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sid18

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  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: It Should Not Take A Genius To Run This Business [View article]
    thanks*
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rayonier Advanced Materials: It Should Not Take A Genius To Run This Business [View article]
    the for the article
    Dec 18, 2014. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Continental Resources Cannot Grow At 25% With Oil At $65 [View article]
    Just trying to understand the all the moving parts here...if the producers are hedged, why still, would they keep producing oil if the cash break-even costs are above the spot price?

    If the hedged price is $95, cash-break even price is $75 and WTI spot is $55, would it still make sense to keep producing? Or simply shut down everything and monetize the hedges and wait for oil prices to spike upwards?
    Dec 13, 2014. 10:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Medallion Financial: Classic Case Of A Thought Virus Gone Wild [View article]
    I'm very curious about this company and thesis...very "off the beaten track" type of company...as niche as it gets.

    But, in order to buy into the long thesis, you must believe:

    1. The medallions are/were fairly priced even before Uber/Lyft appeared.
    2. That Uber/Lyft won't cause a permanent/irrevocable haircut into the medallion pricing (bubble?)
    3. At the end of the day, medallion is (and this far, has been) an income producing asset and its value is a function of (i) Earnings power and (ii) interest rates, among other things. What happens if Uber forces taxis to lower their fares? And what happens when interest rates rise?

    Someone mentioned in one of the other (TAXI) article that the consumer lending business is to lend for luxuries (not necessities). What happens if there's a recession and the luxuries are the first to get write-downs?

    Too many moving parts here...would your thoughts, thanks.
    Dec 4, 2014. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of Thursday's OPEC Developments [View article]
    More like...let's eliminate the high cost producers in the market so the cartel can go back to determining the price.

    Although to be clear, there's nothing that prevents shale from coming online once price goes $100/bbl. So I suppose shale sets a ceiling rather than OPEC setting a floor.
    Nov 28, 2014. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Nigeria's parliament wants Shell to pay $3.96B for oil spill [View news story]
    A drop in the bucket compared to the amount of oil this company has usurped and the extent to which the company's wanton recklessness has caused in environmental damage for present and future generations of the Ogoni people.

    Shell is the modern day imperialist sucking the financial lifeblood of the indigenous people in the lawless and corrupt Nigerian delta. Anyone daring to oppose is either bribed or executed.
    Nov 27, 2014. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ebix's (EBIX) CEO Robin Raina on Q3 2014 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    That has been the case for EBIX for many years now. I realize I can't have it all and if there's one place I'd accept the company cut corners is in promoting itself.

    As a long term holder, I don't mind the company being "misunderstood" for a long time as it allows them to buyback on the cheap.

    The company seems to be on the right track and the scary headlines and the fear-mongering seems to have almost entirely dissipated. All it needs is now to emerge unscathed from the current investigations; because sooner or later, the market will be forced to value EBIX for what it is (a reliable cash flow machine with a shrewd owner-operator at helm) rather than what some purported it to be (a scam).
    Nov 8, 2014. 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q&A: Awilco Drilling Lost More Than 30%, What To Do Next? [View article]
    Meh...predicting prices in the short run is a fool's errand. Oil/Offshore sector is out of flavor and getting more so by the day. Plus the float of this stock is mostly owned by retail investors that don't hesitate to panic.

    What remains to be see is whether Hess picks up the option, and if so, at what day-rates. The saving grace is that one of the rigs is already on contract for the next couple of years, and even in a horrible market, Awilco will manage to lease the other rig at a day-rate far lower than its competitors due to lower overall costs than the competitors.
    Oct 15, 2014. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q&A: Awilco Drilling Lost More Than 30%, What To Do Next? [View article]
    As far as the report - did you find it biased? Ofc it would be better if it had been published by an independent/non-profit third party...but still...there are some good details in the report it seems.
    Oct 14, 2014. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Is Still The World's Most Undervalued Company [View article]
    "A lot of oil majors are selling their North Sea assets, I guess they don't see enough potential anymore."

    Is that after the latest oil price drop or before? If I recall correctly, one rig is doing the drilling and another is doing abandonment. And there's a lot of abandonment work still left to be done in the coming years in the north sea.

    Majors selling assets should hopefully signal to Chancellor George Osborne that lower taxes are needed to reinvigorate the business in that part of the world. http://bit.ly/1tjcvrZ
    Oct 10, 2014. 11:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Is Still The World's Most Undervalued Company [View article]
    Thanks Tony. Can you share what shipping magazine it was, that you're talking about?

    I only fear day rates coming down due to a supply glut in the UDW and jackup market and lower oil prices in the short-medium term. Who knows where oil will be long term...(at least I don't).
    Oct 10, 2014. 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Is Still The World's Most Undervalued Company [View article]
    Is anybody here modeling the outcome of a lower net income after 2015-2016? It wouldn't be a surprise if we have lower day-rates (due to lower oil) or new rigs (of the many new ones that are entering in the next few years) pressuring the UDW rig dayrates and hence forcing the shallow-water midwater semisubs to accept lower day-rates? I know north sea market is relatively insulated due to regulatory hurdles and the cost of moving the rig from one corner of the globe to north-sea, but if UDW rig dayrates are forced lower, aren't mid-water semi-sub rates forced lower as well ?

    Because the dividend is highly levered to day-rates, a 30% drop in day-rates would lead to a div cut of more than 30%

    Awilco isn't as risky a buy at this price, IMO, as it was $24+

    I feel sorry for those that got sucked in at that price (oil sector is cyclical) and forming a "price target" by assigning a reasonable yield to a dividend at the TOP of the cycle is quite foolish. I know it's easy to call top in hindsight, but even back then, it was clear that it wasn't anywhere near bottom.

    Remember - cyclical stocks always screen "CHEAP" at the top of the cycle much like they screen "EXPENSIVE" at the bottom of the cycle.

    If I remember Harry Long's original article on Awilco, he arrived at a price target of above $40/share by taking the then prevailing dividend and coming up with a price that would yield 8% dividend yield....I wonder if he still believes it
    Oct 10, 2014. 07:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q&A: Awilco Drilling Lost More Than 30%, What To Do Next? [View article]
    @dlitten: Can you please expand on that?

    These two rigs are getting new BOPs and will be among the competitive ones and as I understand the North Sea market, it's rather insulated and new mid-water semisubs aren't being built currently; it's the jackups and UDW rigs that are being built...

    So where is the new supply going to come from? TIA - just trying to get the full picture.
    Sep 22, 2014. 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Is Still The World's Most Undervalued Company [View article]
    I don't think there's a "right" price or a "wrong" price. Everyone has different goals, risk tolerance and a view of the future. The last thing you want is buying on somebody else's recommendation/view of the future and then lacking the resolve when things go south (like they appear to be going, now).

    My average PPS is around $19 (but I've already enjoyed over $4 worth of dividends), and I'm quite happy to hold for the dividends.

    I sold some of my position at around $25 and re-entered at around $19.5, obviously missing the drop following my latest purchase...but I'm often wrong...so as always - Caveat emptor!
    Sep 12, 2014. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Market's View Of Outerwall Is Wrong [View article]
    When you double kiosks at a single location, the SSS will obviously drop, hence it's better to look at revenue, and whether the marginal profit of adding a kiosk is worth the marginal cost.
    Sep 11, 2014. 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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