sorgmot

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    • Wed Jul 9th 19:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Always Precarious Dollar (and Its Impact on Gold)
      The index discussed above falls for 40 years and ends at 30 in 2048.

      Commodities triple in US $ terms by then. The bear takes over the US stock and bond markets.


      Study England history fo the 1930 to 1980 period for the model.



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    • Sat Jun 14th 17:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Interesting Times at the Short End of the Yield Curve
      Governments and their employees want to reward there supporters and employees. They are happy to grind the general public into ruin in the process.

      Thanks to past actions and policies, the US Federal Government owes foreign nationals more than the wealth of the USA nation. That is where England was in 1932 when the pound was worth $5.00.

      Now, a financier would say lets cut a deal. We'll cut the value of our currency in half against yours. We will keep our interest rates low and cut our government spending. Lower interest rates and lower government spending will help us import from you and a lower value on the US$ in foreign currencies will make USA exports cheaper for you to use in raising your living standards. And, thanks for forgiving half our debt.

      But the legions and legions of US Government paid economists are in line for layoff under the financier's plan and the Government would never hire a financier.

      So now we in the USA will see saw our way up and down in interest rates as the upswings collapse the USA economy and the down swings collapse the US$'s buying power.
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    • Sat Jun 14th 15:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Week in Review: Dollar's Biggest Advance Vs. Euro in 3 Years
      No government in human history has ever survived over a few hundred years.

      Rome had the best location and still fell apart.

      Governors are driven by greed.

      Greed causes monopolies and cartels to be supported by governments.

      As Adam Smith and David Hume pointed out these actions impoverish the nation and all but a few of its citizens.

      As the wealth of the general citizens falls due to actions of politics, they dwindle in number and leave.

      The end of the nation is implosion and financial collapse.

      Other nations take over.
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    • Sat Jun 14th 12:25 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mortgage Rates Fly Higher
      Thanks for these graphs.

      One could argue that long mortgage rates are up to force down the size of mortgages placed on homes which in turn forces down the home prices. Banks are looking at more and more mortgage defaults and want to make the loan back fast and force down its total value.

      However, interest rates are exploding upward on 5 year US Government notes too. One could claim that US Government debt rates are pushing all US debt rates for all maturities up.

      And what is pushing US Government debt interest rates up? Lots of people who own them want out of them and sell them at lower and lower prices to reach their goals. The world is awash in US Dollar denominated debt and the only way to sell it is to take lower and lower prices and that moves yields higher and higher.

      If this latter explanation is correct,the USA has lost the ability to set its interest rates. Its creditors have taken that job over.
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    • Wed Jun 11th 09:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (6/10/08)
      Thanks for the charts. They are very useful in predicting mining company profits, all else being equal. The gold chart shows that that metal was being sold for $ 650 per oz. in the summer of 2007 and is now selling for $ 900 per oz. $ 250 per oz. more to the bottom line.

      The Barrick president says the cost is $400 per oz. so profits should double in 2008 versus 2007. Perhaps, the stock value will double too.

      See your investment adviser and always diversify your portfolio. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock shares.
      View article »
    • Tue Jun 10th 10:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why the Discrepancy Between Oil and Gold?
      Gold bullion in US $ per ounce and the US $ share prices of common stocks of gold mining companies are subject to at least 3 cycles of differing periodicity. The seasonal cycle, the business cycle in the USA, and the long or multi decade liquidity or asset valuation cycle.

      The seasonal cycle for gold and gold stocks in US $ runs up from the end of September to the following April and then goes level or sags until the next September..

      The business cycle upswing in US $ for gold should start in late 2008 and run through 2009, and 2010 before pausing for 2 or three years.

      The long, multi decade cycle, is currently in the collapsing liquidity phase (higher interest rates and lower unit prices for stocks, bonds, real estate, and even at some point commodity prices). Liquidity peaked in 2000 with high stock prices and has been falling ever since. It is now 1938 and commodities are recovering from there 1932 lows.

      If the US $ keeps falling against foreign currencies which it will since the US is now the 1938 Brittan and Euro-Asia is now the 1938 USA, then commodities should rise as the US $ falls. Or one could buy Euro-Asia currencies. Euro-Asian stocks, bonds, real estate will fall in terms of their own currencies but not commodities which are in short supply.

      Good luck.
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    • Sun Jun 8th 16:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is It Safe to Take a Dip in the Gold Pool Again?
      We are long gold stocks and also copper stocks. We believe there will be a move to cartel formation in those industries. We also believe that this is the right part of the business cycle to be long them to mid 2010.

      We are short financial stocks and some electronics stocks until late August 2008.

      We fit our investments to the business cycle which we think is a repeating process. Perhaps you do too since we seam to agree.

