Paulo

Equity Outlook Still Rosy Amid the Thorns of Uncertainty

The retail investors I know don't think things are too rosy. The markets have risen far and fast this year and putting any new money in equities right now is perceived as very risky given the probability of diminishing returns on the upside and the possibility if not the probability of an eventual correction of some significance. As for bonds etc., the yields lag well behind the risks (and if you don't see them, you need a new pair of untinted glasses!).

Global Markets in Review: Share Prices Too Far Ahead of Economic Reality

Jimbo - not too many people holding forth on stagflation as a possible scenario a couple of years from now. Why is that? And what would that mean in terms of equities, real return and other bonds, gold, commodities etc.

Is a Crash Impending?

To come back to the main topic of the article - down she goes ...

Is a Crash Impending?

Time to buy some SDS (just done that) or whatever, no?

Double-Digit Returns: A Thing of the Past

If you are in your early 20s, that is a great point of view to take. Lots of time left to modify you course if that is the way things did not turn out 20 years from now, no?

Double-Digit Returns: A Thing of the Past

Though I agree entirely with author of the article and Larry House's comment, and in particular that asset allocation should now be altered moving forward, this may not be the time (and as Wang says, "timing is everything") to start messing around in a major way with what you have now allocated to equities (unless you are convinced you can see through the fog we are currently in).
What I intend to do is finish averaging down a bunch of things that will not go to zero, have good dividends, and will do alright unless there is a two decade Great Depression.
I seem to be developing an unusual and strong interest in real return bonds and the like!

Why It's Actually Different This Time

" In the 1930’s there was no retirement or thundering herd of people living off portfolios and not working."

And most women did not work, as is the case today (i.e. a major difference in labour market structure and source of household income).

The thundering herd is mainly comprised of institutional investors, investment bankers, hedge funds, and mutual funds etc. and not retail investors living off portfolios and not working.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

Well, if there is a huge rally (and at some point there will be), it might provide an opportunity to those who averaged down (among other strategies) a chance to bail out of positions they no longer want to hold (particularly if currency variables are favourable).

Scary Numbers

Richard wrote just a month and a half ago:
'I think we are setting up for a massive rally - much more than the 20% rallies we have had...While 30-40% might seem laughable, the biggest up years for U.S. markets that I know of occurred during the 1930s.'

Global Markets in Review: New Year Off to a Cheerful Start

'selective buying in global markets is in order, and ’09 may turn out to be a good year for a discerning stock picker'

Picking stocks at the global level in the current macro-economic environment is a high risk strategy for individual investors. You can make the right calls and be robbed by significant currency fluctuations. And if you get it wrong both ways, watch out!

Long Term Investors Should Avoid Leveraged ETFs

But reality is that if, when it was clear that there was trouble ahead a year ago last summer, you had deployed leveraged short ETFs to protect your account (and yes they are a pain in the ass and few who have used them have any great enthusiasm for them) you would have lost less than Harvard's Endowment Fund and many hedge and mutual funds.
No doubt there are those who will respond that they lost their entire inheritance.

Panic-Crash Sentiment Causing Market Volatility

So the consensus then is that the recession might be deeper and more protracted than originally thought.

Defensive Positioning in the Bailout's Absence

Mine are Cuban.

But what about the Irish solution?

Defensive Positioning in the Bailout's Absence

The Irish government has just dealt with its banking crisis in this manner:
for two years, it will guarantee ALL deposits, the senior and subordinated debt of banks, and interbanking lending.
Seems appropriate and should maintain TRUST in the functioning of its major financial institutions without which any modern economy is doomed and this to the benefit of its people.
There is a proverb to the effect that he who wants revenge should dig two graves.

Citigroup Analyst: More Volatility Ahead for U.S. Equities

Selling banks or sector indexes thereof after they have declined 50% or 60% may not turn out to be a good idea looking back five years from now. Dividends may not decline to zero though stock dilution will be a problem.
May not even be a good idea for those who bought at recent lows to bail out if they knew what they were doing.
At best, there will be a long slide sideways in the medium term but that might not be a factor for alarm with a well diversified portfolio.















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