KSengineer's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/141013/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/160285-essay-on-macroeconomics-where-krugman-fails?source=feed#comment-665464 665464 How about 1.6T?

On Sep 07 01:45 PM Roger Knights wrote:

> "very little stimulus spending (something like $100bn)"
>
> How about one trillion in QE to hold down interest rates and thereby
> bolster the stock market and real estate market?]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 16:10:22 -0400 How about 1.6T?

On Sep 07 01:45 PM Roger Knights wrote:

> "very little stimulus spending (something like $100bn)"
>
> How about one trillion in QE to hold down interest rates and thereby
> bolster the stock market and real estate market?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159081-a-historical-perspective-on-u-s-debt-growth?source=feed#comment-653889 653889
If the Chinese (or anyone else for that matter) are expected to continue financing the debt, doesn't that imply a continued, large current account imbalance? Enough to offset the increase in treasury borrowing. Otherwise, where will the foreigners get the dollars to fund our ever increasing debt?

I'm not an economist, perhaps there are other ways. But if not, isn't that just more of the same thing that got us where we are today, overextended on credit?]]> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 19:08:51 -0400
If the Chinese (or anyone else for that matter) are expected to continue financing the debt, doesn't that imply a continued, large current account imbalance? Enough to offset the increase in treasury borrowing. Otherwise, where will the foreigners get the dollars to fund our ever increasing debt?

I'm not an economist, perhaps there are other ways. But if not, isn't that just more of the same thing that got us where we are today, overextended on credit?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158330-how-the-federal-reserve-is-monetizing-debt?source=feed#comment-648191 648191
Just wondering.]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 20:28:07 -0400
Just wondering.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158369-reappointing-bernanke-is-a-mistake?source=feed#comment-647436 647436 Wed, 26 Aug 2009 11:59:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/157644-51-68-in-165-days?source=feed#comment-641244 641244
Japan has languished because they refused to deal with their economic colapse according to reality. Aren't we doing exactly the same? Did the investors who created this mess lose their money? Not yet. But a lot of others have. Have the bad loans been dealt with? Not yet. And we all know it. What has happened is the Fed has pumped dollars into the "too-big-to-fail" companies (the one's who should of lost it all) and the government has handed money to it's citizens to "stimulate" things.

Oh yes, and the media has pumped persistently positive news to the citizens designed to change moods rather than report fact.

Bernanke thinks he has it figured out. That he can engineer a graceful recovery and save the world. I think he's convinced has a lot of new tricks up his sleave that will make it different this time. I'm just afraid that his power is still inferior to the market's even though he has a infinite number of dollars to play with.

And when the market decides to take over once again, look out below.]]> Sat, 22 Aug 2009 18:50:06 -0400
Japan has languished because they refused to deal with their economic colapse according to reality. Aren't we doing exactly the same? Did the investors who created this mess lose their money? Not yet. But a lot of others have. Have the bad loans been dealt with? Not yet. And we all know it. What has happened is the Fed has pumped dollars into the "too-big-to-fail" companies (the one's who should of lost it all) and the government has handed money to it's citizens to "stimulate" things.

Oh yes, and the media has pumped persistently positive news to the citizens designed to change moods rather than report fact.

Bernanke thinks he has it figured out. That he can engineer a graceful recovery and save the world. I think he's convinced has a lot of new tricks up his sleave that will make it different this time. I'm just afraid that his power is still inferior to the market's even though he has a infinite number of dollars to play with.

And when the market decides to take over once again, look out below.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157257-no-great-depression-redux?source=feed#comment-637830 637830
Your article implys that since today's leaders won't make the same mistakes of the 1930's we won't get a similar market drop (other than the normal corrections). In my view, that logic is flawed. Not repeating the same mistake doesn't preclude the same result.

I really think today's Keynesian philosophy is being grossly misapplied. The fundamental truth is that the "price" for the incredible scam perpetrated by banks, mortgage lenders and wall street and aided by government malfeasance, must be paid. It'll be paid by those responsible or it'll be pushed off onto those not responsible. But it MUST be paid at some point.

I'm "blown away" daily by the underlying concept perpetrated by Wall Street, the media and the government, that urges the population to believe we can avoid the consequences by dumping liquidy on the economy and then removing it at just the right time.

The pain is being pushed forward, certainly. And, it's being transfered from the quilty (too-big-to-fail companies, yada, yada) and onto the innocent (massive public debt). The great assumption being imployed today, IMO, is that the economy will strengthen to a point where this pain can be successfully "hidden" and slowly removed. This is where I believe the next big mistake is being made.

Our society has been conditioned to live in the present and ignore the future. Refusal to deal with our problems, which are obvious and huge, at the present time, will only add "interest" to the pain.]]> Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:36:49 -0400
Your article implys that since today's leaders won't make the same mistakes of the 1930's we won't get a similar market drop (other than the normal corrections). In my view, that logic is flawed. Not repeating the same mistake doesn't preclude the same result.

I really think today's Keynesian philosophy is being grossly misapplied. The fundamental truth is that the "price" for the incredible scam perpetrated by banks, mortgage lenders and wall street and aided by government malfeasance, must be paid. It'll be paid by those responsible or it'll be pushed off onto those not responsible. But it MUST be paid at some point.

I'm "blown away" daily by the underlying concept perpetrated by Wall Street, the media and the government, that urges the population to believe we can avoid the consequences by dumping liquidy on the economy and then removing it at just the right time.

The pain is being pushed forward, certainly. And, it's being transfered from the quilty (too-big-to-fail companies, yada, yada) and onto the innocent (massive public debt). The great assumption being imployed today, IMO, is that the economy will strengthen to a point where this pain can be successfully "hidden" and slowly removed. This is where I believe the next big mistake is being made.

Our society has been conditioned to live in the present and ignore the future. Refusal to deal with our problems, which are obvious and huge, at the present time, will only add "interest" to the pain.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155933-why-this-rally-will-continue?source=feed#comment-629088 629088
There are no green shoots. The headline writers continue to write misleading headlines every single day. Many countries, in their back rooms, are plotting the demise of the dollar as the reserve currency. I guess we can push that problem into the future too (it's become the American way). The US debt is already increasing exponentially from severe lack of self control and all our leaders want to do is pile more and more costs on us as healthcare reform and save-the-plant initiatives (then lie about how it'll be cheaper in the future). I feel like I live in the Twilight Zone. Serious problems face the citizens of the US, but what we mostly get is marshmellow news.

What has happened to all the bad loans that caused this problem? Where are they? Who is taking the loss? If you believe the news, they must have simply disappeared. There's no word of them, no sign of them. Yet, forclosures continue to climb at an alarming rate. Perhaps bad loans are just one of those "lagging" indicators that don't factor into the future.

The US is self destructing and we're being lead down that path by the so-called smartest of our society. I've had enough of the brainiaks. Give me someone with common sense for a change. The Fed is in the process of creating another bubble by pushing the problems forward. However, the cost of doing that will be too great for us to bear when the time arrives. ]]> Thu, 13 Aug 2009 19:28:16 -0400
There are no green shoots. The headline writers continue to write misleading headlines every single day. Many countries, in their back rooms, are plotting the demise of the dollar as the reserve currency. I guess we can push that problem into the future too (it's become the American way). The US debt is already increasing exponentially from severe lack of self control and all our leaders want to do is pile more and more costs on us as healthcare reform and save-the-plant initiatives (then lie about how it'll be cheaper in the future). I feel like I live in the Twilight Zone. Serious problems face the citizens of the US, but what we mostly get is marshmellow news.

What has happened to all the bad loans that caused this problem? Where are they? Who is taking the loss? If you believe the news, they must have simply disappeared. There's no word of them, no sign of them. Yet, forclosures continue to climb at an alarming rate. Perhaps bad loans are just one of those "lagging" indicators that don't factor into the future.

The US is self destructing and we're being lead down that path by the so-called smartest of our society. I've had enough of the brainiaks. Give me someone with common sense for a change. The Fed is in the process of creating another bubble by pushing the problems forward. However, the cost of doing that will be too great for us to bear when the time arrives. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151845-revenues-down-profits-up-is-this-a-problem?source=feed#comment-605209 605209
I'm pretty sure profits did NOT RISE. For the S&P 500, operating profits are expected to be down about 31% y/y. "As reported" profits will be much worse.

That statement is what's so amazing about the news reporting these past few months. How many times have I heard "green shoots" when what is being reported is a slowing rate of decline. In my garden, green shoots rise up. That is not the same as a slower decline. A month-over-month increase in housing sales would qualify. But the term has been used a million times.

I think the prevailing economic philosophy is that the economy is what people perceive it to be. So our perceptions have been tinkered with in hopes of creating a recovery out of it. Tinkering with the data by not reporting it or mis-characterizing a negative as something positive, is dishonest. Manipulating people is wrong.

My belief is that it will end up hurting people who trust what they read and hear from the main stream media. It will also hurt those trying to invest based on the facts (since the up-front, reported facts are very distorted).]]> Tue, 28 Jul 2009 13:03:06 -0400
I'm pretty sure profits did NOT RISE. For the S&P 500, operating profits are expected to be down about 31% y/y. "As reported" profits will be much worse.