      These are not recommendations. See your investment adviser before making investment decisions.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 8th 16:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Gold’s Quotient Rising?
      Gold and gold stocks are doing what they usually do at this stage in the business cycle. Gold goes up in US $ as the USA recession progresses. Based on past data we look for the USA recession to drag on through 2008 and 2009. That means upward price movement in gold/$ to the end of 2009.

      Stocks of gold mining companies like to go up from Oct of one year to April of the next on and then drift down to the next October. Stock price increases tend to rise in larger percentages than do the gold metal prices.
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    • Sun Jun 8th 12:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Household Assets Decreasing While Liabilities Are Increasing
      There is a good chance that house prices will fall in half. That would put the total amount owed on houses at the value of all houses and erase house wealth in the USA. That would leave USA people with their credit card debt against their pension assets. They could then be truly pennyless after working all their lives and using all their savings to support a truly worthless government.
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    • Sun Jun 8th 11:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Economic Report Summary: Huge Jump in Unemployment
      Where does the ISM get its numbers? In CT and RI we see many manufactureing sites closed down since 2002 and still empty in 2008.

      USA manufactureing has been ridden into the dust by union cartels, government wage laws, environmental regulations, and class action litegation.

      Always look at causes and consequences.

      Did anyone ever vote to end manufactiring in the USA?
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 8th 11:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investors at Risk of Losing Everything
      Star Wars had the dark side of the force.

      The USA has the short side of the market.

      Why not look there in times like these.

      We have a 30 stock short portfolio on out site. It is illustrative and not recomented. Seek the advice of your investment advisor. It has a start date and end date which we believee to be in ture with the business cycle in the USA.

      We believe that one will have to use shorts and longs in the comming years.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 8th 10:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Black Gold or Yellow Gold?
      A really great report Michael.

      It demonstrates why Blogs will take information distribution away form news papers who are channeled into the "right thing to say" for fear of losing Government Ads revenue and Government free news releasee propaganda of all sorts.

      The internet is awsome in many many ways. Treasure it. Remember its beginning bywords "There is no here, there is no there, there is no past, there is no future, everything is here now."

      The government is the problem and not the solution. Why doesn't it cut its payroll and the the crushing load it places on the USA economy when that economy sags?
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    • Sun Jun 8th 10:04 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Credit Contagion and the Domino Effect
      The graph is interesting. The rest is conjectire presented in a way so as to prevent preditor law suits. Everyone writes that way now.

      Elliott Wave International has put out some books forecasting the future paths (or trax) of major USA market indecies.

      Let us echo their thoughts.

      A giant A B C correction wave began in 2000. So far, an A B pattern has taken place and a downward C leg is now anticipated to the end of 2009. It should take the S&P 500 below its 2002 low.

      Interest rates and inflation rates will rise until 2013. Hose prices will continue to fall to 2013 along with real estate and bonds..

      The USA is in a soccer game and has just lost control of the ball (US $ value and interest rates) to the Euro-Assian team.

      Alway remember that stock averages are alway cooked upward as the old dwarf stars are replaced bv the bright new expanding star companies.
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    • Fri Jun 6th 12:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bill Gross: Understated Inflation Means Commodities, Emerging Markets Should Outperform
      "By the rude bridge that arched the flood, here the embattled farmer stood and fired the shot heard round the world."

      Concord, Mass. USA 1776.

      Many men with many rifles ended royal governments around the world and replaced them with massively costly and totally overbearing elected governments throughout the 18 and 19 hundreds.

      The consequences are upon mankind as the 21st century begins.
      The costs of running governments which do nothing but miss allocate resources for wars and roads and space shots and money printing and and set up a multitude of regulations and set up cartels and etc are now reducing real per capita wealth even as most countries chop their populations by one method or another. One child laws in China, abortion in the USA for examples.

      The USA, led by lawyers who now control the three branches of its governments from town to federal level and who enrich themselves by taking money from the corporations they ease into monopoly power positions with permit power and other means.

      Hey, but the good news is that bad governments always crash and burn while the poor inherit the earth and plod on. The western Roman empire crashed and never rose again while a new religion arose. The eastern Roman empire crashed and a new religion arose. The British empire crashed in World War I. The Russian and Germain governments spent the 1900's crashing and burning over and over.

      The individual is alway self educated and will learn what works. Thanks to Bill Gross and others who let the real situation be known.
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    • Fri Jun 6th 10:31 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Another Fed-Induced Bubble?
      Yes, The Fed is and always has been and always will be (until its dissolution) in the bubble and bust business. The Fed runs the USA banking cartel. Please read Wealth of Nations to see what Adam Smith had to say about the reduction in the wealth of a nation when its government allows cartels to exist and ever dominate the nations economy. David Hume is another good source on the subject.
      View article »
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