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sid18

sid18
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  • Awilco Drilling Is Still The World's Most Undervalued Company [View article]
    I don't think there's a "right" price or a "wrong" price. Everyone has different goals, risk tolerance and a view of the future. The last thing you want is buying on somebody else's recommendation/view of the future and then lacking the resolve when things go south (like they appear to be going, now).

    My average PPS is around $19 (but I've already enjoyed over $4 worth of dividends), and I'm quite happy to hold for the dividends.

    I sold some of my position at around $25 and re-entered at around $19.5, obviously missing the drop following my latest purchase...but I'm often wrong...so as always - Caveat emptor!
    Sep 12 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Market's View Of Outerwall Is Wrong [View article]
    When you double kiosks at a single location, the SSS will obviously drop, hence it's better to look at revenue, and whether the marginal profit of adding a kiosk is worth the marginal cost.
    Sep 11 03:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Awilco Earnings [View article]
    What does "As a rough estimate this could equate to work for around 2 rigs for each year" mean?
    Sep 9 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Awilco Earnings [View article]
    Ya because most holdings are held in street name...right?
    Sep 5 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Awilco Drilling Is Still The World's Most Undervalued Company [View article]
    To answer your questions as it seemed they were asked to me (as you replied to my comment):

    It's a subjective answer - if you believe these rigs will last nearly as long as the management promises (around 2030) then yes. I believe that's a stretch, and hence do not believe it was undervalued at 26. In fact, I sold a portion of my holding at around $25-$26.

    Volatility is a part and parcel of the creature that is the stock market and I neither rejoice at upswings, nor bemoan the downswings in the quoted stock prices. The only attention I pay to is the fundamentals and today's drop was partially about the sellers paying a price in order to acquire the liquidity they desired and partially about the buyers (existing and prospective) questioning why the parent might choose to reduce its stake if in fact it was so attractive. However, there was no fundamental shift in the business. The rigs are still intact and running (as far as I know) and the contracts will still be enforced, the profit will still be earned and will be paid out via dividend.

    I appreciate your desire to "warn some people around here" but you were questioning the company's existence, not whether it was slightly undervalued or overvalued.

    I looked back at the comments you made, and there were as follows:

    "Anything that yields so much is suspicious to me"

    "If they are so great why do they buy old rigs from (RIG)? And why are they listed on OTC ? Thanks but no thanks!"

    "When something yields so much it is nothing but a ponzi scheme"

    All three questions stem from your apparent ignorance of the company's history and a deep bias against "Anything that yields so much" ...akin to a EMT professor finding $100 bill on the floor but declining to inspect it because it simply cannot be a genuine $100 bill, because if it were, someone would've taken it!

    And your question about whether it's undervalued now...I believe so, but not as much as when I first bought it (around the same price) - 1 year ago.

    I don't think there are any "sure bets" in the market so it's my goal to find investments that are closest to "sure bets" and have a risk/reward ratio skewed to the upside. No one bats a 100 but I believe AWLCF is one of those stocks that will beat the averages, if, it's bought at the right price.

    To each his own, cheers.
    Sep 4 02:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons The Market's View Of Outerwall Is Wrong [View article]
    ^^ I second that.
    Sep 3 05:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall: A Maturing Cash Cow Offering A 17% FCF Yield [View article]
    1. You are right about the transaction size. I'd argue that during the moment one makes a decision to rent, I doubt most people think "ok this will be a $2-3 commitment...." rather it's a "a movie for a dollar and change is nice"

    On the other hand, $5-$6 lump sum price point can be hard to swallow.

    2. Why is that? Can you expand on it? Will coin usage drop precipitously? Will online rental prices come down significantly?

    I'm a believe that future is full of randomness and uncertainty and it is in this world that OUTR offers a decent risk/reward. If ecoATM takes off or if DVD doesn't die as fast as print/yellow pages, there's nice upside availablee.
    Sep 2 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall: A Maturing Cash Cow Offering A 17% FCF Yield [View article]
    "If a business were maturing, we would expect O.C.F to be flat and capital expenditures to be declining."

    OCF is actually flat if you net out the change in WC and capex isn't increasing but for the fact that they are investing in ecoATM kiosks. The capex of Coinstar and RedBox businesses is NOT increasing.
    Aug 31 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outerwall: A Maturing Cash Cow Offering A 17% FCF Yield [View article]
    "...Netflix, I believe, (has) to wait for another 28 days before (it) can rent the movies according to their agreements with the studios."

    This is NOT true. Netflix does NOT have titles 28 days after they are released on DVDs. Not even close. See http://nyti.ms/1mDTlFS

    Decent article otherwise. I like that you point out (correctly) that the core FCF is much higher than GAAP net income, because depreciation exceeds capex and the maintenance capex of the core businesses is much lower than the current capex spending. A bulk of current capex spend goes towards expanding ecoATM kiosks.
    Aug 31 04:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Awilco Earnings [View article]
    There are a few brokers that DO NOT charge the foreign transaction fee. The ones that I know of, are ETrade, MerrillEdge. TDAmeritrade $15 foreign transaction fee I believe.
    Aug 30 03:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google-Twitch reportedly thwarted by antitrust issues; Amazon rallies [View news story]
    Interesting take. Why would twitch's investors have a problem with AMZN stock? AMZN has plenty of liquidity. More like Jeff Bezos thought paying cash was a better deal for him than offering stock?
    Aug 26 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Google-Twitch reportedly thwarted by antitrust issues; Amazon rallies [View news story]
    "I never understood why Google was interested in the first place"

    Because Google wants to dominate the live stream market (which Twitch does), just as it dominates finished, recorded videos market (with Youtube).
    Aug 26 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blucora's Strong Fundamentals Obscured By Overblown Headwinds [View article]
    Any analysis on BluCora without separately valuing each of the segments, is incomplete analysis.
    Aug 26 03:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Awilco Earnings [View article]
    The thing about this company is that (according to the management), these rigs are poised to last so long that the dividend increase/decrease in the interim is meaningless as long as oil prices don't crash. Someone mentioned earlier that even if management is optimistic by 10 years and the rigs are only competitive till 2021, it's still a home-run because the dividends would exceed the current price without counting the residual scrap value of the rigs + BOPs.

    I'd love to pick the major shareholder's brain and try to understand what his end game is. Is he waiting for a top? Does he really want to keep these rigs operating until 2030++?
    Aug 19 03:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Awilco Earnings [View article]
    In your model, is depreciation and amortization included in the "Operating, g&a, other" expense?

    If so, I see the income tax rate you're using is around 19-20%
    Aug 18 04:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
310 Comments
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