David Tsao's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/140028/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/180134/comments?source=feed#comment-825759 825759
The trailing 5 year margin averages won't last unless Garmin comes out with new products, not just updated models of current devices. You have to assume margin erosion considering the competition and innovation these technology companies will bring to hand held devices. Google Maps splashing entry onto the next generation of Droid phones won't help either. Although mobile isn't Google's moat, the marginal cost of distribution for Google to push their maps service to Droid phones is extremely low. Google Maps deployment to mobile devices is not meant to generate returns from that program alone. They are setting the stage to collect geo-location data of mobile users to help further their AdWords cash cow. Give these services away for free to generate revenue somewhere else. Watch out for Google's developments after their recent AdMob acquisition. With tight integration into the mobile ad market and geo-location data collection, you have a brand new potent mix for advertisers to buy keywords.

Given that, your analysis is still very intriguing that I'm going to dig into GRMN a little deeper. I just wouldn't dismiss Google's efforts so quickly. They are a serious threat to GRMN and Tom Tom.]]> Tue, 29 Dec 2009 21:19:06 -0500
The trailing 5 year margin averages won't last unless Garmin comes out with new products, not just updated models of current devices. You have to assume margin erosion considering the competition and innovation these technology companies will bring to hand held devices. Google Maps splashing entry onto the next generation of Droid phones won't help either. Although mobile isn't Google's moat, the marginal cost of distribution for Google to push their maps service to Droid phones is extremely low. Google Maps deployment to mobile devices is not meant to generate returns from that program alone. They are setting the stage to collect geo-location data of mobile users to help further their AdWords cash cow. Give these services away for free to generate revenue somewhere else. Watch out for Google's developments after their recent AdMob acquisition. With tight integration into the mobile ad market and geo-location data collection, you have a brand new potent mix for advertisers to buy keywords.

Given that, your analysis is still very intriguing that I'm going to dig into GRMN a little deeper. I just wouldn't dismiss Google's efforts so quickly. They are a serious threat to GRMN and Tom Tom.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176045/comments?source=feed#comment-786466 786466
Apple has it's own mojo going and will be leaders for quite some time.]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 11:15:31 -0500
Apple has it's own mojo going and will be leaders for quite some time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176045/comments?source=feed#comment-786464 786464
Apple has it's own mojo going and will be leaders for quite some time.]]> Wed, 02 Dec 2009 11:15:18 -0500
Apple has it's own mojo going and will be leaders for quite some time.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165441/comments?source=feed#comment-742396 742396 Tue, 03 Nov 2009 11:23:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/159522/comments?source=feed#comment-718932 718932 Sat, 17 Oct 2009 21:17:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/158620/comments?source=feed#comment-652008 652008 Sat, 29 Aug 2009 00:11:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/151029/comments?source=feed#comment-606089 606089
]]> Wed, 29 Jul 2009 00:43:00 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147656/comments?source=feed#comment-580378 580378
Margin growth is the only thing that should be propping up their current share price, and that growth isn't going to happen for a while. ]]> Thu, 09 Jul 2009 09:30:00 -0400
Margin growth is the only thing that should be propping up their current share price, and that growth isn't going to happen for a while. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144231/comments?source=feed#comment-555757 555757
I don't trust the 30 second blips powering some of the major financial networks, so I end up digging for data myself. Reading 10K's, print, and books helps take the emotion out of the analysis. That slow cycle prevents me from doing stupid things in the market.]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 02:11:02 -0400
I don't trust the 30 second blips powering some of the major financial networks, so I end up digging for data myself. Reading 10K's, print, and books helps take the emotion out of the analysis. That slow cycle prevents me from doing stupid things in the market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140601/comments?source=feed#comment-528073 528073 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 11:01:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137664/comments?source=feed#comment-506002 506002 Fri, 15 May 2009 19:55:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131840/comments?source=feed#comment-472498 472498
A quote from Mark back in Jan/2008
"Margin Expansion alone could drive double-digit EPS Growth"

