Bespoke BullSh*t

Asset Class Correlations

the only problem is that correlations are not static and so if you try and build a portfolio based on "asset class correlation" you might find yourself of mark real quick

S&P 500 Historical Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio

Mr. CrossProfit,

I can't claim that I know with "precise certainty" what the author meant, you can so you must know something more than I do.
My point was that the statistical correlation was weak at best and for you imply that the index will remain stagnant, based on what you read on this post, is overreaching.
If you believe that markets are unpredictable by nature, than this type of analysis is not only useless but dangerous even. If you believe that trailing P/E ratios can indicate the general direction of the markets, best of luck to you.

S&P 500 Historical Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratio

"In recent years, however, the trend has reversed. From 2004 to 2007, earnings expanded at a faster pace than price, even as the market rallied. Since the market peaked in late 2007, however, earnings have slowed and P/Es have risen sharply.".... Yes, it means low or insignificant correlation or non static correlation, totally useless

10 Reasons to Be Bullish on Stocks

Mr. Stichnoth shows not even the slightest doubt in his mind about the bullishness of stocks. Unfortunately there are way too many like him out there, with the same conviction and that try to pick bottoms every time the market dips. As long as these people are out there, propping up stocks and chasing bottoms, we will not see the real bottom for a while.
What I hate the most about perma bulls is their absolute conviction in the long term direction of the stock market. Until they are smacked down hard, like they were in 2001 or until a Japan comes along, which has been in a bear/sideways market for the last 18 years. It's just goes to show you that we never learn from the past.
Amazing really.

Market Response to Last 15 Non-Farm Payroll Reports Negative

I still fail to understand the point of most of your "research pieces", this one included. What are you trying to say? That one should sell the market because of the non-farm payrolls numbers being published? I am short the market but not because it's Friday and non-farms are coming out, so I'm not trying to argue against or in favor of being short or long. It your extremely superficial methods I'm trying to argue against.

You keep posting "statistical research" with data from 1,2-5 years. In this case 13 months. It is entirely meaningless so please stop it. 13 months of data in decades of market existence is absolutely meaningless.

Have Recent Crises Blown a Hole Through Modern Financial Theory?

While I agree with the general idea of this article, I have to disagree with a couple of points that I find superficial.

1. The "discontionuesness" (word of the year) in market prices and lack of liquidity are not unique characteristics of today's markets. Actually market practitioners and academia have touched on these subjects before (Mandelbrot for one, Schiller another). The only thing that changes are the intricate details of what causes lack of liquidity and jumps in market prices.

2. Black-Scholes formula of pricing options is still, unfortunately, the basis for most derivative pricing. Unless this changes, we'll keep seeing these types of blow ups from time to time, from LTMC to Bear Stearns. The markets are fractals and do not feet the "Bell Curve" (the basic assumption of Black Scholes) the sooner we learn this the better for us.