PearlCreek

Buy the Rumor, Sell the News

Battipaglia is great. The hype monster of the tech bubble is now the bear of the credit crisis. He has become a comedy act.

John Hussman: Strenuously Overbought

I am usually a fan of Dr. John. This is horrendously shoddy work for him.

Another Perma-Bear Abandons Ship: James Grant This Time

Brian,

My world is spinning. This is the equivalent if Brad Pitt were to suddenly come out of the close.

Not exactly scientific, but David Rosenberg has proof we're still headed lower: "You know that when you have Ben Bernanke and Ken Lewis both saying the same thing - the recession is over - one of them can't possibly be telling the truth." Rosenberg warns markets will soon awaken to the reality of a new, frugal U.S. consumer.

Rosenberg has missed one of the greatest rallies of all time. He was calling for the market to go much lower at the March turning point and he AGAIN called for the market to go lower sometime in late June, early July.

He is as much a contrary indicator as Bernanke and Lewis.

Additional Dimensions of Value Investing

Geoff,

When you mention "volatility" in generic terms do you mean standard deviation as generated by QPP?

There Are No Good Choices for the Fed

John Maudlin is bearish and in a long-winded confusing way?

I am shocked, just shocked.

Just How Bullish Is This Market?

Roll Call

Doug Kass: Seems like a straight shooter who puts his money where his mouth is. Called the bottom. When he speaks, I will take note.

Battapaglia: One of the cheerleaders of the tech bubble. Listen to him and factor in the exact opposite of what he says as the more likely outcome.

Abelson: He has been bearish since his expulsion from the womb. It is how he is wired.

Tice: His livelihood depends on marketing to bears

Schiff: He is this generations Joe Granville

Expect Further Rise in the S&P 500

Looks like Brian stirred up a hornets nest. The great Michael Steinhart today on CNBC made an extraordinary proclamation that he knows nobody that is long term bullish on the U.S.

That is an incredible statement from one of the great money managers of all time given what surely must be his vast social and professional investment network.

The current bearish chatter reminds me of the 1999-2000 bullish chatter. The same bluster, the overwhelming proclamations of certainty, the same main thread of "things are different", the same main street/retail group think, and the parallels to clinging to a few themes that if repeated enough will most certainly come to fruition.

If you are wildly bearish, you have good reason to be and all the ammunition you need. The arguments are clear, concise, and logical. When things are that clear as the bear case is now, my warning lights go off. Sorry bears, but the "walk over and pick money up in the corner" has already been made. If you didn't profit wildly from last summer to March, you are a salmon swimming upstream.

I am not wildly bullish, but if you haven't flipped the trading switch in your brain to at least allow the possibility of further gains, you are not doing your job as a trader or an investor.

Time to Forsake Stocks for Bonds? Arnott and Arends Square Off

I would hardly call 15% of the sample population "revulsion", nor would I particularly describe the article describing the strategies that those financial guru's in the WSJ journal are fleeing to as MPT. I suspect 90% of the financial professionals couldn't adequately describe MPT much less construct a portfolio based on MPT.

I would probably describe it more as butt covering and trying to keep clients.

Roubini Puts Likely S&P Bottom at 600, Says 500 'Possible'

The PE ratios Roubini and others quote as bear market bottoms DID NOT occur on trough earnings. Russell Napier clearly debunks this myth in his excellent book, Anatomy of A Bear. The 74 bottom resulting in about a 7 PE was based on SP 500 aggregate earnings of about $9.35, the highest ever to that point. Earnings actually decreased in 1975.

The same with the 82 bottom. Aggregate SP 500 earnings were actually lower in 1983, well after the mega bull was 12 months old.

The higher probability scenario is some type of massive rally of significant price move upwards and of significant time and then a slow grinding sideways move or a slow grinding move with a downward bias over a couple of years.

I am looking for something like a move to 1000 over the next year or two and than a multiple year slide as the inflation fight takes grips and earnings recover. An SP500 of 750 on $90 earnings in 3-4 years puts you right on target historically for the start of the next great bull market.

The Rally, When It Comes, Will Be a Doozy

Athena,

I am leaning in your direction. There is way too much silence from the powers that be and showing up in the morning, shorting the financials and going home for the day is standard operating procedure. Those folks are walking a tightrope and I am not sure the bulk of them have a clue that they are about to get hung out to dry. I have no idea what shape it is going to take but it is coming.

Whenever any form of trading becomes effortless and easy, look out.

The information flow has started against the financial bears with GE and WFC. Two interesting days for those two.

Something is brewing and it is big.

The Cult of Peter Schiff - Is It Deserved?

Mr. Schiff needs a vehicle, either a managed pool of assets in which he is responsible for, or a newsletter or some type of index tracking his recommendations. Direction, timing, and selection of assets do matter and shouldn't have to be defended with blog posts or youtube videos. They should be reflected in measured performance numbers over time.

Time Not for a Bailout, But for Nationalization

Every academic economist should be given a one year sabbatical. These people are as useless as sports talk radio hosts. A bunch of bleacher bums with zero skin in any free market enterprise. Tenure? Skyrocketing tuition?

Give us all a break from theory.

Worrying About Large-Deposit Bank Runs

You have to stop. You are becoming obsessive

Another Knee-Jerk Proposal From Christopher Cox

Seeking Alpha needs a time out. The amount of articles is simply out of control. It is a daily race to see who can churn out more angst.