sorgmot

Preserve Your Wealth with Precious Metals

Excellent presentation. You might add to gold all other consumable natural resources like oil, gas, coal, copper, silver, and rare earths.

Good Luck

Speaking of Gold...

Thank you for the very clear chart showing the upswing in US$ gold prices per once from 2000 to 2009. This is the period following the decline in US$ gold prices from 1980 to 2000 which was induced by US President Ronald Reagan starting in 1981.

He was guided and assisted in his endeavor to reduce $USA price inflation which had started in the 1960's by Milton Freidman and Paul Volker, respectively.

Those days ended in 2000 and their practices discarded by current USA politicians of all parties and stripes.

Consequently, the USA future in 2009 holds the post Reagan trend of money and debt explosion started under Clinton and continued under Bush II.

The next upswing in USA money supply will occupy in the years 2009 through 2014, As was true from 2000 to 2008, the US$ will fall against foreign currencies and gold. The USA economy will continue to stagnate and USA Government debt will increase greatly as in 4 or 5 times.

It will look like the one from 2002 through 2007. There will be a correction in 2015.

The 2002 upswing traversed from $300's to $900's per ounce and the one coming next could traverse from the $900's to $2700's

President Reagan is gone as is Milton Freidman and only Paul Volker remains. In their absence Democrats and Rupublicans alike have built faulty government structures on borrowing while destroying the US$ values of USA real estate, USA stocks,, USA bonds and USA private sector wages asset as the USA debt load explodes.

There is a good possibility the USA government will once again confiscate gold in the next 5 years.

Some things in the USA are so powerfully destructive to the well being of its citizens as to guarantee its collapse.

Good luck

Precious Metals’ Gleam Is Not Tarnished: When Will They Finally Bottom?

The question is, can gold's value per oz in US$ go up in a collapsing USA economy? The answer is yes. The same answer holds for silver and copper and all of the commodities.

Nancy P of Californie is the poster child of USA wealth destruction. She can impoverish the non government workers who create wealth while lavishing tax money at the feet of state workers who waste wealth and destroy the living standards standards of all but thereselves.

Gold is good in all countries while the US$ falls against other currencies.

Market Outlook: Bulls Losing Momentum?

The 3P's (pretty pitch persons) on the tube and elsewhere want you to risk your money to their benefit.

You need to worry about the persons all around the world who want to pitch the US$'s they hold out their windows.

They are now and they will continue to in 2009 and 2010.

They will replace US$'s held as reserves with lower taxes, and crude oil, gold, silver, copper, p metals and other standand commodities as their new reserves.

Yes, all long shelf life commodities are really money in disguise.

Good Luck.

A look at current price to earnings ratios of USA companies reveals many numbers in the 20's and 30's for companies whose future growth will be low to slow to no. P/E's should be 10 now due to no growth and high uncertainty.

Price to earnings adjustments could now take the DJIA down to 5000 in October, 2009 and 4000 in March, 2010.

Watch out. Consider these kinds of defensive investments.

Foreign companies. Commodities. Foreign currencies.


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Why This Rally Should Continue

USA common stock market indexes are in bob sled runs down the mountain. Down she goes and where she ends, no one knows.

We are looking for a steep slide in there indexes stating in June 2009 and ending in March 2010 with a bump up in November of 2009.

The mighty Casey came to Washington DC, and first came to bat in January 2007. He (she) whiffed in 2007 and whiffed again in January 2008, and whiffed yet again in January 2008. Back to the dugout went Casey. Game is over and lost.

Is the USA war in the middle east over yet? No.

Has the USA stopped loosing skilled fobs yet? No.

When will Casey return to the minors?

This Recession Is a Reset to a New Normal

This presentation is one of finest ever on this blog.

We look for patterns that repeat to help make future predictions.

Here we see the replay of the USA financial valuations of assets in the 1900 to 1970 period which is repeating in the 1970 to 2040 period. 2009 maps to 1939. just as 2000 maps to 1930. Real estate prices broke down in 1930 and fell on larger houses until 1970. Stock market prices fell from 1930 to 1960 and are now retracing that pattern from 2000 to 2030.

Yes, that USA located mansion which cost 5 million in 2005 will go to zero in 2040 based on 2005 value US dollars. Politicians, every greedy for personal power and wealth will do everything except what they should which is to let the cartels die and the internet and other new energy inventions liberate the US to a low travel and low cost of government economy.

Would it not be nice to skip the wars that enrich cartel owners and pauperize the poor from now on.

Good luck.

Bear Market Thoughts: Looks Like Another Downturn

Let's absorb other.s views and recheck out own.

We made a 56% gain in our short stocks portfolio in 2008 and we closed out too early and could have made more. Was that good or bad?

We are looking for the current DJIA rally to cap out in May 2009.

Then the DJIA begins to fall again to November 2009 and finishes below the 2008 DJIA low. This could also be wrong. For example a few more wars could spoil our plans for a rally from now to May 2009.

We are surprised by how weak the current president elect looks. Is he really the junior varsity of the Clinton machine? No new or enlightened views in his speeches or appointments. More bad news for the USA population and collapsing economy.

