rajsekar

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    • Apple's 10 Million iPhone Target [view article]
      It has been very clear to everyone that Steve Jobs was either drunk or missed a decimal in forecasting sales for iPhone, especially 10 million phones in a single year. Steve Jobs took cell phone users for granted and of course his great fan(atics) base who will shell out anything for a product if Apple logo is embossed. Steve Jobs knew his blunder after just two weeks of iPhone sales and rushed to reduce the price. Now Apple has to meet their promised target and we can expect another round of price cuts for iPhone before next quarterly results. In conclusion, will 10 million iPhones make any difference to Apple's growth - less likely? It's a recession year and consumers will hesitate to spend money on luxury items which Apple churns out. How many Macs and Air Notebooks can Apple sell in next two quarters? Will iPhone SDK have any impact on sales? - will have to wait and see. Mar 10 11:43 AM
    • 10M iPhone Target Is a Non Issue [view article]
      Great analysis. To begin with, how did Steve Jobs arrive at 10 million iPhone sales forecast in one year? I would say that he was either drunk or missed a decimal in forecasting sales. Steve Jobs took cell phone users for granted and of course his great fan(atics) base who will shell out anything for a product if Apple logo is embossed. Steve Jobs knew his blunder after just two weeks of iPhone sales and rushed to reduce the price. Now Apple has to meet their promised target and we can expect another round of price cuts for iPhone before next quarterly results. In conclusion, will 10 million iPhones make any difference to Apple's growth - less likely? It's a recession year and consumers will hesitate to spend money on luxury items which Apple churns out. How many Macs and Air Notebooks can Apple sell in next two quarters? Apple fans will have to keep in mind that all Apple products are premium segment and growth potential is limited in coming years for this segment. Mar 03 11:29 AM
    • Apple Hits Lowest Level Since June; New iPhone Worries [view article]
      My dear friends (tom1234 and User 155370) - Wake up from your deep slumber. Wait until Apple stock bottoms at $90 before Olympics. If you guys are so desperate to sell 10 million iPhones, then try to open an AT&T franchise in your home town and sell few iPhones. Or go to Olympics and sell the Chinese some iPhones. Don't come to these forums and throw crap at what analysts have spent time to research. People are sick of Apple fanatics and their arm twisting tactics in all forums. If you guys are so smart, then Steve Jobs should hire you immediately. Feb 25 02:03 PM
    • Apple Hits Lowest Level Since June; New iPhone Worries [view article]
      There you go - one more opportunity for Apple fans to bash the reality. Are Apple fans living in NeverLand or are they paid by Steve Jobs? The days of iPod hitting the sales numbers are over. Wake up, Apple fans. It's time for reality check and the stock is going nowwhere for next 18 months. There is no growth in Apple's product lines, unless their fans want to keep buying these iPods and iPhones. Where is the 10 millionth iPhone? Wait until summer 2008 for another $100 price cut for iPhone. Feb 25 11:28 AM
    • Report Apple Has 'Slashed' Its 2008 NAND Flash Order Forecast [view article]
      There you go - one more opportunity for Apple fans to bash the reality. Are Apple fans living in NeverLand or are they paid by Steve Jobs? The days of iPod hitting the sales numbers are over. Wake up, Apple fans. It's time for reality check and the stock is going nowwhere for next 18 months. There is no growth in Apple's product lines, unless their fans want to keep buying these iPods and iPhones. Where is the 10 millionth iPhone? Wait until summer 2008 for another $100 price cut for iPhone. Feb 22 11:33 AM
    • Half Of All Display Ad Clicks Are Worthless [view article]
      Great story Erick. This is the biggest hoax that Google has unleashed on advertisers and small business units. Majority of search users click on ads to just get information and they have no intention to buy the product or link that they clicked. This is a known fact to Google and advertisers. I have seen many instances wherein my product link was clicked and there was no sale. Small business units should be tracking the ad clicks carefully every month and then terminate Google's ad contract if the sales figures do not match the number of clicks. People are so foolish to keep paying money to Google for this biggest business hoax ever played. I hope analytics companies tear this mystery shrouding Google's revenue growth from ad clicks. Small business units are better off placing ads in local city websites and print materials - the returns are justified.

