Gaucho420

Tiger Woods 10 for Wii: An Electronic Arts Epiphany

Ins't Nintendo the biggest game publisher in the world and by a long shot?

I love Tiger Woods Wii, it is brilliant...but let's not forget who came out with the Wii and with Wii Motion Plus...as good as Tiger is, Wii Sports Resorts BLOWS IT AWAY...and I love Tiger on the Wii.

Just sayin'...EA simply finally figured out how to use the Wii correctly, with this and with the Wii Fit competitor they have...but all they're doing is riding a much bigger company's coatails, so let's not spluge in our pants just yet for EA...good progress following someone else's lead, but how about some profitability?

Activision's Modern Warfare 2 and Console Game Pricing

I think only the most hardcore of gamers is willing to shell out $150 for nightvision goggles, but some will do it for sure. The rest of us will get the regularly priced $59.99.

By the way, has Activision thought about what may happen if someone, say under 18, uses those nightvision goggles at school? Perhaps to commit a crime? Spy in a dark gym? Scope out someone at night? I'm just sayin....there's some bad publicity waiting to happen there given the audience who may buy this. This is one of the few add-on premium packages that actually has an add-on that works in the real world, so I wouldn't be surprised if some kid, somewhere, decides to scope out his neighbors at night with that night vision and cap 'em with a bee-bee gun or something similar or quite frankly, worse. Not ATVI's fault if it does happen, but you know how the media spins this stuff.

I know this wasn't the point of the column, but I would say Wii Sports is the defining game of this generation, as it kicked off motion gaming, which is where clearly the future of the industry is.

Call of Duty is a great shooter, loved COD4, but it is JUST another shooter. If that's the defining game of this era, its sad...I would hope we'd make bigger leaps & bounds as an industry than just changing the scenario of shooters and that's why I beleive in the long run Wii Sports will stand out much more than any COD.

It'll be interesting to see how the sale do, but given what I'm seeing so far, especially the discounting of games almost one week after they are released and sometimes, upon release, I foresee Modern Warfare doing gangbusters out the door, but without a price drop on the 360 or PS3, I foresee it tale-sales dragging behind.

And god-forbid the game isn't a 9 or 10, it could happen...then sales will taper off even more. The retail environment is much too tough currently and will only get worse, that I do not see this game in the long run living up to its giant sales hype.

A price cut in console prices and then it maybe different.

Will OnLive Kill the Console Gaming Business?

"Since October, the industry in the United States, October through February, is up about 11 percent dollar growth. Over that same time period, Nintendo is up over 50 percent. Let me put it a different way: the total industry has grown just over $1 billion during that time frame. Nintendo has grown over $3 billion, so do the math. We're accounting for more than 100 percent of the industry growth, so certainly our share is growing. Other people are losing share. Those are the facts."

Reggie-Fils-Aimee at Nintendo. Again...why invest in a shrinking pie that now will have THREE competitors fighting for it...Onlive will have zero effect on the Wii market as Nintendo will never release its games for it and a Wii mote is no-where in site. Hence, game over as an investment...the bigger pie is elswhere.

Will OnLive Kill the Console Gaming Business?

Who cares...you're all missing the boat, the paradigm shift has happened and continues to happen away from hard-core gaming.

As an investor, why would anyone invest in a technology aimed at the old way of doing business? Its great & all, but besides the very obvious technical difficulties of assuming someone's computer at home will be capable (well DUH!, that's obvious), the bottom line is growth in the videogame world is fueled solely by Nintendo, the Wii and the DS. Had Nintendo not come out with the Wii, this column wouldn't exist as the industry would be shrinking or be flat in size.

So again, who cares? I'm more interested as to WHOM exactly will step up first to challenge the Wii, as that's where the Dollars are.

I have a PC, a 360, A Wii and I game all the time and have for decades...however, I'm not going to let my gaming tastes affect what I invest in and to me, the hardcore market is flat outside of accessory spending and the fact the hard-core have grown up and can afford more items...but the amount of hard core gamers out there is less than before.

The sales of the 360/PS3 don't even come close to the PS2, even combined...but the Wii outsells the 360/PS3 combined, every single month and the top sellers are mostly DS/Wii games.

Invest in the Otakus if you'd like...I'll choose the mass market and the publishers who address that need.

Will OnLive Kill the Console Gaming Business?

Where's Nintendo? Of course, not anywhere near Onlive...and that's its major problem. This will cause the already shrinking hardcore market to be even more competitive, while Nintendo will just sit back and laugh...as no one has a Wiimote (yet) and the Wii is mostly succesfull due to its OWN NINTENDO GAMES. And its not like Guitar Hero/Rock Band is going to be on Onlive.

Once again, the genius of Nintendo, at least in this generation...shines on. Their product, which is completly exclusive to them, the Wii, will look even more exclusive now that you can get GTAIV on a download service. Its not like a motion controlled wand, coupled with the QUALITY of Nintendo is coming out anytime soon for a PC.

