will be FDR.
We are screwed but we did not have to be.

Buy gold and pray. Lots and lots of gold AND lots and lots of prayers.]]> Sun, 19 Oct 2008 22:13:30 -0400 If we keep the government out and let things go bankrupt, we will hurt short term but be OK. If we allow government to help we are in for an inflationary holocaust lasting a decade likely longer.
Their cure is worse than the disease.
Bush is NOW HOOVER, and Obama or McCain (it matters not because both voted for the $700 billion+ bailout) will be FDR.
We are screwed but we did not have to be.

Buy gold and pray. Lots and lots of gold AND lots and lots of prayers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98562-batten-down-the-hatches-economic-forecast?source=feed#comment-274088 274088 If we destroy the dollar, we will wish it will end but it will take generations.
Let the big banks go broke like in 1907. Let the free market work.
Two years of agony and then we are through it. Or two decades of misery to reach the same point AND no lessons will have been learned.
It is OK to go broke in a capitalist society, even if you are a rich member of the power establishment.]]> Sun, 05 Oct 2008 14:12:42 -0400 If we destroy the dollar, we will wish it will end but it will take generations.
Let the big banks go broke like in 1907. Let the free market work.
Two years of agony and then we are through it. Or two decades of misery to reach the same point AND no lessons will have been learned.
It is OK to go broke in a capitalist society, even if you are a rich member of the power establishment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96092-avoid-broken-buck-syndrome-with-treasuries-money-market-funds?source=feed#comment-257825 257825 Boy are you dreaming!?!? I wish you were right but.....
The only one who understood what is happening was Ron Paul.

Austrian economics predicted this economic crisis well in advance.
I am not sure if McCain or Obama ever took an economics class.
And I will wager you that Bernanke and Paulsen, AND any other people McCain/Obama may hire to help them, took the WRONG economic classes.
We havea minimum of two more years of economic bad news with the current wrong-headed policies in place. If they keep doing the same as they have been, it will be two more decades!
Buy gold and pray. ]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 08:45:56 -0400 Boy are you dreaming!?!? I wish you were right but.....
The only one who understood what is happening was Ron Paul.

Austrian economics predicted this economic crisis well in advance.
I am not sure if McCain or Obama ever took an economics class.
And I will wager you that Bernanke and Paulsen, AND any other people McCain/Obama may hire to help them, took the WRONG economic classes.
We havea minimum of two more years of economic bad news with the current wrong-headed policies in place. If they keep doing the same as they have been, it will be two more decades!
Buy gold and pray. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91329-the-bedrock-case-for-the-return-of-the-gold-bull?source=feed#comment-232782 232782 It is for times of war, hyperinflation, banks failing and governments going crazy with spending. It is NOT an inflation hedge unless it is hyperinflation.

I still think we are in for some VERY rough economic water (at least another $1 trillion dollar loss in the housing markets) AND the powers that be will need a WAR to distract the masses from the economic problems/fallout. Before then we WILL see some price deflation. Hang on to your gold if you can not time this. Sell your gold if YOU can predict WHEN the next disaster will hit. In ANY case with the current folks in charge it is silly NOT to have at least 10% of your assets in gold at ALL times, more if you think, as I do, that disaster is looming. Deflation in housing prices WILL not help the heavily leveraged financial markets AND no one is predicting a rise in housing prices until late 2009 or early 2010, the housing bubble is still popping even if there is inflation in other areas. I think that one could sell gold now IF you believe we will NOT be in a WAR in the next year. AND then buy it back again once the gold bubble has popped. I do not have that kind of nerve. I will hold on to gold AND sleep better at night.]]> Sun, 17 Aug 2008 23:50:18 -0400 It is for times of war, hyperinflation, banks failing and governments going crazy with spending. It is NOT an inflation hedge unless it is hyperinflation.

