Paulo

55 Comments

    • Current Financial Crisis Is a Black Swan [view article]
      The black swan theory refers to a large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations.

      WIKIPEDIA       Oct 06 09:36 PM
    • Current Financial Crisis Is a Black Swan [view article]
      The risk now is that we have both a Black Swan event (which is not always game-changing - e.g. 1987) and game-changing events simultaneously in progress.
      Investing for the longer term might still be in order (and yes your portfolio will undergo interesting gyrations), but there should be considerable hesitation about putting in money you cannot afford to lose or which you might need in the short or medium term.       Oct 06 12:43 PM
    • Defensive Positioning in the Bailout's Absence [view article]
      Mine are Cuban.

      But what about the Irish solution?       Sep 30 10:35 PM
    • Defensive Positioning in the Bailout's Absence [view article]
      The Irish government has just dealt with its banking crisis in this manner:
      for two years, it will guarantee ALL deposits, the senior and subordinated debt of banks, and interbanking lending.
      Seems appropriate and should maintain TRUST in the functioning of its major financial institutions without which any modern economy is doomed and this to the benefit of its people.
      There is a proverb to the effect that he who wants revenge should dig two graves.       Sep 30 05:32 PM
    • Stimulus Tracker: Results Are Scary [view article]
      Hope so!!! Sep 29 11:48 PM
    • ETF Pick of the Week: Two Swiss Havens [view article]
      SWZ (closed-ended fund) is also worth a look. Sep 29 11:33 AM
    • The Real Reason Behind the Global Financial Crisis, Part II [view article]
      What I find most troubling is the failure of regulators and vendors of CDS' to become alarmed at the incredible gap between the extent of 'insurable interest' involved and the volume and value of CDS' in circulation.
      A gigantic bubble of sorts emerged before their very eyes. Yet these same people would have been alarmed and horrified if a significant proportion of people in their neighbourhood took out an insurance policy on their dog.

      So let's have regulatory change forthwith which would appropriately link CDS' to 'insurable risk'. They are, after all is said and done, insurance policies and should be regulated as such.
      Sep 22 04:24 PM
    • Convertibles: Collateral Damage of the Shorting Ban [view article]
      What impact will this have on the likes of AGC (global convertibles and preferred convertibles) and similar funds? Sep 20 12:18 PM
    • Is AIG a Buy Following the Government Bailout? [view article]
      Thanks James Kar.
      I just doubled my money on AIG in 24 hours.
      But what I had in mind longer term, was that perhaps AIG would turn out like the Royal Trust affair in Canada a couple of decades ago. The Royal Bank of Canada ended up with the solid part of the business, but so as not to leave shareholders with nothing, a new company called Gentra was created and the crap that nobody wanted was dumped into that. If you held on to Gentra, you actually got most of your money back several years later.
      So I am hanging on to a couple of hundred shares (which are now free) to see if something like that happens or perhaps a miracle will occur and AIG survives relatively intact.
      Time to move on.
      Sep 19 05:21 PM
    • Is AIG a Buy Following the Government Bailout? [view article]
      If that is what you think, buy now for a couple of bucks before everyone agrees with you. Sep 17 04:53 PM
    • Four Questions About How We Got Here [view article]
      Wow! Did that market ever take a big dive after that uptick! Sep 15 07:08 PM
    • Four Questions About How We Got Here [view article]
      User 262591 -- S&P 500 after hitting 1200.74 is now in the inevitable uptick in the last part of trading which will result in optimistic news reports this evening. Sep 15 03:41 PM
    • Four Questions About How We Got Here [view article]
      User 262591 -- about resistance levels -- do not panic. The S&P 500 is, as I write, at 1205.47.
      The 52 week low is precisely 1200.44.
      In all probability it will be reported this evening that the S&P decline encountered "resistance" at the 1200 level.
      Less than an hour to go, let's see.
      Sep 15 03:11 PM
    • Some Housing Schadenfreude [view article]
      A big difference between Canada and the U.S. is that the interest you pay on what you owe on your principal residence is not in any way tax deductible but when you sell, there is no tax on whatever 'profit' you make. There is less incentive in Canada generally to bet on a McMansion with no money down and with a 40 year mortgage. As for the hot market in Calgary, it has happened before in that same place that a lot of people have walked away from homes they paid too much for.
      Things will get interesting when those who did buy particle board McMansions with no money down and 40 year mortgages are obliged to deal with all the major repairs that kind of 'investment' involves only halfway through the mortgage pay-off period.       Sep 13 02:49 PM
    • No Conspiracy Behind Tumbling Commodities [view article]
      Good overview of some important emerging trends in global macro-economics (whether you are a trader or investor).
      Do not much care whether Coxe is jumping the shark or gets eaten by one. May the best one win!       Sep 12 01:44 PM
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