And the family market will never sit in front of a 20 inch computer monitor to do family gaming...only the existing hard cores will. So to me, Onlive is cool...but no game changer as the game changing is the Wii, DS and family gaming.

Too bad, so sad for Sony and MSFT...for everyone else, consumers included, this should make the other products cheaper and more competitive.

Take Two's New Distribution Arm Could Be Just What Investors Called For

I agree with homersby, paying attention to detail is key. I understand the overall argument (higher gross margins) and its certainly a positive for TTWO but the details should be accurate as well.

As an FYI, Sony strongly hinted last year that the downloadable episosdes (Lost & Damned is the first, another is coming later this year) will also be available to download on the PS3 eventually, further adding to potential customers.

M&A Lessons from 2008: Take the Money and Run

I think this column is invalid, as is the analysis, as well...were in a very severe recession, perhaps heading towards a depression.

Everyone has 20-20 hindisght and had any of these companies had the foresight to see the financial system collapse, they would've accepted their bids.

However, 1) all assummed the economy would not fall off a cliff and 2) all priced their takeover target price per a regular economy.

Its easy to say take the money and run in hindisght in a depressed economy, as no matter what your individual story as a company or sector, when the tide lowers, all boat sink.

So while its great to say you should've taken the money and ran, the bottom line is one sector (finance) has caused every other sector to collapse as it is the lifeblood of the economy.

In TTWO case (I'm a shareholder who cashed out near $27, but thought it should be worth much, much more and still do based on potential), how could they see a collapse of the economy coming? I wish for them they had...but again, hindsight's 20-20 and what happend to it and EA's stock is really more reflective of the fear of a depression that is palable and everywhere in equities.

A little more research next time...its easy to say you should've taken the money following an economic collapse as that is always the answer and will always be the answer in hindsight under this scenario that over-shadows all scenarios, but it is not at all reflective of any of these mergers individual stories at the time they said NO.

Weak analysis.

A New Era of Video Games: The End of Shovelware

I beleive you mean massmarket as oppossed to shovelware. Some would say movies are quality and TV is shovelware....but its just called TV, not shovelware. The Hard core crowd needs to get over itself and realize its playground is now everyone's playground.

I have a Wii & 360, and while I love my 360 games, MSFT poor customer service & horrible quality have me thinking that if the shovelware buyer is the fool...then all 360 owners are those fools, myself included. Almost everyone I know has had their 360 break down and some up to three times. The hard-cores are hard-core, that's for sure...some would say hard-core stubborn.

My Damn Super Nintendo from 1991 still works, but my 360 only made 2.5 years? Shovelware is perhaps a kind word to use...thank god the games are good, as the 360 is perhaps the least reliable machine in history.

And this year's top seller, my good man, is not GTAIV (I own TTWO), its MarioKart.

Wait until the end of the year and you'll see.

The future will be with the first machine that does Wii motion controls coupled standard hardcore gaming graphics with Gears of War style, but clearly the days of the joystick rulling the roost are numbered. I'm not sure why people don't get this, the average person has 0 interest in 16 buttons. Again, I love hardcore gaming, GTAIV is the best game this year and perhaps ever...but the future lies in non-traditional joysticks that will take GTAV and put it to good use.

As far as stocks, I am long TTWO (waiting for another ride up to cash in once again), THQI has they could be taken over and I would avoid ATVI and ERTS. I would also not be suprised in seeing Japanese companies buy out or merger with one these, maybe Capcom or Konami to give it more weight and depth worldwide.

UBISoft I would say now is the 2nd largest in the world and I too would recommend them. Paris Stock exchange.

Expect Plenty of M&A Activity in Gaming

I agree with you on this one Bruce. The question is when and how? Financing is not that readily easy to get and people like EA have been losing money hand over fist, reducing their cash position and available financing. But once the finance world returns to normal, this clearly is the case.

What about Capcom? They have stated specifically that they are looking to partner with a Western Interest...question is who? TTWO provides very strong western games that would have great synergies with a Japanese oriented producer and hence, reach a very wide array of potential global customers.

Konami also needs a shot in the arm, perhaps they are looking to broaden their scope as well.

With the Yen being so strong and with the stocks in the US publishers in very weak Dollars (at least compared to the Yen, which could go as low as 80 to 1 with the Dollar), Japanese companies may never have a better time or opportunity to snatch up some Western Rivals.

Take-Two Should Be a Bigger Acquisition Target

TTWO is where Activision was 5 years ago, except they have a killer franchise.

I made some good returns buying early on at $13, selling during the takeover battle and I would advise anyone to buy shares now for a long term hold.

Given the current recessionary environment, the lack of confidence in anything as well as the living fro news to news market action, in the short term all of these stocks could still go further down and by short term I mean six months to a year.

The Future of Gaming: Why EA and Take Two Have It Wrong

GTA's back catalogue alone sold a combined 1 million units the last quarter for TTWO...these are games that are nearly a decade old.

In addition, San Andreas is now available for download via Xbox Live. Good games always sell...ask Nintendo about its back catalogue of games. Super Mario Bros. still sells...and they're many SMB type catologue games that always will sell.

