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    • Mon Jan 14th 17:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Google's Working with Microsoft's Playbook on iPhone
      Another iPhone and Google fanboy spouting off about Google taking over the world or 'getting it' (no matter what 'it' may be). Are there no more editors left in journalism? It used to be that articles like these would get some sort of editorial scrutiny before being published, but the blogs and web have made the cost of writing nonsensical pieces near zero, and more pages might mean more page-views, and hence more ads, so I guess we are just going to get more and more articles like these that appear to be written whilst tending to 'business' in the restroom.

      Come on, Seeking Alpha, hire an editor and write something interesting, insightful and not momentum-based.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 14th 17:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Cowen's Top 10 Technology Surprises for 2008
      Comparing Google Apps to Office 2007 is like comparing a Lexus to a Pinto. Both will get the job done but one is a pleasure to use while the other is a utility that you hope to graduate from someday. Google has been cobbling together these apps (note the last few apps have all been acquired) as a priority 3 behind its search and ads focus, and it will continue that way, much like any other company that has the challenge of focusing its resources on what will return the highest revenue, user adoption, or protect its user base. Google has a lot to fear in the social networking movement where it put a forth a weak attempt at leveling the playing field last year, and where it will continue to struggle with credibility (Google is well known as a bully in the business community, a highly juxtaposed perception when compared to the average netizen/consumer, but it's only a matter of time before this bully perception seeps more broadly into the average users' minds). With that threat at its doorstep it will have to continue to double down on search and ads and that will stretch it super thin in Apps -- would you want to bet your company's IT functionality on a company that puts Apps as priority #3, and has a major threat on its doorstep for its cash cow and what fuels its insane stock valuation? I wouldn't. Most CIOs wouldn't. So, I think Cowan is writing about this because Google is the current journalistic darling and the writer's equivalent of sensationalism -- put Google in your story and your bound to get eyeballs. It doesn't make it the right prognostication.

      So, I bet Google will continue to cobble together disparate pieces in an attempt to scare off Microsoft, whereas all it really does is put a little pricing pressure on Microsoft at the bargaining table with its large customers. No CIO in their right mind seriously considers doing business with Google, after watching what Google has done to others of its 'partners' (just search for the various apps partners who have been screwed over by Google in the past year).

      Look, it's tempting to pretend that Google will conquer the world, and that they will do this at a time when everyone is hoping the stock will double, especially employees and big institutions who got in over the past 18 months. But don't let the press and analysts fool you -- Google is a one trick pony and is only using Apps to saber rattle against its most feared competitor, using a weapon that its largest competitor built (AJAX). The innovation is all in search and ads, as are the resources to keep those services running.

      It's more interesting to ask what will happen as growth in online ads slows and whether Apps will ever make up for the Billions in market cap that will be erased when that bubble bursts. Google Apps would have to rake in $Billions in the next 2-3 years, to make up for the downside risk of a slowdown in online ads, not unlikely in a recessionary environment. And, before you depend on the DoubleClick acquisition to make up the difference, note that the competition in that market segment is fairly intense for serving up non-text ads, and there is no consumer 'lock' or brand tailwind that Google can rely on there. Look at DoubleClick's revenues over the past few years -- it is peanuts compared to Wall Street's expectations for Google's growth.

      So be careful not to fall for what analysts and pump-and-dump cycles say. Do your own research. It's too bad that there are not more balanced analyses out there and fewer momentum pieces.

      Good for you, Larry, for being critical of these types of reports.
      View article »
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