Paulo

Equity Outlook Still Rosy Amid the Thorns of Uncertainty

The retail investors I know don't think things are too rosy. The markets have risen far and fast this year and putting any new money in equities right now is perceived as very risky given the probability of diminishing returns on the upside and the possibility if not the probability of an eventual correction of some significance. As for bonds etc., the yields lag well behind the risks (and if you don't see them, you need a new pair of untinted glasses!).

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

Jimbo - not too many people holding forth on stagflation as a possible scenario a couple of years from now. Why is that? And what would that mean in terms of equities, real return and other bonds, gold, commodities etc.

As Correlations Increase, Portfolio-Diversifying Risks Mount

So what might account for the remarkable jump of commodities from weak correlation to well-defined correlation with large-cap U.S. stocks?

Global Markets in Review: Risky Assets Stumble

Yes to all of the above, and therefore, like it or not you have to hedge at least moderately against all of these potentialities. Not pleasant emotionally and quite demanding in terms of that portion of your financial well-being for which you have assumed primary personal responsibility.
As for 'possible inflation', surely that a very significant proportion of middle class people are still willing to spend from half a million to a million on a house (and let's add on the interest over the period during which it is being paid off) is a strong signal about inflation expectations. They will never save that total amount (in today's dollars) in their lifetimes and, further, what proportion of their gross incomes in the time they have left is represented by this (in constant dollars)? A bunch of three's dressed up as nine's, no ?

Is a Crash Impending?

To come back to the main topic of the article - down she goes ...

Is a Crash Impending?

Time to buy some SDS (just done that) or whatever, no?

Consumer Confidence Reflects Brighter Future

Got the feeling (could be wrong) that this rally is done. Time to take profits and dispose of positions that have a dubious future (just done that).
Okay, could be missing out on "the greatest rally of the century". But then again, maybe not.

Interest in Leveraged ETFs Waning?

Checked your link Nick Ive -- it said this:

"Leveraged ETFs can drop to zero if the market drops enough in one day. You can lose all your money."

Do TIPS ETFs Make Sense?

speedaimon - WIP is the only real return bond ETF that I have invested in (I am more comfortable in buying and holding these bonds directly).
WIP is a new product - a global ex-US real return bond fond comprised of real return bonds from a variety of developed countries. The inflation adjustment will therefore vary across countries according to their national (GOVERNMENT CALCULATED) inflation rates and I have not seen any satisfactory analysis of how this might work out over the medium and long term. There is also the unknown impact of currency fluctuations (you are essentially also buying in to a basket of currencies). Finally, impossible to know just how well this product really performs until a number of years have passed. Let me just say that the market price of this product fluctuates much, much more than is the case with the real return bonds that I hold directly.

Do TIPS ETFs Make Sense?

I came across a very useful comment in a blog a while ago that real return bonds can, with patience, be bought at times with a yield high enough to offset the fact that they are indexed to the GOVERNMENT's calculation of inflation (which most of us profoundly distrust).
If you can pull that off, it makes sense to have a meaningful chunk of TAX-FREE RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS accounts in real return bonds (particularly so for those with partially indexed pensions which inevitably will fall behind if you are unfortunate enough to live beyond expectations).

Commodities: Innovation North of the Border

Yes Roger, we will all put 10% of our retirement accounts into this right away!

Canadian Dollar vs. European Currencies

In the past half century, the Canadian dollar has traded above the American dollar on a number of occasions (and under a floating currency exchange system will do so on and off again in the future).
The Canadian dollar has also traded at less than two-thirds of the value of the American dollar in that same time frame (and could do so again under similar circumstances).
The average investor (more than the trader) can use these fluctuations to good advantage -- converting Canadian dollars to Euros or Swiss francs when it hit $1.10 produced a nice return and selling investments in American dollars as their value declined but the Canadian dollar declined even more enabled you to at least break even.
U.S. investors who bought preferred shares of Canadian financial institutions at or near the most recent low of the Canadian dollar will have done quite well, no?

What Inflation Looks Like In Real Life

Uhm, where is the money going to come from for this modern technologically advanced navy in all the oceans of the world over the next 50 to 100 years? Why will Armaggedon of some kind necessary result should past naval performance not be projected into the future?

Double-Digit Returns: A Thing of the Past

If you are in your early 20s, that is a great point of view to take. Lots of time left to modify you course if that is the way things did not turn out 20 years from now, no?

Double-Digit Returns: A Thing of the Past

Though I agree entirely with author of the article and Larry House's comment, and in particular that asset allocation should now be altered moving forward, this may not be the time (and as Wang says, "timing is everything") to start messing around in a major way with what you have now allocated to equities (unless you are convinced you can see through the fog we are currently in).
What I intend to do is finish averaging down a bunch of things that will not go to zero, have good dividends, and will do alright unless there is a two decade Great Depression.
I seem to be developing an unusual and strong interest in real return bonds and the like!