Bespoke BullSh*t

The Day After: Is the Honeymoon Already Over?

Going out on a limb here, but maybe the sell off today has something to do with the fact that the equity markets (all of them) have gone up more than 15% in the last 10 days or so???

Seriously, why do these guys still post this nonsense and look at things in vacuum?

Sell in May and Go Away?

Why do these two guys keep posting misguided "analysis"??? Pseudo-Statistical "analysis" can actually hurt people so please stop it.

10 Reasons to Be Bullish on Stocks

Mr. Stichnoth shows not even the slightest doubt in his mind about the bullishness of stocks. Unfortunately there are way too many like him out there, with the same conviction and that try to pick bottoms every time the market dips. As long as these people are out there, propping up stocks and chasing bottoms, we will not see the real bottom for a while.
What I hate the most about perma bulls is their absolute conviction in the long term direction of the stock market. Until they are smacked down hard, like they were in 2001 or until a Japan comes along, which has been in a bear/sideways market for the last 18 years. It's just goes to show you that we never learn from the past.
Amazing really.

Have Recent Crises Blown a Hole Through Modern Financial Theory?

While I agree with the general idea of this article, I have to disagree with a couple of points that I find superficial.

1. The "discontionuesness" (word of the year) in market prices and lack of liquidity are not unique characteristics of today's markets. Actually market practitioners and academia have touched on these subjects before (Mandelbrot for one, Schiller another). The only thing that changes are the intricate details of what causes lack of liquidity and jumps in market prices.

2. Black-Scholes formula of pricing options is still, unfortunately, the basis for most derivative pricing. Unless this changes, we'll keep seeing these types of blow ups from time to time, from LTMC to Bear Stearns. The markets are fractals and do not feet the "Bell Curve" (the basic assumption of Black Scholes) the sooner we learn this the better for us.