      You have to think that the biggest bulls on Google are just plain idiots - the time has come to unearth the truth on why Google's stock is going to have a hard landing in 2008. It's funny to read analysis from Google bulls saying that the stock will hit $900 very soon. How long can these idiots spin such stories? We need more Ericks to give a rational look at this ad click hoax. I am sorry for Yahoo for being drawn into this comparison with Google. Yahoo as a company is doing fine with their excellent web portal business model and analysts kept comparing Google's stock price and results with Yahoo. Quarter after quarter these idiots drove Yahoo's price down based on Google's hoax and now they want to partner with Yahoo. What a gross injustice Wall Street has committed on Yahoo. Google knows that their heady days are coming to an end and the founders are creating another round of hype using Android, Open Office and YouTube. Can YouTube deliver any financial incentive to Google? I doubt if any single user will pay Google any penny if they start charging for uploading videos. YouTube can attract millions of eyeballs with zero revenue - Wall Street should wake up to this reality. If Google starts cluttering YouTube with ads., then users will look elsewhere. What a great hoax...       Feb 14 11:51 AM
    • The Inconvenient Truth About Current TV's $100 Million IPO [view article]
      Brewer, I am sorry for your friend-Al Gore. He should have minimum won his home state of Tennessee and Bill Clinton's home state of Arkansas. In that case Republicans would not have bothered about Florida votes. Bill Clinton literally left Gore high and dry in 2000 and just compare the Republican machinery which worked during the same period. Al Gore paid a high price for his association with the Democratic party which remained silent during the recounting days of Dec. 2000. Well, Gore could have again run in 2004 and the numbers were again not in his favor. A Presidential candidate should reach across most of the segments - liberals, conservatives, women, blue-collar, labor class, immigrants, etc. Can Gore atleast run for governorship in his own state of Tennessee and win? I doubt he can do it. Feb 12 02:30 PM
    • Apple: On an Innovation Treadmill [view article]
      Brewer, Tom Jackson, Mark2005 - Great comments; You guys are right on the point regarding innovation and breakthrough by Apple; the fundamental argument is how far will innovation push Apple to grow in coming years. Jobs should open the Mac ecosystem like Microsoft and make the OS battleground even. In a period of recession, majority of home PC users and middle income wage earners will try to pinch whatever savings they have. How many of these users can Apple entice in next few years with existing Mac products? My guess is very few. As Tom mentioned, the undeniable power and appeal of Apple products is an asset, but can Jobs translate that appeal to spectacular growth as Wall Street desires? I don't have an answer. The faster you rise the louder will be the crash. Apple's stock did meteoric rise in 2007 on iPhone's hype and all kinds of numbers were thrown by analysts last year. What's the ultimate result? The hype has been uncovered and Jobs knows that he has an uphill battle to sell 10 million iPhones by 2008. I am sure there will be another price cut for iPhone in summer '08 to simply achieve the 10 million target. 2008 is going to be a tough year for all IT/ Internet stocks, especially Apple, Microsoft, Google, Cisco and Sun.

      Brewer, I am sorry for your friend-Al Gore. He should have minimum won his home state of Tennessee and Bill Clinton's home state of Arkansas. In that case Republicans would not have bothered about Florida votes. Bill Clinton literally left Gore high and dry in 2000 and just compare the Republican machinery which worked during the same period. Al Gore paid a high price for his association with the Democratic party which remained silent during the recounting days of Dec. 2000.       Feb 12 12:12 PM
    • Apple: On an Innovation Treadmill [view article]
      Seriously- What a punch! Please read Daniel's analysis on Apple's growth. We are not discussing Bill Gates (or) Google (or) Al Gore. I have my comments for Mr. Loser at (seekingalpha.com/artic...). Facts and numbers speak louder than words.

      Coming to your point, Apple and Google are both scrambling for growth in coming years. Google's core IP is Search technology and they are better off doing that and making money. Google will not power the universe with super-duper computer, lest developing an Operating System. Yahoo's core strength is web portal and they do it well. But the analysts always compare Yahoo and Google and managed to drive down Yahoo's stock price. There are areas where Yahoo excels and Google has faltered and vice-versa. Coming back to Daniel's analysis - can Apple grow? My target price for Apple is below $90 by end of 2008 - Seriously.       Feb 11 03:47 PM
    • Apple: On an Innovation Treadmill [view article]
      Excellent analysis by Daniel. I wish analysts really poke deeper into overhyped stocks and companies like Apple. Of course Apple fanatics cannot digest such analysis. Most of the commentators forget a fundamental fact about Apple. Apple is a carefully crafted and built company piloted by Jobs. Similar fate awaited Dell and Sony recently. Jobs decides the strategy and how to execute everything. Hence the entire foundation of a company is hinging on a single individual who has an aversion towards building an ecosystem around Apple products. You have to compare this strategy against Microsoft which has built a strong channel partnership and ecosystem around Windows software. Apple fans can hate Microsoft, but the fact of the matter is that the entire IT infrastructure in the world predominantly runs on Windows ecosystem and there is no way that Apple can capture even 50% of this market. Apple is digging deeper to innovate the mobile phone and home video segments, which has good growth potential in developing countries like India and China. But Steve Jobs' aversion to channel partners will slow the growth momentm. Instead Jobs wants to price his products at premium and maintain Apple's margins. Which is a better strategy? - having an open ecosystem with unlimited growth potential coming from community developers and channel partners or selling Rolls Royce to few Kings? A classic flaw of Steve Jobs is to tie up with AT&T for five years - he could have sold iPhones to atleast three carriers in US. Where is the 10 millionth iPhone? Feb 11 12:23 PM
