Paulo

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    • Fri May 30th 13:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Oil a Bubble? Part Two
      Ernie M. -- whenever I have heard, 'they ain't making it no more' (usually combined with you had better hurry and buy because of increasing demand caused by demographics or whatever), and whether this is applied to land or whatever, things have never ended well for the last ones to join the party.
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    • Tue May 27th 21:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Realities of Natural Gas
      So, did I do the right thing when I signed a 5 year Declining Natural Gas Price plan at 41.9 cents per cubic meter on April 24 and falling by one cent per cubic meter each year thereafter??

      View article »
    • Thu May 22nd 15:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Recent Oil Spike: 'Irrational Exuberance'?
      There is a considerable amount of speculation, if not in oil itself, as to whether or not the current spike signals the beginning of a mania or a bubble.
      There is little or nothing that I have come across that deals with the impact on the American and global economy and markets on the bursting of such a bubble, if it is one.
      View article »
    • Thu May 22nd 13:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Recent Oil Spike: 'Irrational Exuberance'?
      Well, if this turns out to be yet another bubble, it is the wrong one at the wrong time.
      View article »
    • Tue May 20th 23:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Leveraged ETFs: Buy and Holders Beware, These Are for Active Traders
      So if you are not sure financials are dead (and I am not either) you can use leveraged ETFs to protect your position(s). Even though leveraged ETFs are far from perfect you can still arrange things so as not to take a significant loss.
      This is one of the things the above article may be trying to get across.
      View article »
    • Tue May 20th 18:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Leveraged ETFs: Buy and Holders Beware, These Are for Active Traders
      Gary is right in pointing out that leveraged ETFs can work well for protecting positions without having to sell.
      The size of a leveraged ETF position bought initially to short can be reduced as the market changes, to the changed objective of protecting positions. And for the rigorous, a stop loss at would prevent any significant loss on the remainder of the holding.
      Buy and hold is definitely not the way to go.
      View article »
    • Sat May 10th 18:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Commodities: Bubble or Not?
      So, does global nuclear war start at $150 a barrel, $200 a barrel or $250 a barrel.

      And what will that do to producers and supply? Or will these be strategically avoided?

      Very large short positions may not be very useful, no?

      Okay, I admit that my mind would turn to shorting somewhere between $150 and $200 a barrel, but I am not sure that I would short producers, including oil sands.

      So what exactly would be shorted and in what time frame?
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 25th 15:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us
      The Baby Boom herd may not stampede for the exits with their equities all at the same time and with the same type of equities. As people retire, though they might lower the proportion of equities in their portfolios, they may also move away from Yahoo and China Mobile and more towards Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson (more established holdings with good dividends). Those who need cash flow will shift both to dividend stocks and a greater variety of fixed income investments.
      I remember reading a couple of decades ago that in the aging societies of the then industrialized world (how things change!) that there would be a transfer of wealth to other parts of the world in search of higher yield. This has already happened and is continuing.
      Also, the demographics and economic growth patterns in global perspective do not presage a collapse of world stock markets as American (and Australian and Canadian) Baby Boomers retire and sell off their equities en masse in a desperate lunge for cash.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 14th 20:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Global Stock Market Performance
      And current P/E's may not accurately reflect country P/E's six months or a year from now. At best, reasonable people might conclude that Shanghai and the U.S. look expensive at the moment, despite differences on the other measures.
      View article »
    • Thu Apr 10th 16:08 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It
      So your argument is that the U.S. is headed into a heavy recession. The evidence is declining GDP, falling home prices (with no end in sight), the more than doubling of household debt as a proportion of GDP (and the rising use of more expensive credit card debt), declining non-farm payrolls and increasing civilian unemployment, rising bankruptcies, falling corporate earnings and the ongoing disaster in the financial sector. No mention is made of the financially overextended American government.
      It is also argued that the U.S. will take the rest of the world with it. The evidence here is thus far rather thin. You point to the Baltic Dry Index and railroad activity data. The data on world stock markets clearly indicate that it the U.S. markets that are the most overvalued.
      Though 'pockyclips' (see above) is right in pointing out that the growing middle class in India and China (and other emerging market countries) will not be able to fill the gap created by U.S. consumers in recession mode, the worldwide growth of the middle class (who are middle class in terms of purchasing power parity of their local curency) is resulting in much stronger domestic markets which might continue to grow even during a U.S. recession.
      The decoupling thesis may have been carried too far, but it remains to be seen whether the rest of the world will go into economic collapse because U.S. consumers are having difficulty with their mortgage and credit card payments and that the world will only re-emerge from this when these same consumers (and their banks) have their financial affairs back in order.
      Half of the construction cranes in the world are said to be currently found in China and would appear to be, thus far, still active.
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 26th 22:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Am Cutting Back on Commodities
      Good article -- I have no significant investment in commodities, but it captures accurately the current existential situation from the perspective of an investor. Traders may see things differently.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 20th 22:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Where Will the 'Commodity Currencies' Head Next?
      Research has documented that for more than two decades, in recessions you long the American dollar and short the Canadian one (and the Canadian and Australian currencies behave in a somewhat similar fashion even when interest rates are different).
      Warren Buffett is probably right in predicting that the Canadian dollar will, in general, rise against the American dollar over the next 5 to 10 years.
      However, one can question whether the pattern of more than two decades during recessions will persist to the extent there is 'decoupling'.
      Anyway, today the American dollar is up, the Canadian dollar down and my stop losses activated and I no longer have Euros or Swiss francs. Sometimes, I scratch my head.
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 18th 20:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The End of U.S. Investing as We Know It?
      Good thinking, 'iThinkBig'.
      Declaring the U.S. economy a 'national emergency' will re-establish consumer confidence and trigger a run on U.S. Treasuries, no?
      View article »
    • Tue Mar 18th 19:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The End of U.S. Investing as We Know It?
      Good graph 'crowdofcheerleeders'. If Bernanke has that hanging on his office wall, I know understand fully what he is doing.
      Do you think Bernanke has gone ultralong on financials??
      View article »
    • Mon Mar 17th 14:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      4 Recommendations to Defend Against a Financial Armageddon
      The main point of the article is that the financial system is in crisis due to over-leverage based on phony assets.
      At the macro level, that is true, but at the micro level as we look around what about Goldman Sachs shorting the paper it was selling its clients, what about Bank of Montreal losing hundreds of millions gambling on natural gas contracts, CIBC taking on as a counterparty what one commentator likened to having your 100 foot yacht insured by a middle class neighbour, Societe Generale losing 5 or 6 billion because of an improperly supervised trader, and so on. There is clearly a need for a secular Protestant Reformation here.
      View article »
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