I still think we are in for some VERY rough economic water (at least another $1 trillion dollar loss in the housing markets) AND the powers that be will need a WAR to distract the masses from the economic problems/fallout. Before then we WILL see some price deflation. Hang on to your gold if you can not time this. Sell your gold if YOU can predict WHEN the next disaster will hit. In ANY case with the current folks in charge it is silly NOT to have at least 10% of your assets in gold at ALL times, more if you think, as I do, that disaster is looming. Deflation in housing prices WILL not help the heavily leveraged financial markets AND no one is predicting a rise in housing prices until late 2009 or early 2010, the housing bubble is still popping even if there is inflation in other areas. I think that one could sell gold now IF you believe we will NOT be in a WAR in the next year. AND then buy it back again once the gold bubble has popped. I do not have that kind of nerve. I will hold on to gold AND sleep better at night.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89416-gold-price-plunges-might-as-well-hold-stocks?source=feed#comment-224922 224922 So own some gold now....and buy a LOT more if it goes lower. It will go back up, the question is when. Just keep an eye on the warmongers, Bush/Cheney/McCain and the spend us into oblivion guy, Obama. The M1/monetary base and declining housing prices will dictate the timing...or a war or something other crisis. Everthing is kind of brittle and jittery and skittish right now. Just my opinion. Take it for what it is worth.]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 09:41:44 -0400 So own some gold now....and buy a LOT more if it goes lower. It will go back up, the question is when. Just keep an eye on the warmongers, Bush/Cheney/McCain and the spend us into oblivion guy, Obama. The M1/monetary base and declining housing prices will dictate the timing...or a war or something other crisis. Everthing is kind of brittle and jittery and skittish right now. Just my opinion. Take it for what it is worth.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86413-fannie-and-freddie-rescued-at-last?source=feed#comment-212106 212106 Wed, 23 Jul 2008 05:42:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69979-the-fed-is-deflating-10-reasons-why?source=feed#comment-165686 165686 Thanks.
Just curious. Most of our arguments about money and the economy are based on the idea that M1 is conceptually like gold, and that the value of M1 is not subject to manipulation or fudging like CPI statistics.
Lately I have read that gold itself is subject to manipulation because there may not be the gold in the National vaults around the world that we are told. Everything including the old economists back in the 1800s is based on a mathematical model that is true only if it predicts the real world. My problem is: "The real world adapts to and thus changes all economic models. Is M1 really like gold? And is gold nowadays like gold was in the old days. This idea that the economic world changes when we think about it (I am thinking about what he is thinking about what everyone else is thinking everyone else is thinking, if you know what I mean) gives me a headache when trying to decide what to do economically to protect my family."]]> Sun, 11 May 2008 07:00:29 -0400 Thanks.
Just curious. Most of our arguments about money and the economy are based on the idea that M1 is conceptually like gold, and that the value of M1 is not subject to manipulation or fudging like CPI statistics.
Lately I have read that gold itself is subject to manipulation because there may not be the gold in the National vaults around the world that we are told. Everything including the old economists back in the 1800s is based on a mathematical model that is true only if it predicts the real world. My problem is: "The real world adapts to and thus changes all economic models. Is M1 really like gold? And is gold nowadays like gold was in the old days. This idea that the economic world changes when we think about it (I am thinking about what he is thinking about what everyone else is thinking everyone else is thinking, if you know what I mean) gives me a headache when trying to decide what to do economically to protect my family."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70389-get-out-of-commodities-barron-s?source=feed#comment-133769 133769 "This is absolute insanity.......Half of the the "experts" are screaming to get out of commodities as quickly as you can while the other half is screaming to get into commodities as quickly as you can."

And you know what is really scary. Both halves are LIKELY correct. I too am bewildered.

Just hang on to your job and to your gold. You may not get rich but you will eat and you will NOT go broke. You could get rich. Maybe not. But at least you will not be broke.

Maybe have BOTH gold and have cash FDIC insured. I have a friend who just bought a 4 year CD at 5% interest. He may be nuts but who knows, maybe I am to think that he is.

This is just a wild time right now. Who knows what the Plunge Protection Team is going to do? You tell me how to plan for NEW regulations, an unknown President in January, both inflation & deflation at the SAME time, and a creative Fed Reserve Chair who likes to print lots of money but does not seem to affect inflation or the M1 money supply. Something is whacky. Are the formulas fudged? It is all very wild and crazy AND unpredictable.

A war in Iran would provide a lot of excuses for a lot of people right now AND make many folks even richer. Hang on it is going to get exciting. You ain't seen nuthin yet.
]]> Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:00:39 -0400 "This is absolute insanity.......Half of the the "experts" are screaming to get out of commodities as quickly as you can while the other half is screaming to get into commodities as quickly as you can."

And you know what is really scary. Both halves are LIKELY correct. I too am bewildered.

