Car Guy

Harley Davidson's CEO to Retire: Car Czar Next?

I'd be interested in hearing the investment thesis for your long position in HOG (and perhaps for GE as well). Disclosure: short HOG. No position in GE.

Quick short thesis: Earnings estimates are too high -- most estimates out there imply top line decline of 5-10%. Conversely, the auto industry has seen declines of 25-35% the past few months. HOG sales are likely to fare worse as they are more discretionary in nature. HOG dealer in Santa Cruz, CA that recently shuttered reported sales declines of 70% -- that sounds more realistic to me.

Exposure to subprime loans and payback from aggressive lending practices is the other shoe to drop.

Potential funding issues at HDFS is yet another ticking time bomb.

Good luck!