Seeking Alpha

Paulo » Comments » AIQ

  • The Global Recession's Here: How to Profit from It [View article]
    So your argument is that the U.S. is headed into a heavy recession. The evidence is declining GDP, falling home prices (with no end in sight), the more than doubling of household debt as a proportion of GDP (and the rising use of more expensive credit card debt), declining non-farm payrolls and increasing civilian unemployment, rising bankruptcies, falling corporate earnings and the ongoing disaster in the financial sector. No mention is made of the financially overextended American government.
    It is also argued that the U.S. will take the rest of the world with it. The evidence here is thus far rather thin. You point to the Baltic Dry Index and railroad activity data. The data on world stock markets clearly indicate that it the U.S. markets that are the most overvalued.
    Though 'pockyclips' (see above) is right in pointing out that the growing middle class in India and China (and other emerging market countries) will not be able to fill the gap created by U.S. consumers in recession mode, the worldwide growth of the middle class (who are middle class in terms of purchasing power parity of their local curency) is resulting in much stronger domestic markets which might continue to grow even during a U.S. recession.
    The decoupling thesis may have been carried too far, but it remains to be seen whether the rest of the world will go into economic collapse because U.S. consumers are having difficulty with their mortgage and credit card payments and that the world will only re-emerge from this when these same consumers (and their banks) have their financial affairs back in order.
    Half of the construction cranes in the world are said to be currently found in China and would appear to be, thus far, still active.
    Apr 10 16:08 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
More on AIQ by Paulo
Paulo's
Comments Stats
116 comments
Rating: 36 (69 - 33 )