3-months later in Apr.2008 his research comments for AMZN,
"The margin outlook is disappointing"

Amazon continues to operate with low margins. They've had impressive top line growth in this environment, but until margins expand to justify the valuation, I'm staying away. You'd be wise not to digest too much of Mark Mahaney's analysis.
]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 10:09:45 -0400
A quote from Mark back in Jan/2008
"Margin Expansion alone could drive double-digit EPS Growth"

3-months later in Apr.2008 his research comments for AMZN,
"The margin outlook is disappointing"

Amazon continues to operate with low margins. They've had impressive top line growth in this environment, but until margins expand to justify the valuation, I'm staying away. You'd be wise not to digest too much of Mark Mahaney's analysis.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129604/comments?source=feed#comment-453259 453259 ]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 09:59:37 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129103/comments?source=feed#comment-452944 452944
Method of payment also make a huge difference whether the school demands payment up front (like Strayer). I honestly don't know the payment details for Apollo's programs, nor do I have student demographics off the top of my head, but it's best to dig into that before diving in.

]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 01:27:31 -0400
Method of payment also make a huge difference whether the school demands payment up front (like Strayer). I honestly don't know the payment details for Apollo's programs, nor do I have student demographics off the top of my head, but it's best to dig into that before diving in.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117855/comments?source=feed#comment-374075 374075
Regarding the unfreezing of securitization markets, that was something that was pushed in the previous administration. It obviously helped, but it's still hard to see to what degree on companies like APOL and ESI which had a relatively large exposure to private lending compared to STRA and DV.

I'd be a bit cautious about this sector, as everyone has or will continue to pile on to this boat. ]]> Tue, 03 Feb 2009 00:55:40 -0500
Regarding the unfreezing of securitization markets, that was something that was pushed in the previous administration. It obviously helped, but it's still hard to see to what degree on companies like APOL and ESI which had a relatively large exposure to private lending compared to STRA and DV.

I'd be a bit cautious about this sector, as everyone has or will continue to pile on to this boat. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115610/comments?source=feed#comment-366090 366090
There is enough ammunition for some customers take this incident, along with the the rash of terrorist incidents last year and look at other BPO vendors in other countries as Analysis Caution points out. Hence, best not to pull a quick trigger on WIT or INFY just yet.



]]> Sun, 25 Jan 2009 22:58:40 -0500
There is enough ammunition for some customers take this incident, along with the the rash of terrorist incidents last year and look at other BPO vendors in other countries as Analysis Caution points out. Hence, best not to pull a quick trigger on WIT or INFY just yet.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113865/comments?source=feed#comment-350389 350389
It's an upward trend. They will have to up their revenues to keep their margins, or face interesting choices:

- Jack up the Amazon Prime membership
- Reduce free shipping coverage on specific product categories
- Drop the program all together (this would hurt them pretty bad, doubt they would do this but you never know)

What would do in Bezos' shoes? ]]> Fri, 09 Jan 2009 00:36:38 -0500
It's an upward trend. They will have to up their revenues to keep their margins, or face interesting choices:

- Jack up the Amazon Prime membership
- Reduce free shipping coverage on specific product categories
- Drop the program all together (this would hurt them pretty bad, doubt they would do this but you never know)

What would do in Bezos' shoes? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113679/comments?source=feed#comment-349259 349259
PWC isn't looking good here.
]]> Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:50:12 -0500
PWC isn't looking good here.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113067/comments?source=feed#comment-347087 347087
Are you doing something similar along those lines? I couldn't jump straight in blindly and use his system. The back testing research he did shows good results, but I'm not sure if he ran his back test across every possible permutation of stock sets over the same period.

