Dave_O

Housing Market Datapoint of the Day

I see Cetin Hakimoglu has an interesting blog: seekingalpha.com/autho...

Yikes, But Duh: Housing Bottom Could Be Two Years Off

"Prediction... As soon as interest rates go up (or threaten to) there will be a rush of buyers running to the market. If it's hard to qualify now it will be even more difficult with higher rates so there will be motivation to buy. The tension between tempting home prices and rising rates will force potential buyers to make a move."

The way I see it, rising interest rates will only depress prices further as people can only afford so much each month, so prices will have to fall further to compensate for higher interest. Why lock in a low rate if the price is high when you can wait for interest rates to rise and prices to fall further to compensate? Say if rates go up to 12% and prices fall another 40% to compensate, if you buy then at least you bought at a lower price and could refinance if rates eventually go below 12% later on. But if you buy at a high price now at 6% interest rate and the rates rise, you bought at a higher price and can't refinance to a lower rate since rates won't go below 6% for at least 15 years.

Bernanke's Words

Would Paul Volcker allow such unnecessary inflation that we have now, just to keep house prices from falling faster to where they need to be?

December 2007 S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Data Shows Record Declines

Starnet7, your math is incorrect. If you have a 100% gain followed by a 13.7% loss, you net gain is 72.6%. That is because the % loss is from a larger number to begin with. The % gain is from a smaller number to begin with.

Western Cities Top U.S. Home Price Declines

I'm confused. I thought the decline in real estate prices in 2007 was just a blip, according to the nation's leading expert of real estate, Lawrence Yun (chief economist of NAR) - www.blogtoplist.com/ou.... Clearly these graphs, even for non-western cities, show that it's more than just a "blip". Someone is incorrect.

Foreclosures: Coming Soon to a Neighborhood Near You

"I don't know when that will come. I expect to be hunkered down through 2008."

Why do so many people think that the necessary drop in house prices is just an annoying anomaly that we just have to deal with, and that it's caused by something other than humans (as if it's a weather event)? The detachment of house prices from incomes lasted about 5 years or so, and seeing how slowly prices are coming down due to denial and measures trying to stop the correction, it will take at least 5 years from the top (2006) before the decline ends. That would make the bottom happen in 2011 at the earliest; probably later than that.

Trying to think that 2008 is the last year for price drops is just wishful thinking. Remember how the NAR and others in the media have told us over and over for the last two years that either we've already reached bottom or we will very soon. Of course their predictions fail, but they keep making new predictions that fail as well. And why does no one call BS on them? Wishful thinking.

When mortgage payments on a 30-year fixed mortgage equal monthly rent payments in a given area, THEN, but not before then, can you say that house prices have reached bottom.