Al from CT

U.S. Q1 GDP Improved: Don't Get Too Excited

Good article. Nice to see the components separated out graphically.

I read that there is a severe shortage of shipping containers in the US. Historically, they would accumulate in the US due to the import/export imbalance, but US exports are now stalling because they can't get enough to accommodate. I think this was in the WSJ a few weeks ago, especially hard hit was agriculture. Wonder how long it takes to correct the imbalance?

Our international shipments are up ~40% this year, but we haven't seen the shipping container issues directly, maybe indirectly because all the shipping rates all include "surcharges" of anywhere from 10-40%.

US GDP Grew in Q1: Where is That Recession?

Financials have crashed and burned, too much virtual value disappearing. Housing industry is crashing as well, back down to the level were the average person can even afford a house, whenever the banks get around to writing mortgages again. In spite of this, the economy is stable.

If these two sectors are sucking the wind out of the economy, then something else is going gangbusters to compensate. Subtact them out of the S&P 500 earnings for Q1 and earnings growth is still almost double digit positive.

By historical standards 5.1% unemployment is exceptionally low.

You can think gloom and doom, I'm thinking that the economy is showing to be incredibly resilient.

Taxes - A Good Reason to Sell in May (and Go Away)

Wow, using examples from 1932 and 1820 to interpret the current market conditions . . . and expecting anyone to take this seriously.

What Is Intel Really Worth?

The cost of each high end semiconductor fab is somewhere north of $4 billion. The current microprocessor is one of the most complex systems ever designed. The only other real player is AMD, and they don't have enough of those $4B fabs to supply the market, nor deep enough pockets to build more. It is hard to imagine any product line with higher barriers to entry. Intel is a different sort of company.

My 10 Predictions for 2008

More doom and gloom . . . these guys are just so incredibly wrong.
The ramp in the export market has already offset the sub-prime mess. All of the financial world and anyone else who can claim a linkage will write off 300% of the real impact in Q4, so they can look like heroes in 2008 when they sneak the 200% back into their results.

I predict he goes 0 for 10.