]]> Tue, 06 Jan 2009 01:19:43 -0500
Are you doing something similar along those lines? I couldn't jump straight in blindly and use his system. The back testing research he did shows good results, but I'm not sure if he ran his back test across every possible permutation of stock sets over the same period.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113067/comments?source=feed#comment-345984 345984
The company does have an R&D expense, but it averages at a low 2.4% over the past 10 years. I wouldn't worry so much about their secured notes due in 2011. The company has available to them a $250mm line of credit, and recently announced job cuts to keep operating costs in check. These are tough times for any company, but as long as they can survive with their core talent in check and keep their continued focus on managing operating costs, they will come out ok. Brian Walker has done a good job managing the companies costs through their HMPS initiative (Herman Miller Production System)... basically lean manufacturing. The results show. During 2008 as commodity prices went through the roof, the company managed to fight through to protect operating margins. The effects of the high commodity costs were to show up in the last quarter, but they didn't.

The only misstep they made was jacking up the prices on their products to combat high raw materials cost. I hope that they didn't open up too many hedging contracts for steel back when prices were high.

They fought the commodity cost battle well... their next challenge where I do agree with you, is overall demand for office furniture. It won't pick up any time soon.

This is a well managed company, worth keeping an eye on.

Discloure: I own shares of MLHR.

]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 23:12:48 -0500
The company does have an R&D expense, but it averages at a low 2.4% over the past 10 years. I wouldn't worry so much about their secured notes due in 2011. The company has available to them a $250mm line of credit, and recently announced job cuts to keep operating costs in check. These are tough times for any company, but as long as they can survive with their core talent in check and keep their continued focus on managing operating costs, they will come out ok. Brian Walker has done a good job managing the companies costs through their HMPS initiative (Herman Miller Production System)... basically lean manufacturing. The results show. During 2008 as commodity prices went through the roof, the company managed to fight through to protect operating margins. The effects of the high commodity costs were to show up in the last quarter, but they didn't.

The only misstep they made was jacking up the prices on their products to combat high raw materials cost. I hope that they didn't open up too many hedging contracts for steel back when prices were high.

They fought the commodity cost battle well... their next challenge where I do agree with you, is overall demand for office furniture. It won't pick up any time soon.

This is a well managed company, worth keeping an eye on.

Discloure: I own shares of MLHR.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113123/comments?source=feed#comment-345943 345943
At the heart of any economic stability is employment. We won't see stabilization until we go through massive layoffs (which have not occured yet).
]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 22:18:44 -0500
At the heart of any economic stability is employment. We won't see stabilization until we go through massive layoffs (which have not occured yet).
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101551/comments?source=feed#comment-289289 289289
]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 23:21:13 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101481/comments?source=feed#comment-289229 289229
Do you remember Mark Mahaney's call on AMZN back at the start of the year? It was in the 100's. He also predicted increasing operating margins for 2008.

]]> Thu, 23 Oct 2008 20:21:57 -0400
Do you remember Mark Mahaney's call on AMZN back at the start of the year? It was in the 100's. He also predicted increasing operating margins for 2008.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99516/comments?source=feed#comment-280510 280510
The recent interventions aren't saying much to tame the market's wild rides... but over time the newly injected capital should drive a wedge into the fundamental economic situation and hopefully bottom out.

As for timing this, that depends on your frame of reference. ]]> Sun, 12 Oct 2008 11:27:34 -0400
The recent interventions aren't saying much to tame the market's wild rides... but over time the newly injected capital should drive a wedge into the fundamental economic situation and hopefully bottom out.

As for timing this, that depends on your frame of reference. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92471/comments?source=feed#comment-238353 238353 Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:03:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88668/comments?source=feed#comment-221287 221287 ]]> Sat, 02 Aug 2008 22:02:01 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87291/comments?source=feed#comment-217921 217921
AMZN sold their European DVD rental business, while at the same time experienced a reduction in gross margins due to price promotions, Amazon Prime, and other factors. Breaking it out, they went from 27.1% in gross margin to 25.8% in North America, and grew 20.8 to 21.5% from their international channel.

]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 21:47:28 -0400
AMZN sold their European DVD rental business, while at the same time experienced a reduction in gross margins due to price promotions, Amazon Prime, and other factors. Breaking it out, they went from 27.1% in gross margin to 25.8% in North America, and grew 20.8 to 21.5% from their international channel.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87080/comments?source=feed#comment-215313 215313
The one fault that I find with the electric grid analogy, is that what businesses and consumers leave behind during the industrial revolution and what they woud leave now.

Leaving steam for the electric grid, versus leaving my blade server for a fully managed service environment present different incremental gains in terms of business continuity. Even if services like saleforce.com, Amazon's AWS, Google Aps, get to a level 99.999999% up time, there are still several hurdles to cross, some of the biggest challenges being:

- data security/privacy
- the up front systems integration cost to hook up company data/processes into to the "cloud".
- new players need to enter the market to provide sufficient competition to open up my choices so as to not risk placing my company's critical systems/data into one company's platform.

It is rather risky to accumlate Amazon stock solely on their AWS service (or the potential for it). Other market entrants are going to enter this picture, and until the Fortune 500 switch to cloud computing, this is going to be a very long evolution.

I give Amazon kudos for making impressive revenues consdering the economic environment, however they continue to see margin compression with their promos/discounts.

]]> Sat, 26 Jul 2008 22:18:07 -0400
The one fault that I find with the electric grid analogy, is that what businesses and consumers leave behind during the industrial revolution and what they woud leave now.

Leaving steam for the electric grid, versus leaving my blade server for a fully managed service environment present different incremental gains in terms of business continuity. Even if services like saleforce.com, Amazon's AWS, Google Aps, get to a level 99.999999% up time, there are still several hurdles to cross, some of the biggest challenges being:

- data security/privacy
- the up front systems integration cost to hook up company data/processes into to the "cloud".
- new players need to enter the market to provide sufficient competition to open up my choices so as to not risk placing my company's critical systems/data into one company's platform.

It is rather risky to accumlate Amazon stock solely on their AWS service (or the potential for it). Other market entrants are going to enter this picture, and until the Fortune 500 switch to cloud computing, this is going to be a very long evolution.

I give Amazon kudos for making impressive revenues consdering the economic environment, however they continue to see margin compression with their promos/discounts.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85562/comments?source=feed#comment-209222 209222
although Europe's auto business is showing weakness, moto's are a way of life over there. Have you ever hit any of the cities in Italy? People willing to shell out premiums for a Harley, will distinguish themselves from the Piaggio loving public over there. The same goes for India, where it's all about dinky Hero Honda bikes. I asked a fellow coworker when I was there last year if he would ride a Harley around the streets of Mumbai... "fantastic" is the word he used. Affording one is a different story, but in time things should look good for Harley in emerging markets.

There is a good story the Chicago Tribune ran about Hog's versus Royal Enfields in India. An interesting read.

www.chicagotribune.com...
]]> Sat, 19 Jul 2008 01:30:36 -0400
although Europe's auto business is showing weakness, moto's are a way of life over there. Have you ever hit any of the cities in Italy? People willing to shell out premiums for a Harley, will distinguish themselves from the Piaggio loving public over there. The same goes for India, where it's all about dinky Hero Honda bikes. I asked a fellow coworker when I was there last year if he would ride a Harley around the streets of Mumbai... "fantastic" is the word he used. Affording one is a different story, but in time things should look good for Harley in emerging markets.

There is a good story the Chicago Tribune ran about Hog's versus Royal Enfields in India. An interesting read.

www.chicagotribune.com...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85562/comments?source=feed#comment-209218 209218
I still bought HOG because they will turn around when the economy turns around. It's not often you can buy a classic piece of Americana at this price.
]]> Sat, 19 Jul 2008 01:21:53 -0400
I still bought HOG because they will turn around when the economy turns around. It's not often you can buy a classic piece of Americana at this price.
]]>