Mr. Cat

Mr. Cat
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  • Why BlackBerry Is Such An Awesome Stock  [View article]
    @Zack 800,
    base on CFO's figures,i estimate that in the coming Q4 16 which will be the first full quarter sale for PRIV,with multiples of selling spots, many more carriers, BB can easily sell 1,000,000 phones with ASP reaching >$400.
    and that means, the hardware revenue alone for Q4 will be >$400mil.
    "typing from my PRIV."
    Dec 21, 2015. 10:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Earnings: Priv Fails To Deliver  [View article]
    hi Anton,
    i gave you my "like" the first time after reading hundreds of your comments and article because i also using Priv for almost one month and i also think that it is the best phone i ever have base one its productivity and security.
    Dec 19, 2015. 07:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors tips cautious approach to South Korea  [View news story]

    "Yes, and he dumped the same amount for many months prior to that in 2015.
    If he continues at this rate he will have dumped all his shares by the end of Q1 2016."

    According to what I got from E*Trade, the shares dumped by JB for the last 2 years were all he obtained by exercise of his stock options with exercise price @$6.63 which is sort of his income from being the CTO of Tesla for more than a decade.

    How you have derived that he would have dumped all his shares by end of Q1 2016, which is just a few months from now?
    How come you didn't mention that E. Musk had spent $20 mil. in August 2015 on acquiring tesla's stock?
    Nov 19, 2015. 10:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Something Is Rotten In The State Of Denmark  [View article]
    Dear Paulo,
    "And as it turns out, according to a Minister of Finance, it ain't exactly legal."
    Your 3rd bullet point in the beginning of your article suggested that tesla is doing something illegal ('ain't exactly illegal').
    While looking at what the Minister of Finance said as cited by you is "and it appears that there is a circumvention of the rules we have for tax exemption on electric cars, said Karsten Lauritzen.". The subject words used by the Minister to describe the act is 'circumvention of the rule' which is an act within the scope of legal or before it becomes illegal. Further, it is officially clarified by tesla that it's not done by them.
    Your interpretation on news on tesla has gone too far and biased.
    I stopped reading after I spotted this misinterpretation. I found that I usually can't finish reading your whole article on tesla because every time I found misinterpretation, misinformation and biased view just like this one.

    Nov 12, 2015. 09:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SolarCity And The Running Of The Lemmings  [View article]
    Dear EnergyPP

    Similar to you, I love solar. But the valuation scared me.

    I had been long on scty for several ocassions, going in and out, during the last 2 years. But I have scty on my watch list after exiting my long position about half year ago when it was around 59 for the same reasons listed out by you in particular nos. 3, 4, 6 and 9. I can add two more reason to yours which are:

    12. the ever forceful defence/fight back by the utilities companies concerning the net metering.
    13. Can scty keep the growth rate as guided so that they will have 1 million customers by 2018? (their share price was then partially priced as if they could)

    Things have evolved worse than I have imagined. Even at the current price ($26), most of my concerns remain concerns.

    I plan to go back. Question is when.
    Nov 12, 2015. 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BlackBerry's Priv Similar To Apple's 1997-2007 Comeback?  [View article]
    Hi Ella,

    ''The Priv may end up being one of the best versions of Android, but in no way should it be considered productive. ''

    I love BlackBerry. I have been using BlackBerry passport for nearly a year. Before that it's a Z30. I really enjoy the smoothness and productivity these 2 phones are offering. However, I haven't seen anyone I know is using a BlackBerry 10 smartphone and seen less than 3 people on the street holding a passport for the whole of last year.
    We BlackBerry long may better look around more often instead of sticking to the good old days and BlackBerry 's excel technology. BlackBerry has already given enough tries on its own OS which I think is superior. Unfortunately, it fails to get the traction among most people on the main street, the CEO has admitted that and he has turned his head right into this reality and decided that they better tried out something else before it's too late.

    I will follow John Chen 's footsteps and move to the Priv once it's available in shop so that I can get some of the apps that I think I better have in connection to my car and my online broker.
    I will get back to you after I tried out the Priv in particular the point of productivity.

    Disclosure : long BlackBerry since Nov 2013
    Nov 11, 2015. 08:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Shorting Tesla Now  [View article]

    Well said.
    Nov 5, 2015. 06:00 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Manages To Lose $19,810 Per Car Sold  [View article]
    Dear Stephen,

    "......when they open the order lines, the world will be shocked at just how many people plunk down money for a Model 3"

    I am determined to place my order.
    Nov 4, 2015. 02:00 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Musk: Tesla could start China production in 2 years  [View news story]
    Dear robiniv、
    ““surfer, one more thing cause it's extremely important
    About the money to build a factory (i read you expect it to be a full blown assembly plant) you say "Existing sales or other funding such as stock offering or bond offering".····”

