Bespoke BullSh*t

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16 Comments

    • Wed Nov 5th 13:05 PM | Rating: 0 -2
      Commented on:
      The Day After: Is the Honeymoon Already Over?
      Going out on a limb here, but maybe the sell off today has something to do with the fact that the equity markets (all of them) have gone up more than 15% in the last 10 days or so???

      Seriously, why do these guys still post this nonsense and look at things in vacuum?
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 2nd 20:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Three Stocks We're Long With High Conviction
      "In fact, it's doing relatively well this year, having only lost about 15%"... Seriously? in what world? That's called losing money. A money manager doesn't get paid to lose less money. He/she gets paid to actually make money
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 22nd 10:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Financials: How - And When - We Reached the Bottom
      blowhard full of convictions on calling bottoms and tops.
      View article »
    • Tue Jul 22nd 08:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Asset Class Correlations
      the only problem is that correlations are not static and so if you try and build a portfolio based on "asset class correlation" you might find yourself of mark real quick
      View article »
    • Thu May 15th 16:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      S&P 500 Historical Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio
      Mr. CrossProfit,

      I can't claim that I know with "precise certainty" what the author meant, you can so you must know something more than I do.
      My point was that the statistical correlation was weak at best and for you imply that the index will remain stagnant, based on what you read on this post, is overreaching.
      If you believe that markets are unpredictable by nature, than this type of analysis is not only useless but dangerous even. If you believe that trailing P/E ratios can indicate the general direction of the markets, best of luck to you.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 17:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      S&P 500 Historical Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio
      "In recent years, however, the trend has reversed. From 2004 to 2007, earnings expanded at a faster pace than price, even as the market rallied. Since the market peaked in late 2007, however, earnings have slowed and P/Es have risen sharply.".... Yes, it means low or insignificant correlation or non static correlation, totally useless
      View article »
    • Wed Apr 30th 15:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sell in May and Go Away?
      Why do these two guys keep posting misguided "analysis"??... Pseudo-Statistical "analysis" can actually hurt people so please stop it.
      View article »
    • Tue Apr 15th 17:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      10 Reasons to Be Bullish on Stocks
      Mr. Stichnoth shows not even the slightest doubt in his mind about the bullishness of stocks. Unfortunately there are way too many like him out there, with the same conviction and that try to pick bottoms every time the market dips. As long as these people are out there, propping up stocks and chasing bottoms, we will not see the real bottom for a while.
      What I hate the most about perma bulls is their absolute conviction in the long term direction of the stock market. Until they are smacked down hard, like they were in 2001 or until a Japan comes along, which has been in a bear/sideways market for the last 18 years. It's just goes to show you that we never learn from the past.
      Amazing really.
      View article »
    • Mon Apr 14th 16:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Lessons from the Best-Ever Hedge Fund Manager
      The book please? Where can we get it?
      View article »
    • Fri Apr 4th 11:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Response to Last 15 Non-Farm Payroll Reports Negative
      I still fail to understand the point of most of your "research pieces", this one included. What are you trying to say? That one should sell the market because of the non-farm payrolls numbers being published? I am short the market but not because it's Friday and non-farms are coming out, so I'm not trying to argue against or in favor of being short or long. It your extremely superficial methods I'm trying to argue against.

      You keep posting "statistical research" with data from 1,2-5 years. In this case 13 months. It is entirely meaningless so please stop it. 13 months of data in decades of market existence is absolutely meaningless.
      View article »
    • Thu Mar 27th 08:45 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Have Recent Crises Blown a Hole Through Modern Financial Theory?
      While I agree with the general idea of this article, I have to disagree with a couple of points that I find superficial.

      1. The "discontionuesnes... (word of the year) in market prices and lack of liquidity are not unique characteristics of today's markets. Actually market practitioners and academia have touched on these subjects before (Mandelbrot for one, Schiller another). The only thing that changes are the intricate details of what causes lack of liquidity and jumps in market prices.

      2. Black-Scholes formula of pricing options is still, unfortunately, the basis for most derivative pricing. Unless this changes, we'll keep seeing these types of blow ups from time to time, from LTMC to Bear Stearns. The markets are fractals and do not feet the "Bell Curve" (the basic assumption of Black Scholes) the sooner we learn this the better for us.
      View article »
    • Tue Feb 19th 16:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      10-Year Government Bond Yield Comparison: A Global View
      And the point here is what exactly? These guys keep coming up with this nonsense.
      View article »
    • Fri Feb 8th 16:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Tech Sector Valuation Back To Historical Lows
      Agreed. Looking at the last 13-15 years is hardly "historical"... This idea that because the PE ratios are at the same levels as in 1995, the stocks must be undervalued is just plain wrong. What about the other variables? Are they the same as 1995? Uggghhhh
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 30th 23:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time to Reconsider REIT ETFs
      Who let's this guy post this kind of nonsense on the website? Seriously Index Universe? The REITs are undervalued because they are down from their peaks? Whatajoke makes a good point; this whole article is based on comparisons between apples and oranges.

      Let's wait longer than one month before jumping on the REIT bandwagon. The crisis is far from over and REITs are to be affected the same.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 22nd 17:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Reports Q1, Beats Consensus
      No word on the guidance they missed? C'mon anyone can just take the numbers from their report. Report please don't copy and paste
      View article »
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