PAD's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/140608/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/164416-commercial-mortgage-reit-ipos-coming-up-short?source=feed#comment-713826 713826
i've read the S-1's of CLNY and STWD and it looks like they take 20% profits above a stated threshold (i think CLNY's was 8% ROE for the opco). Doesn't seem like that high a fee to pay to invest alongside the private equity folks managing the opco to me.

I haven't done enough work on these new REIT ipo's to make any bold claims but i will offer one observation: This is the most hated sub-sector out there.

Every blog and news source out there hates these new REIT ipo's and they all mention the same things: Blind trust with no track record (not true for CLNY, whose mgt team led the hugely profitable buying from RTC 20 years ago), no dividends (yet), private equity selling to common/retail holders (even though pvt eq not cashing out a penny of the proceeds) and the "wave of IPO's" as a sure sign of a top just like dot-com (no comparison on any book value or other valuation metric).

And finally, the sell-side initiations by the bankers, i mean research analysts, have also been fairly muted (short 5-6 page initiations, not bullish at all).

I'm a buyer of anything this hated. Portfolio strategy--small positions in 4-5 names. Time will tell.]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 10:42:39 -0400
i've read the S-1's of CLNY and STWD and it looks like they take 20% profits above a stated threshold (i think CLNY's was 8% ROE for the opco). Doesn't seem like that high a fee to pay to invest alongside the private equity folks managing the opco to me.

I haven't done enough work on these new REIT ipo's to make any bold claims but i will offer one observation: This is the most hated sub-sector out there.

Every blog and news source out there hates these new REIT ipo's and they all mention the same things: Blind trust with no track record (not true for CLNY, whose mgt team led the hugely profitable buying from RTC 20 years ago), no dividends (yet), private equity selling to common/retail holders (even though pvt eq not cashing out a penny of the proceeds) and the "wave of IPO's" as a sure sign of a top just like dot-com (no comparison on any book value or other valuation metric).

And finally, the sell-side initiations by the bankers, i mean research analysts, have also been fairly muted (short 5-6 page initiations, not bullish at all).

I'm a buyer of anything this hated. Portfolio strategy--small positions in 4-5 names. Time will tell.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157102-starwood-ipo-benefits-underwriters-while-investors-take-losses?source=feed#comment-636996 636996
no way, what next? the sun is going to come up tomorrow? water is wet?

6% is standard for non-secondary equity issuance, ditto for ongoing O&M expenses]]> Wed, 19 Aug 2009 15:20:01 -0400
no way, what next? the sun is going to come up tomorrow? water is wet?

6% is standard for non-secondary equity issuance, ditto for ongoing O&M expenses]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97042-factset-a-financial-stock-holding-up-well?source=feed#comment-268610 268610 Yet analysts are expecting 15% revenue growth in 2009 and 13% in 2010? (this is from FDS estimates function on fds)

i think not. i'm short.
]]> Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:11:59 -0400 Yet analysts are expecting 15% revenue growth in 2009 and 13% in 2010? (this is from FDS estimates function on fds)

i think not. i'm short.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91931-energy-transfer-partners-looks-increasingly-interesting?source=feed#comment-235630 235630
and what kind of research is this line:

"the other half (of profit) comes from sources subject to the vagaries of the natural gas market." huh? what does that mean?

To the editors of Seeking Alpha-- do you let anybody publish articles? i used to come to this site and get insightful analysis about stocks for my personal account. detailed analysis has been replaced by these fluff pieces that look like something my summer intern (undergrad) writes. ]]> Thu, 21 Aug 2008 11:11:53 -0400
and what kind of research is this line:

"the other half (of profit) comes from sources subject to the vagaries of the natural gas market." huh? what does that mean?

To the editors of Seeking Alpha-- do you let anybody publish articles? i used to come to this site and get insightful analysis about stocks for my personal account. detailed analysis has been replaced by these fluff pieces that look like something my summer intern (undergrad) writes. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91444-magazine-covers-as-contrarian-indicators?source=feed#comment-233166 233166
Being on the cover of Business Week is the kiss of death.

I wish i could remember the timing of Jeff Skillings cover (he had two actually) on BW versus the company blowing up.

]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 11:57:27 -0400
Being on the cover of Business Week is the kiss of death.

I wish i could remember the timing of Jeff Skillings cover (he had two actually) on BW versus the company blowing up.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88837-time-to-short-the-utilities?source=feed#comment-225166 225166
And every single month along the way i read the exact same articles saying utilities had to under-perform because rates were rising. And every single one of those articles was wrong.

Maybe the technical analysis angle is correct, i just don't follow that stuff.

Best of luck to everybody]]> Thu, 07 Aug 2008 11:51:48 -0400
And every single month along the way i read the exact same articles saying utilities had to under-perform because rates were rising. And every single one of those articles was wrong.

Maybe the technical analysis angle is correct, i just don't follow that stuff.

Best of luck to everybody]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88507-investing-in-infrastructure?source=feed#comment-220626 220626 Fri, 01 Aug 2008 16:56:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85055-lehman-the-end-game?source=feed#comment-206081 206081 Tue, 15 Jul 2008 12:04:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77756-doug-kass-s-killer-shorts-barron-s?source=feed#comment-170053 170053
I will take Doug Kass over Alan Abelson 7 days/week, 52/weeks a year. ]]> Mon, 19 May 2008 12:14:46 -0400
I will take Doug Kass over Alan Abelson 7 days/week, 52/weeks a year. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76811-geothermal-energy-sources-101?source=feed#comment-166582 166582 Mon, 12 May 2008 22:22:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75598-2008-berkshire-hathaway-shareholder-meeting-detailed-notes?source=feed#comment-161951 161951 Mon, 05 May 2008 09:14:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71276-is-kinder-morgan-just-a-fee-trick?source=feed#comment-146396 146396 Mon, 07 Apr 2008 11:23:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/69866-googles-killer-app-for-investors-consultants-and-journalists?source=feed#comment-146392 146392 I would not wanna be a TSCM shareholder if you guys keep this up. ]]> Mon, 07 Apr 2008 11:19:27 -0400 I would not wanna be a TSCM shareholder if you guys keep this up. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70368-meredith-whitney-threatens-severe-deflation-for-your-portfolio?source=feed#comment-133052 133052
Seeking Alpha should hire somebody who knows something about financials to screen the articles like this one before they go up on the site. ]]> Fri, 28 Mar 2008 12:44:54 -0400
Seeking Alpha should hire somebody who knows something about financials to screen the articles like this one before they go up on the site. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70239-buy-side-still-loves-some-sell-side-research?source=feed#comment-132602 132602
IPO allocations and concert/sporting event tickets. other than that, they are bunch of cockroaches and should be treated accordingly.]]> Thu, 27 Mar 2008 16:11:07 -0400
IPO allocations and concert/sporting event tickets. other than that, they are bunch of cockroaches and should be treated accordingly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70040-is-the-new-generation-of-financial-content-an-opportunity-or-threat-for-investor-relations?source=feed#comment-131854 131854 Wed, 26 Mar 2008 12:19:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/68558-wellpoint-falls-hard-valuation-looks-compelling?source=feed#comment-126540 126540 Fri, 14 Mar 2008 12:05:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/66182-leading-hedge-funds-best-ideas-for-2008?source=feed#comment-120200 120200
the "Top holdings owned by 15 value hedge funds, ranked by # of funds with the same position" included Google

and the "Top two holdings from each of 10 value hedge funds listed below" included Apple

???

wow, those are some great VALUE funds.

is it Bizarro World today or do those seem like GROWTH picks to anybody else?
]]> Thu, 28 Feb 2008 11:24:48 -0500
the "Top holdings owned by 15 value hedge funds, ranked by # of funds with the same position" included Google

and the "Top two holdings from each of 10 value hedge funds listed below" included Apple

???

wow, those are some great VALUE funds.

is it Bizarro World today or do those seem like GROWTH picks to anybody else?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/66100-ge-nuclear-growth-galore?source=feed#comment-119240 119240
$90 billion?!?!? puh-leeze!]]> Tue, 26 Feb 2008 11:10:12 -0500
$90 billion?!?!? puh-leeze!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/65781-a-look-inside-t-boone-pickens-portfolio?source=feed#comment-118827 118827 CLNE)? T. Boone himself owns 46% of the company! he's basically propping up his own p/a at the expense of his hedge fund investors.

that being said i don't think he was using his cnbc appearance as a trading opportunity. he is worth way way too much $$$ to care about making a few bucks off a tv appearance.

his long-term predictions of even a few months ago have been absolutely spot-on. his call on the coal producers 2 years ago has been another home run. Go T. Boone! i wish my 401k was in his fund.
]]> Mon, 25 Feb 2008 13:41:15 -0500 CLNE)? T. Boone himself owns 46% of the company! he's basically propping up his own p/a at the expense of his hedge fund investors.

that being said i don't think he was using his cnbc appearance as a trading opportunity. he is worth way way too much $$$ to care about making a few bucks off a tv appearance.

his long-term predictions of even a few months ago have been absolutely spot-on. his call on the coal producers 2 years ago has been another home run. Go T. Boone! i wish my 401k was in his fund.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/60310-the-new-coal-etf-not-so-fast?source=feed#comment-110731 110731
They do, however, have an edge in going "green" as they supply natural gas to all the new ethanol plants going up all over the midwest. These plants require about 100,000 BTUs of natural gas to produce 2.8 gallons of ethanol and drive higher demand for KMPs natural gas network.

Carbon capture will eventually come from the GEs, the Bechtels and the Shaw Groups of the world but good luck trying to guess the timing.

Also, the Rockies Express should drive higher KMP dividends/distribution... for years to come. ]]> Wed, 16 Jan 2008 08:57:10 -0500
They do, however, have an edge in going "green" as they supply natural gas to all the new ethanol plants going up all over the midwest. These plants require about 100,000 BTUs of natural gas to produce 2.8 gallons of ethanol and drive higher demand for KMPs natural gas network.

Carbon capture will eventually come from the GEs, the Bechtels and the Shaw Groups of the world but good luck trying to guess the timing.

Also, the Rockies Express should drive higher KMP dividends/distribution... for years to come. ]]>