    I think I can add a little colour on the discussion between you and surfer on your extremely important thing.
    For now, even after the complaint lodged by president Obama to Chairman Xi it is still pretty unlikely that tesla would be allowed to build her factory in China on its own without partnering a local co. But I believe everyone here would agree with me that it is not difficult for tesla to find willing Chinese partner who thought it will glorify their brand and status among other local brand competitors. The real issue for tesla is how to find a capable partner but not someone with deep enough pocket. The most commonly seen JV pattern in China is for the Chinese party to provide the land, factory and even capital sometimes depending on how much they want the technology. So, that is to say, if what Elon Musk was saying is to set up an assembly facilities like they've in Netherlands, what tesla will need to do is to bring their used production line and tools to China and that is. Just like what VW, F and GM did decades ago.
    Unlike building another factory in usa or Europe, I don't think tesla will need another round of offering just to set up a JV for a factory in China to do the assembly work.
    Oct 23, 2015. 10:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Investors Are Dealing With A Crisis Of Faith  [View article]
    Dear Peter、
    “Regarding the price of Model X, I already gave you an answer, from the man who knows better than any analyst or SA pontificator.”
    I agree with you and tend to think that spending $132000 on a cool functional family car is just a piece of cake for wealthy family in USA and other countries.
    My guess on the reason why tesla has yet to announce the prices of the lower versions down the line of X is because they are aiming to milk as many as possible the volume of the Signature edition and the 90D version among the already paid reservations. The longer the time tesla rolls their lower version of X out the better.
    What's more, tesla already announced that they need 8-12 months to clear their reservations which is in the region of 25000. That means to me the production rate for the X will be around 2000 to 2500 per month vs 4000 of S per month (based on the the last announcement of Q2 delivery figure). The estimated date of delivery of S by tesla is December if you order it today. So, till now, the proposition that orders of S is drying up or would be eaten by X is definitely proven to be wrong. Therefore, I think the chance of meeting their guidance of delivery for 2015 is good and likely to achieve it with increased revenue
    Oct 7, 2015. 09:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla's Q3 Delivery Number Was Disappointing  [View article]
    It is not an easy exercise to get the figures correct from scattered information on various forums.
    Having that said, I have to say that you may be right because a friend of mine who is in Hong Kong, got ordered a 85D in May -June this year has been informed by tesla about 2 weeks ago (before Model X launch) that the delivery date for him will be postponed to December from November. The postponement shows that the backlog is still there. Everyone concerned about tesla's results should bear in mind that there is time gap from the demands, the production and delivery. The gap is more significant for international buyers.
    Oct 2, 2015. 08:18 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla finally launches SUV  [View news story]
    @K. Murray,

    Model X is indeed an excellent full size 7 seaters cross over for family who can afford or willing to pay for it. It may just not for yours. By the way, everybody knows the Group that Porsche belong cheated!
    Oct 1, 2015. 09:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: A Realistic Look At The Model 3  [View article]
    @Sir F、
    “If you spend ~5 mins contrasting these points, I think you will come to the conclusion that the gross margin profile here cannot support a $30k vehicle (let alone at Porsche's margins).''
    Before you said things like this, have you done the maths yourself ever?
    I did it when tesla declared to offer their Roadster owner a new battery pack 3.0, a 70KW battery, for $29000 all inclusive. My result shows that after putting aside the costs of battery, there will be enough buffer for building a model 3 for selling at $35000 with decent margin in 2017, result is similar to author of this article and Randy. I don't think I need to show my calculations here again.
    Those figures of costing in making battery nowadays are no secret at all. Anyone passing maths exams in grade 5-6 can do the maths right easily. With some realistic assumptions like 5-8% efficiency improvement per annum, not less than 30% reduction in costs achieved by economy of scale by the Gigafactory, 20% smaller of model 3, etc. etc. one will derive their figures of battery costs likely to be used for model 3 in 2017-8. There is really no need to rely on any professional expert report to get the answer.
    One more question for anyone interested in auto industry to think:, is it possible for traditional auto manufacturer to improve their ICE efficiency at the rate of 5% per annum? I don't have the answer myself. But my common sense tells me it's not possible except by cheating!
    Going back to Porsche margin, they enjoy the high margin for superior performance but not lower cost of production. These are also the same reasons tesla is going to have similar or even higher level of margin. Can anyone tell why model S is outselling Porsche's panorama? It's not because of higher level of luxury, more saving of gas, or the brand. It is because of better performance and practicality which will also the elements that model 3 is going to excel.
    Sep 30, 2015. 11:10 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Motors trades higher after Model X event  [View news story]
    @ Biological、

    “You have an event and stock jumps?.......”

    The event is launching X、a new product of a co. which will drive the cash flow and profit up if it is widely perceived to a good one. Thus, the event, the cash flow and the profits correlate to each other. Isn't it the investment lesson #1?
    Sep 30, 2015. 08:20 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla finally launches SUV  [View news story]
    With such resistible beast rolling out and 25,000 orders on hand, the reason why Tesla is scaling down the guidance from 55,000 to 50,000 - 55,000 for 2015 is so obvious even for no brainer: supply constraint.
    Sep 30, 2015. 04:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment