Global Markets in Review: Risky Assets Stumble [View article]
Yes to all of the above, and therefore, like it or not you have to hedge at least moderately against all of these potentialities. Not pleasant emotionally and quite demanding in terms of that portion of your financial well-being for which you have assumed primary personal responsibility. As for 'possible inflation', surely that a very significant proportion of middle class people are still willing to spend from half a million to a million on a house (and let's add on the interest over the period during which it is being paid off) is a strong signal about inflation expectations. They will never save that total amount (in today's dollars) in their lifetimes and, further, what proportion of their gross incomes in the time they have left is represented by this (in constant dollars)? A bunch of three's dressed up as nine's, no ?
Got the feeling (could be wrong) that this rally is done. Time to take profits and dispose of positions that have a dubious future (just done that). Okay, could be missing out on "the greatest rally of the century". But then again, maybe not.
speedaimon - WIP is the only real return bond ETF that I have invested in (I am more comfortable in buying and holding these bonds directly). WIP is a new product - a global ex-US real return bond fond comprised of real return bonds from a variety of developed countries. The inflation adjustment will therefore vary across countries according to their national (GOVERNMENT CALCULATED) inflation rates and I have not seen any satisfactory analysis of how this might work out over the medium and long term. There is also the unknown impact of currency fluctuations (you are essentially also buying in to a basket of currencies). Finally, impossible to know just how well this product really performs until a number of years have passed. Let me just say that the market price of this product fluctuates much, much more than is the case with the real return bonds that I hold directly.
I came across a very useful comment in a blog a while ago that real return bonds can, with patience, be bought at times with a yield high enough to offset the fact that they are indexed to the GOVERNMENT's calculation of inflation (which most of us profoundly distrust). If you can pull that off, it makes sense to have a meaningful chunk of TAX-FREE RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS accounts in real return bonds (particularly so for those with partially indexed pensions which inevitably will fall behind if you are unfortunate enough to live beyond expectations).
Canadian Dollar vs. European Currencies [View article]
In the past half century, the Canadian dollar has traded above the American dollar on a number of occasions (and under a floating currency exchange system will do so on and off again in the future). The Canadian dollar has also traded at less than two-thirds of the value of the American dollar in that same time frame (and could do so again under similar circumstances). The average investor (more than the trader) can use these fluctuations to good advantage -- converting Canadian dollars to Euros or Swiss francs when it hit $1.10 produced a nice return and selling investments in American dollars as their value declined but the Canadian dollar declined even more enabled you to at least break even. U.S. investors who bought preferred shares of Canadian financial institutions at or near the most recent low of the Canadian dollar will have done quite well, no?
What Inflation Looks Like In Real Life [View article]
Uhm, where is the money going to come from for this modern technologically advanced navy in all the oceans of the world over the next 50 to 100 years? Why will Armaggedon of some kind necessary result should past naval performance not be projected into the future?
Double-Digit Returns: A Thing of the Past
[View article]
If you are in your early 20s, that is a great point of view to take. Lots of time left to modify you course if that is the way things did not turn out 20 years from now, no?
Double-Digit Returns: A Thing of the Past
[View article]
Though I agree entirely with author of the article and Larry House's comment, and in particular that asset allocation should now be altered moving forward, this may not be the time (and as Wang says, "timing is everything") to start messing around in a major way with what you have now allocated to equities (unless you are convinced you can see through the fog we are currently in). What I intend to do is finish averaging down a bunch of things that will not go to zero, have good dividends, and will do alright unless there is a two decade Great Depression. I seem to be developing an unusual and strong interest in real return bonds and the like!
Why It's Actually Different This Time [View article]
" In the 1930’s there was no retirement or thundering herd of people living off portfolios and not working."
And most women did not work, as is the case today (i.e. a major difference in labour market structure and source of household income).
The thundering herd is mainly comprised of institutional investors, investment bankers, hedge funds, and mutual funds etc. and not retail investors living off portfolios and not working.
Canadian Banks May Be Risk-Averse, But They're Not Immune [View article]
The worse case scenario (at the moment) is the possibility of a significant decline in the high dividends (but there are those who argue that this is already priced in).
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Latest | Highest ratedAs Correlations Increase, Portfolio-Diversifying Risks Mount [View article]
Global Markets in Review: Risky Assets Stumble [View article]
As for 'possible inflation', surely that a very significant proportion of middle class people are still willing to spend from half a million to a million on a house (and let's add on the interest over the period during which it is being paid off) is a strong signal about inflation expectations. They will never save that total amount (in today's dollars) in their lifetimes and, further, what proportion of their gross incomes in the time they have left is represented by this (in constant dollars)? A bunch of three's dressed up as nine's, no ?
Is a Crash Impending? [View article]
Is a Crash Impending? [View article]
Consumer Confidence Reflects Brighter Future [View article]
Okay, could be missing out on "the greatest rally of the century". But then again, maybe not.
Interest in Leveraged ETFs Waning? [View article]
"Leveraged ETFs can drop to zero if the market drops enough in one day. You can lose all your money."
Do TIPS ETFs Make Sense? [View article]
WIP is a new product - a global ex-US real return bond fond comprised of real return bonds from a variety of developed countries. The inflation adjustment will therefore vary across countries according to their national (GOVERNMENT CALCULATED) inflation rates and I have not seen any satisfactory analysis of how this might work out over the medium and long term. There is also the unknown impact of currency fluctuations (you are essentially also buying in to a basket of currencies). Finally, impossible to know just how well this product really performs until a number of years have passed. Let me just say that the market price of this product fluctuates much, much more than is the case with the real return bonds that I hold directly.
Do TIPS ETFs Make Sense? [View article]
If you can pull that off, it makes sense to have a meaningful chunk of TAX-FREE RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS accounts in real return bonds (particularly so for those with partially indexed pensions which inevitably will fall behind if you are unfortunate enough to live beyond expectations).
Commodities: Innovation North of the Border [View article]
Canadian Dollar vs. European Currencies [View article]
The Canadian dollar has also traded at less than two-thirds of the value of the American dollar in that same time frame (and could do so again under similar circumstances).
The average investor (more than the trader) can use these fluctuations to good advantage -- converting Canadian dollars to Euros or Swiss francs when it hit $1.10 produced a nice return and selling investments in American dollars as their value declined but the Canadian dollar declined even more enabled you to at least break even.
U.S. investors who bought preferred shares of Canadian financial institutions at or near the most recent low of the Canadian dollar will have done quite well, no?
What Inflation Looks Like In Real Life [View article]
Double-Digit Returns: A Thing of the Past [View article]
Double-Digit Returns: A Thing of the Past [View article]
What I intend to do is finish averaging down a bunch of things that will not go to zero, have good dividends, and will do alright unless there is a two decade Great Depression.
I seem to be developing an unusual and strong interest in real return bonds and the like!
Why It's Actually Different This Time [View article]
And most women did not work, as is the case today (i.e. a major difference in labour market structure and source of household income).
The thundering herd is mainly comprised of institutional investors, investment bankers, hedge funds, and mutual funds etc. and not retail investors living off portfolios and not working.
Canadian Banks May Be Risk-Averse, But They're Not Immune [View article]