sorgmot

Commodity Outlook Breeds Skepticism - Except, Of Course, For Gold

Hypothesis: 2009 is 1939 all over again. The future near term is the 1940's sans World War III.

In the early 1930's, the DJIA took a very large down leg to 1933 which was followed by progressively higher up legs to 2000.

In the early 2000's, the DJIA took medium down leg while the NASD tool a very large down leg from 5000 to 1000.

Conclusion: The DJIA is full of government protected monopoles and Cartel members while the NASD is full fo companies that face real competitions and real market forces.

Some interesting sidelights:

1. Gold took off like a shot in 2000 and rose 3 times in value to 2008.

2, The long downward trends in USA bond interest rates that started in 1980 ended in 2002.

3. The US $ began falling against other currencies in the 2000 to 2008 years.

4. The USA money supply and total debt outstanding exploded upward from 2000 to 2008 accompanied by an unbelievable growth of the debt to equity ratio.

5. USA and international real estate and stock and non government debt markets around the world fell in amounts up to 60% in 2008.

6. Due to heavy debt loads on assets built up over the years from 1980 through 2007 aggregate equity of persons and companies went negative in 2008.

7. Everyone wants to thank the USA federal reserve for the loss of all net equity on planet earth weil in advance of 12/21/2015 as forecast by Nostradomus and mid American astronomers even before him.

Our bets are made in consequence of these facts which will impact the coming time domain.

Good luck.