Paulo's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/139973/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/176547-shorting-u-s-treasuries-the-best-trade-of-the-next-decade?source=feed#comment-790488 790488 True, interest rates have nowhere to go but up. If you know when and by how much, by all means load up on the double inverse ETFs.
Okay, if you do put a load of cash into government bonds at some point, using a double inverse to partially hedge your bet in the short term can be a useful move.]]> Fri, 04 Dec 2009 12:29:51 -0500 True, interest rates have nowhere to go but up. If you know when and by how much, by all means load up on the double inverse ETFs.
Okay, if you do put a load of cash into government bonds at some point, using a double inverse to partially hedge your bet in the short term can be a useful move.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/175961-dubai-just-the-first-sovereign-domino-to-fall?source=feed#comment-784687 784687
Bye, bye, Dubai!]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 13:17:21 -0500
Bye, bye, Dubai!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/174812-equity-outlook-still-rosy-amid-the-thorns-of-uncertainty?source=feed#comment-774196 774196 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:25:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174683-global-markets-in-review-share-prices-too-far-ahead-of-economic-reality?source=feed#comment-772432 772432 Sun, 22 Nov 2009 19:34:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/167067-as-correlations-increase-portfolio-diversifying-risks-mount?source=feed#comment-719911 719911 Sun, 18 Oct 2009 20:46:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163640-global-markets-in-review-risky-assets-stumble?source=feed#comment-694857 694857 As for 'possible inflation', surely that a very significant proportion of middle class people are still willing to spend from half a million to a million on a house (and let's add on the interest over the period during which it is being paid off) is a strong signal about inflation expectations. They will never save that total amount (in today's dollars) in their lifetimes and, further, what proportion of their gross incomes in the time they have left is represented by this (in constant dollars)? A bunch of three's dressed up as nine's, no ?]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 23:13:56 -0400 As for 'possible inflation', surely that a very significant proportion of middle class people are still willing to spend from half a million to a million on a house (and let's add on the interest over the period during which it is being paid off) is a strong signal about inflation expectations. They will never save that total amount (in today's dollars) in their lifetimes and, further, what proportion of their gross incomes in the time they have left is represented by this (in constant dollars)? A bunch of three's dressed up as nine's, no ?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159200-is-a-crash-impending?source=feed#comment-656529 656529 ]]> Tue, 01 Sep 2009 12:10:34 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159200-is-a-crash-impending?source=feed#comment-654844 654844 Mon, 31 Aug 2009 12:13:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158725-consumer-confidence-reflects-brighter-future?source=feed#comment-650216 650216 Okay, could be missing out on "the greatest rally of the century". But then again, maybe not. ]]> Fri, 28 Aug 2009 00:30:42 -0400 Okay, could be missing out on "the greatest rally of the century". But then again, maybe not. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156979-interest-in-leveraged-etfs-waning?source=feed#comment-637409 637409
"Leveraged ETFs can drop to zero if the market drops enough in one day. You can lose all your money."

]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 22:37:13 -0400
"Leveraged ETFs can drop to zero if the market drops enough in one day. You can lose all your money."

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156918-do-tips-etfs-make-sense?source=feed#comment-636596 636596 WIP is a new product - a global ex-US real return bond fond comprised of real return bonds from a variety of developed countries. The inflation adjustment will therefore vary across countries according to their national (GOVERNMENT CALCULATED) inflation rates and I have not seen any satisfactory analysis of how this might work out over the medium and long term. There is also the unknown impact of currency fluctuations (you are essentially also buying in to a basket of currencies). Finally, impossible to know just how well this product really performs until a number of years have passed. Let me just say that the market price of this product fluctuates much, much more than is the case with the real return bonds that I hold directly. ]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:58:56 -0400 WIP is a new product - a global ex-US real return bond fond comprised of real return bonds from a variety of developed countries. The inflation adjustment will therefore vary across countries according to their national (GOVERNMENT CALCULATED) inflation rates and I have not seen any satisfactory analysis of how this might work out over the medium and long term. There is also the unknown impact of currency fluctuations (you are essentially also buying in to a basket of currencies). Finally, impossible to know just how well this product really performs until a number of years have passed. Let me just say that the market price of this product fluctuates much, much more than is the case with the real return bonds that I hold directly. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156918-do-tips-etfs-make-sense?source=feed#comment-635893 635893 If you can pull that off, it makes sense to have a meaningful chunk of TAX-FREE RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS accounts in real return bonds (particularly so for those with partially indexed pensions which inevitably will fall behind if you are unfortunate enough to live beyond expectations).]]> Tue, 18 Aug 2009 23:09:18 -0400 If you can pull that off, it makes sense to have a meaningful chunk of TAX-FREE RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS accounts in real return bonds (particularly so for those with partially indexed pensions which inevitably will fall behind if you are unfortunate enough to live beyond expectations).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155716-commodities-innovation-north-of-the-border?source=feed#comment-627201 627201 Wed, 12 Aug 2009 15:34:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/153841-canadian-dollar-vs-european-currencies?source=feed#comment-617412 617412 The Canadian dollar has also traded at less than two-thirds of the value of the American dollar in that same time frame (and could do so again under similar circumstances).
The average investor (more than the trader) can use these fluctuations to good advantage -- converting Canadian dollars to Euros or Swiss francs when it hit $1.10 produced a nice return and selling investments in American dollars as their value declined but the Canadian dollar declined even more enabled you to at least break even.
U.S. investors who bought preferred shares of Canadian financial institutions at or near the most recent low of the Canadian dollar will have done quite well, no?]]> Thu, 06 Aug 2009 00:36:19 -0400 The Canadian dollar has also traded at less than two-thirds of the value of the American dollar in that same time frame (and could do so again under similar circumstances).
The average investor (more than the trader) can use these fluctuations to good advantage -- converting Canadian dollars to Euros or Swiss francs when it hit $1.10 produced a nice return and selling investments in American dollars as their value declined but the Canadian dollar declined even more enabled you to at least break even.
U.S. investors who bought preferred shares of Canadian financial institutions at or near the most recent low of the Canadian dollar will have done quite well, no?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127107-what-inflation-looks-like-in-real-life?source=feed#comment-434712 434712 Sat, 21 Mar 2009 19:02:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126417-double-digit-returns-a-thing-of-the-past?source=feed#comment-430089 430089 Tue, 17 Mar 2009 23:54:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126417-double-digit-returns-a-thing-of-the-past?source=feed#comment-429926 429926 What I intend to do is finish averaging down a bunch of things that will not go to zero, have good dividends, and will do alright unless there is a two decade Great Depression.
I seem to be developing an unusual and strong interest in real return bonds and the like! ]]> Tue, 17 Mar 2009 19:38:33 -0400 What I intend to do is finish averaging down a bunch of things that will not go to zero, have good dividends, and will do alright unless there is a two decade Great Depression.
I seem to be developing an unusual and strong interest in real return bonds and the like! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125580-why-it-s-actually-different-this-time?source=feed#comment-423747 423747
And most women did not work, as is the case today (i.e. a major difference in labour market structure and source of household income).