Just hang on to your job and to your gold. You may not get rich but you will eat and you will NOT go broke. You could get rich. Maybe not. But at least you will not be broke.

Maybe have BOTH gold and have cash FDIC insured. I have a friend who just bought a 4 year CD at 5% interest. He may be nuts but who knows, maybe I am to think that he is.

This is just a wild time right now. Who knows what the Plunge Protection Team is going to do? You tell me how to plan for NEW regulations, an unknown President in January, both inflation & deflation at the SAME time, and a creative Fed Reserve Chair who likes to print lots of money but does not seem to affect inflation or the M1 money supply. Something is whacky. Are the formulas fudged? It is all very wild and crazy AND unpredictable.

A war in Iran would provide a lot of excuses for a lot of people right now AND make many folks even richer. Hang on it is going to get exciting. You ain't seen nuthin yet.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/68672-cpi-2008-vs-1980?source=feed#comment-127521 127521 Currently with REAL US inflation at nearly 10% it is foolish to TODAY have money in T-bills, US stock funds (some foreign funds, as well as currencies, are still doing relatively GREAT), bonds or CDs. Buy gold. The price of gold has more than tripled since 2000, Up 30% in 2007 and up more than 15% just this year alone. The nuts in DC have still not understood that we can not inflate our way out of the economic problems that are being caused BY the inflation of currencies world wide.

When Bernanke and the gang get serious about inflation like Reagan and Volcker did in the early eighties and RAISE interest rates 3 successive times, THEN it will be time to sell your gold. I would NOT hold my breath. They just do not get it. If you buy gold you will have some capital left to help rebuild America and the world when the dust settles on the remaining economic rubble.
]]> Mon, 17 Mar 2008 08:12:26 -0400 Currently with REAL US inflation at nearly 10% it is foolish to TODAY have money in T-bills, US stock funds (some foreign funds, as well as currencies, are still doing relatively GREAT), bonds or CDs. Buy gold. The price of gold has more than tripled since 2000, Up 30% in 2007 and up more than 15% just this year alone. The nuts in DC have still not understood that we can not inflate our way out of the economic problems that are being caused BY the inflation of currencies world wide.

When Bernanke and the gang get serious about inflation like Reagan and Volcker did in the early eighties and RAISE interest rates 3 successive times, THEN it will be time to sell your gold. I would NOT hold my breath. They just do not get it. If you buy gold you will have some capital left to help rebuild America and the world when the dust settles on the remaining economic rubble.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/48390-is-the-fed-deflating?source=feed#comment-110134 110134 Mon, 14 Jan 2008 05:50:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/48390-is-the-fed-deflating?source=feed#comment-110133 110133 I must say that I am confused. A practical point.
Do you own gold? Are you buying more, selling, or holding or...? It seems to me that the definition of money supply becomes rather arbitrary when it is all fiat/imaginary money to begin with? And if one can create more "money", or the stuff that buys goods, through credit we are looking at one heck of an increase in money supply, which is independent of the central banks. That is, if US M3 is $13 trillion and total credit is $500 trillion in active debt world wide RIGHT now, then we have one heck of lot of money out in the world that can buy up a LOT of goods. I am not sure if the US or any central bank has the power to do much in the face of that much money/credit supply! I am clearly out of my depth here but this all seems pretty scary to me if we can not even determine REAL money supply. Heck we can not even define REAL money in a "print your own money" world with no grounding in anything (like gold) except the road runner's faith that as look as he does not look down when he runs off the cliff that he can keep going!!]]> Mon, 14 Jan 2008 05:48:13 -0500 I must say that I am confused. A practical point.
Do you own gold? Are you buying more, selling, or holding or...? It seems to me that the definition of money supply becomes rather arbitrary when it is all fiat/imaginary money to begin with? And if one can create more "money", or the stuff that buys goods, through credit we are looking at one heck of an increase in money supply, which is independent of the central banks. That is, if US M3 is $13 trillion and total credit is $500 trillion in active debt world wide RIGHT now, then we have one heck of lot of money out in the world that can buy up a LOT of goods. I am not sure if the US or any central bank has the power to do much in the face of that much money/credit supply! I am clearly out of my depth here but this all seems pretty scary to me if we can not even determine REAL money supply. Heck we can not even define REAL money in a "print your own money" world with no grounding in anything (like gold) except the road runner's faith that as look as he does not look down when he runs off the cliff that he can keep going!!]]>