While I understand the bloggers point, I would say the blogger doesn't understand "CORE" gaming. Yes, this segment of the gaming world is probably stagnant to slow growing, it is still the highest money maker per title. I love gaming, including social gaming...but my money mostly goes towards the traditional games, whether on the 360 or the Wii.

I have a Wii and 360...and I've looked a super casual net gaming and quite frankly it holds no appeal to me what-so-ever. However, I can recognize it will hold some appeal to others who would never play GTAIV. But I would argue I spend much more than those people would, even if they outnumber me 100-1...over a year, I'll outspend them.

I cannot imagine ever being sastisfied simply playing a free game on the net...that's for the non hard core crowd, which is fine and perhaps can be profitable down the road, but that doesn't take away from traditional game makers profitability. They are two separate pies...a hard core gamer used to Xbox Live, the Wii or PS3 isn't suddenly going to dumb down his entertainment choices due to a new group rediscovering simple gaming and lets not forget gaming was already larger than movies before the Wii and mass gaming...so again, two different pies.

IE- the core crowd which is large and quite ample with their money is not going to suddenly give up Madden or GTA. At the same time, someone like ERTS or TTWO should also not sit on their laurels and just depend on old fashion game sales either.

To me, the succesfull company in the future will do both, in the same way Toyota sells the Yaris as well as a huge Lexus....different customers want the same product, but tailored to different tastes. Forward looking companies will do both, as you need the revenue stream from both to truly be succesfull.

But don't get ERTS long and well documented struggles fool you...that's them.

As long as you are innovative, you can keep coming out with the same games, but innovation is the key...EA does not innovate, NTDOY does...and sure enough, what a difference in performance.

Electronic Arts: What Is the Problem?

Take over target?

I can't say I can argue with that logic, given the stock collapse. But one has to wonder what one would be buying with EA? Spore? The Sims? The sporting games? I don't know...I would hope for better and newer IPs, outside of SPORE I guess.

Either EA's leaving the faucet running or the its developers are way over paid, as clearly, its costs are way out of line with its revenues. No wonder it wanted TTWO (who beat out earnings, what 5 quarters in a row now?).

It'll be interesting to see who, if anyone, makes a bid. Disney? Universal (GE?)? Time Warner? Merger with UBIsoft or someone else?

I must say the price of the shares are very attractive due to their slide, but their current weak performance is very unattractive...if EA can't make money in this environment, it speaks of severe internal cost issues and mismanagement.

Video Game Stocks: Beyond the Economic Slowdown

ERTS is a loser stock and will be for a while...a doubling of the loss from last year? In a growing industry?

As far as THQI, it is a buy at these levels, as is TTWO. But TTWO to me, could be the next ATVI as the quality of its games are tough to beat. Nothing can hold a candle to GTAIV and one can only hope they reinvest the money towards more franchise. The release of GTA Chinatown DS should further drive sales, even if the DS isn't exactly a hard core machine, it will see simply due to how many DS are out there.

I would rank all the Cos. in this order:

1. ATVI- Top of the game, but again, it cannot fall into the EA trap of doing sequels year after year, as you end up killing franchises with over-saturation. Guitar Hero will be the next big ATVI franchise to fall, the same way Tony Hawk fell.

2. UBISoft-up & coming, beats all forecasts and has a nice wide array of games. Its partially owned by ERTS. I could see this company merging at some point.

3. TTWO- Truly, the talent here is vast. Can they resign the Houser Twins? That is the biggest question at TTWO and expanding its lineup. I rank them 3rd based on potential.

3. ERTS- Puts out a lot of games, but the quality isn't quit there yet, although progress is being made. If Rock Band leaves EA and MTV publishes it on its own, it would be a big loss. Its sporting business also needs help or simply a breath of fresh air, as most games feel like cut & paste from the previous version. The losses and missed earnings estimates is great cause of concern.

4. THQI- barely any debt and tons of cash...they just need to put out better quality games.

5. KNM- Konami...big company, but not so big in the west. DDR franchise will get competition from ATVI's eventual Dance Hero. Its rock game is not very good...I could see a merger with a western partner.

6. Capcom- Said to be looking to merge with a western partner...TTWO? THQI? UBISoft? I'm sure the current financial mess is puttingt those plans on hold, althought the strength of the Yen vs. other currencies could facilitate this. But I doubt it.

Anyways, ERTS missed earnings today, while NTDOY reports no slowdown on its end the very same day (outside of effects of the Yen's strength), shows that customers look for value and quality games...I'm not so sure EA offers either at this point.

Consolidation in the Gaming Industry During the Economic Downturn

I agree with you Bruce...just picked up some THQ today.

The Take-Two/EA Merger Saga Continues

Take Two is not Yahoo! Completly different scenario outside of both were offered buy outs...that's the only thing in common that and this proposed mergers have. Yahoo!'s on the way down...Take Two is coming off a high and looking towards better times. Business wise, they're on completly different tracks.