Good Luck

See your own investment consultant before investing.

Looking at the Market Through Slightly Bullish Lenses

We are looking for the market averages and gold to drift up some from Jan. 1,2009 to May 20, 2009 and then drop in another big leg down to perhaps 400 on the S&P 500 in Nov.2009.

The period form Jan 1 2008 to Nov. 30,2009 will set all the records for asset value losses.

The USA Federal Reserve Bank deserves all the credit. Governments and their agencies always wreck the wealth of nations by encouraging cartels and monopolies which in turn explodes the percentage of poor in their citizens.

Study Dave Hume and Adam Smith for more details about the roles of cartels and monopoliis in an economy.

To keep an even keel in times like these we recomend hugging a living and growing redwood tree and talking at a safe distance to a living buffalow in Yellowstone.

Good Luck. Ennjay Old Fathful.

Check all investment ideas with your financial advisor before acting on them.

The Economic Policies of Failure

This artical and its comments are correctly stated and to the paramount issues of these days.

To summarize one could say that contemporary elected governments transfer the wealth of the citizens to favored cartels which in turn fund the democrat and republican parties during elections by paying for media ads to the media cartel.

This appears to be the end game of the popular revolutions that started 300 to 400 years ago with the investion and distribution of the rifle. The rifle was used to end survitude. Todays mega governments and their allied privet sector cartels are set up to reserect serviture.and abject and hopeless poverty in the greatl majority ot the population governed.

This is the out come of the Keynesian design for government avtivity in the economy.

Long live Adam Smith and his Wealth of Nations.

One should rememeber that Rome rose and fell for good over a 700 year period and the year zero A. D. was the middle.

The public wins in the end because govrnments and cartels go broke.

The Chickens of Irresponsibility Come Home to Roost Under Obama's Reign

One always recognizes the worth of the orator by the questions she or he askes.

I'll take William Sheakspear who gave ansers, not questions, toe the ruling houses of his time.

"Neither a lender nor a borrower be for borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry and loan oft loses self and friend."

"There is a tide in the affairs of man which taken at the flood leads on to victory."

Bring back smaller states and tiny governments. They work toward prosperity and cooperation. 2008 states work toward stealing and war.

Good luck.

How Low Can This Market Go?

Based on the very interesting chart above, we make a low of 2000 for the DJIA in 2018 which is 1/7 th of the high in 2007. The total drop is taken in the same ratio as shown in your 1930's chart above.

The USA will have lost the reserve world currency status by 2018 and will be a hopelessly indebted nation by 2018

Our Coming Depression

Political power corrupts and absolute political corrupts absolutely.

As politicians and their colleges in governmental administrative bureaus and regulatory branches are corrupted by the cartels and monopolies they create. All governments are monopolies and only governments can grant and enforce monopolies in the private sector. The first monopolies created by the US Federal Government were the US Post Office (a government monopoly) and the George Washington's private whiskey monopoly.

The cartels and monopolies (both in governments and public and private) pauperize the great majority of citizens to the advantage of themselves and other government workers (public monopolies) and patronage purchasing private monopolies.

See Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith dated 1750.

The bigger and older the nation state the worse this corruption becomes and the more the living standard falls for the general citizens in the population who are disconnected from government patronage.

In the end all such governed nations implode and collapse permanently as did Egypt, Rome, Greece, China, and England to name a few. The population dies off or moves away and the dwindling big government lovers write books or at least short reports explaining why more government was needed.

Good Luck


The author wants to increase the power and size of US governments which are the problem and not the solution

The Dow Priced in Ounces of Gold: Secular Bear Market Since '99

Whops, should have a reading of 0.8 in Oct 2009.

The Dow Priced in Ounces of Gold: Secular Bear Market Since '99

Fabulous charts. Thank you for all the work.

Always remember that the DJIA is a chart of cartel members and monopolies and the method of calculating the average is cooked by using the market weighting technique which puts an upward bias on it.

The 200 year chart is really interesting. Wide swings began to occcur in the ratio line after the Federal Reserve Bank was set up in the USA in the early 1900's.

Two obsevations come to mind.
1. The osclations are getting wider.
2. The uptrend in the ratio of stock prices over gold prices ended when the FED was set up in the USA.

Of course that was also when political rule of states by royal families all around the world ended.

Now let us try to extend the chart and guess the next turning point value and date.

How about a reading of 0.08 in Oct 2009?

Good luck.

The Dead Cat Returns to Earth

Take the chart above into Elliott Wave analysis and see the first wave down from Oct 2007 to Mar 2008 is a 1-2-3-4-5 formation.

Then look at the nice A-B-C wave up from May 2008 to July 2008.
A new 1-2-3-4-5 down began in July 2008 and shoud last through Oct 2008 with a target of 1100.

That would complete a larger scale A-B-C wave from Oct 2007 to Oct 2008.

Then, what next?

We guess that a recovery from OCT 2008 to March 2009 will be followed by another down leg to OCT 2009.

See your investment advisor before making investmenet decisions.

Good luck.