That statement is what's so amazing about the news reporting these past few months. How many times have I heard "green shoots" when what is being reported is a slowing rate of decline. In my garden, green shoots rise up. That is not the same as a slower decline. A month-over-month increase in housing sales would qualify. But the term has been used a million times.

I think the prevailing economic philosophy is that the economy is what people perceive it to be. So our perceptions have been tinkered with in hopes of creating a recovery out of it. Tinkering with the data by not reporting it or mis-characterizing a negative as something positive, is dishonest. Manipulating people is wrong.

My belief is that it will end up hurting people who trust what they read and hear from the main stream media. It will also hurt those trying to invest based on the facts (since the up-front, reported facts are very distorted).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150710-key-factors-driving-the-market?source=feed#comment-600427 600427
I can understand money flowing from bonds to stocks, or cash being added to workers 401k's each month or companies purchasing their own stock.

What am I missing? What is meant by "sideline" money?

On Jul 23 09:08 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> Don't forget money on the sidelines as a driver.]]> Thu, 23 Jul 2009 23:13:06 -0400
I can understand money flowing from bonds to stocks, or cash being added to workers 401k's each month or companies purchasing their own stock.

What am I missing? What is meant by "sideline" money?

On Jul 23 09:08 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> Don't forget money on the sidelines as a driver.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132315-tipping-point-for-u-s-treasuries?source=feed#comment-473132 473132 ]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:33:12 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131272-unemployment-claims-signaling-recession-s-end?source=feed#comment-465837 465837 Thu, 16 Apr 2009 18:05:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127484-anatomy-of-a-giveaway-or-why-stocks-soared-yesterday?source=feed#comment-437776 437776 Tue, 24 Mar 2009 07:08:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125580-why-it-s-actually-different-this-time?source=feed#comment-423217 423217

On Mar 12 09:06 AM Oquichtli wrote:

> Pathetic fear mongering. You should be punished to the for spouting
> such fear. I know, fear sells papers and gets fools to read pathetic
> blogs like yours. Why don't you inform the dumb masses how to profit
> in this environment(i.e. highly volatile markets make fortunes for
> options trading) instead of scaring the hell out of their weak minds?
> Oh I know why, you are protecting the business agenda of the masters
> who own you. Just like that fool Ron Paul. Trying to scare the zombie
> sheep. You all should be put to justice.]]> Thu, 12 Mar 2009 11:38:57 -0400

On Mar 12 09:06 AM Oquichtli wrote:

> Pathetic fear mongering. You should be punished to the for spouting
> such fear. I know, fear sells papers and gets fools to read pathetic
> blogs like yours. Why don't you inform the dumb masses how to profit
> in this environment(i.e. highly volatile markets make fortunes for
> options trading) instead of scaring the hell out of their weak minds?
> Oh I know why, you are protecting the business agenda of the masters
> who own you. Just like that fool Ron Paul. Trying to scare the zombie
> sheep. You all should be put to justice.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124827-why-this-downturn-won-t-be-like-1929?source=feed#comment-419466 419466
"Bread lines" ... Have you been to Texas Roadhouse lately? If you decide to go on a Friday or Saturday night, make sure you allow plenty of wait time for a table. I don't think these are the bread lines that haunt us. Something is very different about this "depression."]]> Mon, 09 Mar 2009 14:05:18 -0400
"Bread lines" ... Have you been to Texas Roadhouse lately? If you decide to go on a Friday or Saturday night, make sure you allow plenty of wait time for a table. I don't think these are the bread lines that haunt us. Something is very different about this "depression."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122571-bernanke-vs-feirman-on-the-prospects-for-a-recovery-in-2010?source=feed#comment-403043 403043
I wonder why there's this desperate attempt to "save" the largest banks. We're told its because their failure will cause the colapse of the entire financial system. However, I'm not sure I buy that. I'm wondering if it has more to do with saving the fortunes of the east coast wealth barrons instead. Otherwise, why not let the weak banks fail? The pieces will be purchased by the stronger banks and life will move on. I'm not naive enough to think that it wouldn't be a shock to the system. Perhaps a big shock. But would it be overwhelming?

I think what we are seeing is corruption at the highest levels. The wealthy protecting their wealth at the expense of taxpayers. Therefore, this fiasco will continue for some time since the real healing is being inhibited.

]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 11:14:05 -0500
I wonder why there's this desperate attempt to "save" the largest banks. We're told its because their failure will cause the colapse of the entire financial system. However, I'm not sure I buy that. I'm wondering if it has more to do with saving the fortunes of the east coast wealth barrons instead. Otherwise, why not let the weak banks fail? The pieces will be purchased by the stronger banks and life will move on. I'm not naive enough to think that it wouldn't be a shock to the system. Perhaps a big shock. But would it be overwhelming?