    • The Inconvenient Truth About Current TV's $100 Million IPO [view article]
      The inconvenient truth about Al Gore is that "He can run, but cannot hide". The truth is that he is not "Electable" and he knew this fact in 2000. Anyone associated with Bill Clinton will have a tough time to run (anything) and Hillary is going to learn this truth very soon. Gore has no administrative experience, lest managing any big enterprise. The Vice-President's job requires no big skills and there is no real work. Gore's next foray into "Inconvenient Truth" was half truthful - nothing spectacular. Nobel Peace Prize is again flawed - the greatest apostle of peace was Mahatma Gandhi who inspired Martin Luther King and other leaders. Gandhi was never awarded the Peace Prize. In summary, Al Gore is a big bundle of HYPE and all his associations will be the same. It would have been good if Al Gore ran again for President's post and lost. Good analysis Tom. Jan 29 04:10 PM
    • Netflix: 2008 Outlook [view article]
      Good analysis by Dan. I wish to point out that though Netflix and Blockbuster fall under Movie rental domain, their distribution models are totally different. This scenario is similar to comparing Amazon (for just books and media) with Barnes & Noble. The distribution channel plays a very important role for Netflix and their Wow factor has been "No Late Fees". Reed Hastings' trump card was avoiding late fees and ability to keep DVDs as long as you want. Blockbuster literally pulled the rug under Netlix when they eliminated late fees in 2006. Ever since this change happened, Netflix has been losing customers. There is nothing unique about Netflix anymore. I have used both services for sometime and have stopped Netflix now. The main attraction with Blockbuster is that I can get DVDs via mail and can return the media to a nearby store and get another one for free. What more can one ask for? The huge number of Blockbuster stores around the country is a big advantage for them and attracts significant foot traffic into these stores. Netflix cannot match Blockbuster's reach with just online distribution. The planned release of LG Set Top Box for Netflix movie distribution will fail because of "Set Top Box Fatigue" among consumers. I don't want another stupid box in my living room rack with wires running around. 2008 will be a tough year for Netflix - there is nothing unique about their business model and I can get the same service with a wider selection at Blockbuster+mail-in DVD and Hollywood stores. Is Netflix a prime target for takeover? Look out for Jeff Bezos in 2008. Jan 29 03:25 PM
    • Report: Apple Projects Lowering Its FQ2 iPhone Shipments [view article]
      Strategy Analytics in their report on 2007 mobile hand set numbers noted that global mobile handset growth will slow down in 2008. The worst hit models will be the premium category which comprises of iPhone. In a recession year in US, it will be tough for consumers to spend $300 on an iPhone and get locked down with a lousy service provider like AT&T. Apple can barely scratch their 10 million target if the price of iPhone is reduced below $150 and alternate carriers are allowed. Steve Jobs knew after one month of iPhone launch that 10 million target was pretty foolish. Look at the global handset numbers for 2007 from Nokia, Motorola, LG, Samsung, Sony and RIM - these vendors have phones starting from $50 going upto $1000 and they can sell 25 million in a single quarter. Moreover these vendors sell phones all over the globe. The expected hype in UK for iPhone has been bad and the numbers are also below target. Let's wait and watch for 10 millionth iPhone delivery. Jan 25 03:03 PM
    • Apple Is Still Executing [view article]
      The author is forgetting the fact that 2008 is beginning of a recession and how many people out of 38.4 million who visited Apple stores last quarter carried a MacBook. Will the same number visit the stores this quarter to buy the new Air or MacBook? Why will someone shell out $1800 or $1200 to buy a new Macbook when you can get a much powerful and decent Windows laptop from HP, Toshiba, Dell and Sony for less than $900? Apple can milk consumers when economy is brighter but otherwise their wallets remained closed. The days of iPod growth are over worlwide since there are much cheaper and good MP3 players in the market that can play non-DRM and non-iTunes songs. By end of 1Q 2008, Apple stock should close below $110 or even $100. Jan 24 03:22 PM
    • Apple Should Increasingly Dominate Key CE Markets [view article]
      What's wrong with these analysts when crunching numbers from Apple? Look at mobile phone predictions that Apple will become #1 player in 2008 or 2009. Is Barak living in Neverland? Look at technology innovations from all mobile handset vendors - Nokia, Samsung, LG and Motorola. Even if iPhone is sold for $ 50 for the next 2 years, Apple cannot become #1 in the world. The global numbers simply don't match. Also MP3 players market is cooling off as seen from actual Apple results and days of iPod+iTunes attachment will start decling very quickly in 2008. Take a look at collections of non-DRAM stuff at Amazon, Napster, Zune and other European portals. Who needs iTunes catalog for 99 cents? Also iTunes songs cannot be played in other music players. iTunes movie streaming to AppleTV will also fail since consumers don't need another stupid $200 box in their living room. Also Macbook Air for $1800 in a period of recession - dream on... I will revisit Barak prediction list in Jan 2008 when Apple stock will be below $100 for sure. Jan 23 09:00 AM
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