The thundering herd is mainly comprised of institutional investors, investment bankers, hedge funds, and mutual funds etc. and not retail investors living off portfolios and not working. ]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 18:32:13 -0400
And most women did not work, as is the case today (i.e. a major difference in labour market structure and source of household income).

The thundering herd is mainly comprised of institutional investors, investment bankers, hedge funds, and mutual funds etc. and not retail investors living off portfolios and not working. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125346-canadian-banks-may-be-risk-averse-but-they-re-not-immune?source=feed#comment-422423 422423 Wed, 11 Mar 2009 20:06:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124602-the-rally-when-it-comes-will-be-a-doozy?source=feed#comment-416818 416818 Fri, 06 Mar 2009 21:09:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124114-potash-stocks-sinking-on-uralkali-news?source=feed#comment-413126 413126 There have literally been times when coming back from an appointment, or whatever, the stuff was gone (currencies, equities, and even indexes).]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 14:59:12 -0500 There have literally been times when coming back from an appointment, or whatever, the stuff was gone (currencies, equities, and even indexes).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123859-is-buy-and-hold-investing-dead?source=feed#comment-411990 411990 Tue, 03 Mar 2009 20:29:07 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123175-bank-bailouts-and-trust-preferreds-still-too-much-risk-here?source=feed#comment-407469 407469 Let me take a risk and add to the confusion -- the traditional preferreds might turn out to be canaries in the coal mines in terms of an eventual rebound.
They might go up quickly and before common equity when (or should I say if) light appears at the end of the tunnel.





]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 02:07:43 -0500 Let me take a risk and add to the confusion -- the traditional preferreds might turn out to be canaries in the coal mines in terms of an eventual rebound.
They might go up quickly and before common equity when (or should I say if) light appears at the end of the tunnel.





]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123175-bank-bailouts-and-trust-preferreds-still-too-much-risk-here?source=feed#comment-406631 406631 Fri, 27 Feb 2009 20:15:29 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122319-how-to-survive-your-best-guess?source=feed#comment-402316 402316 Tue, 24 Feb 2009 23:01:31 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121927-sds-a-way-to-ensure-peace-of-mind?source=feed#comment-399444 399444 Not that SDS does not have its uses.]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 00:28:31 -0500 Not that SDS does not have its uses.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121847-william-bernstein-don-t-panic-and-sell-into-a-crash?source=feed#comment-398144 398144 Some are 80% in equities (big problem) some are 80% in bonds (happy campers).
Some are just having fun.]]> Sat, 21 Feb 2009 20:39:35 -0500 Some are 80% in equities (big problem) some are 80% in bonds (happy campers).
Some are just having fun.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121847-william-bernstein-don-t-panic-and-sell-into-a-crash?source=feed#comment-398047 398047 Most people are not quite ready to do that and are afraid of a final, perhaps 30% leg down.
Just about everybody took a hit in 2008 even if you shorted, averaged down, or whatever.
As we survey the damage, there are decisions such as whether the time has come or is coming to average down country funds and\or indexes that have declined from $20 to less than $4 (but will never go down to zero) such that you have a reasonable chance of getting your capital back in your own lifetime!
I will leave leveraging 2:1 to the next Keynes.]]> Sat, 21 Feb 2009 17:41:52 -0500 Most people are not quite ready to do that and are afraid of a final, perhaps 30% leg down.
Just about everybody took a hit in 2008 even if you shorted, averaged down, or whatever.
As we survey the damage, there are decisions such as whether the time has come or is coming to average down country funds and\or indexes that have declined from $20 to less than $4 (but will never go down to zero) such that you have a reasonable chance of getting your capital back in your own lifetime!
I will leave leveraging 2:1 to the next Keynes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121753-scary-numbers?source=feed#comment-397086 397086 'I think we are setting up for a massive rally - much more than the 20% rallies we have had...While 30-40% might seem laughable, the biggest up years for U.S. markets that I know of occurred during the 1930s.'


]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 16:04:41 -0500 'I think we are setting up for a massive rally - much more than the 20% rallies we have had...While 30-40% might seem laughable, the biggest up years for U.S. markets that I know of occurred during the 1930s.'


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121650-5-reasons-to-follow-soros-s-oil-rebound-play?source=feed#comment-396087 396087 Fri, 20 Feb 2009 02:16:16 -0500