I think what we are seeing is corruption at the highest levels. The wealthy protecting their wealth at the expense of taxpayers. Therefore, this fiasco will continue for some time since the real healing is being inhibited.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122462-u-s-debt-watch-paths-to-repudiation?source=feed#comment-402944 402944

On Feb 25 08:16 AM ecliptix543 wrote:

> I have heard and read more comments recently about a tax revolt.
> What sort of form might this take? In this computerized withholding
> economy, how does one pull that off? I would think en masse refusal
> to pay property taxes would be the most effective in terms of media
> coverage but it would affect primarily local gov't. How does one
> protest the Federal government?]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:33:53 -0500

On Feb 25 08:16 AM ecliptix543 wrote:

> I have heard and read more comments recently about a tax revolt.
> What sort of form might this take? In this computerized withholding
> economy, how does one pull that off? I would think en masse refusal
> to pay property taxes would be the most effective in terms of media
> coverage but it would affect primarily local gov't. How does one
> protest the Federal government?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120789-whistling-past-the-graveyard?source=feed#comment-390546 390546
"Not only is it hastening the early death of the victim, it's also killing an opportunity to solve the problem and take steps toward a sensible treatment that will lead to a cure."

I have no hope our leaders will ever do the right thing. But, then, "we the people" have asked for it. And we are about to receive it. The ultimate blame lies with US, collectively.

This country is in serious trouble and the current administration is doing all it can to hasten the demise.]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 12:04:39 -0500
"Not only is it hastening the early death of the victim, it's also killing an opportunity to solve the problem and take steps toward a sensible treatment that will lead to a cure."

I have no hope our leaders will ever do the right thing. But, then, "we the people" have asked for it. And we are about to receive it. The ultimate blame lies with US, collectively.

This country is in serious trouble and the current administration is doing all it can to hasten the demise.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118725-executive-pay-restrictions-will-deplete-wall-street-s-elevator-assets?source=feed#comment-377309 377309
I've heard the talent argument over and over. The problem is that it's not just talent that a company needs. It's talent plus honesty. Some of the most talented people are also very greedy. And some are verified crooks (like the new treasury secretary and a couple other recent nominees).]]> Thu, 05 Feb 2009 14:20:26 -0500
I've heard the talent argument over and over. The problem is that it's not just talent that a company needs. It's talent plus honesty. Some of the most talented people are also very greedy. And some are verified crooks (like the new treasury secretary and a couple other recent nominees).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118673-the-market-s-going-nowhere?source=feed#comment-376878 376878 Thu, 05 Feb 2009 10:36:02 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115919-how-do-you-recapitalize-1-8-trillion-in-bank-loan-losses?source=feed#comment-362989 362989
On Jan 22 09:31 AM James Wilson wrote:

> You take a really close look at who wrote the mortages that are now
> bad. Then you pulll all those loans and check 5 % of them for accuracy
> then put the lenders who wrote them in jail for breaking the RICO
> ACT.
>
> Then you take all their money, sell their homes, cars, pimp out the
> wife and find all the offshore property claim it and sell it.]]> Thu, 22 Jan 2009 10:30:12 -0500
On Jan 22 09:31 AM James Wilson wrote:

> You take a really close look at who wrote the mortages that are now
> bad. Then you pulll all those loans and check 5 % of them for accuracy
> then put the lenders who wrote them in jail for breaking the RICO
> ACT.
>
> Then you take all their money, sell their homes, cars, pimp out the
> wife and find all the offshore property claim it and sell it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/114405-a-sloppy-60-minutes-segment-on-oil-prices?source=feed#comment-353762 353762
"Propaganda is the deliberate, systematic attempt to shape perceptions, manipulate cognitions, and direct behavior to achieve a response that furthers the desired intent of the propagandist."

This is now the undeniable purpose of mainstream media, 60 Minutes being just one tool.

]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 16:10:16 -0500
"Propaganda is the deliberate, systematic attempt to shape perceptions, manipulate cognitions, and direct behavior to achieve a response that furthers the desired intent of the propagandist."

This is now the undeniable purpose of mainstream media, 60 Minutes being just one tool.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110913-how-we-can-avoid-another-tragic-ponzi-scheme?source=feed#comment-331208 331208 Tue, 16 Dec 2008 13:51:50 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/110954-jim-cramer-is-starting-to-sound-a-lot-like-lenin?source=feed#comment-330836 330836 Tue, 16 Dec 2008 09:28:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/110126-autoworkers-pay-only-small-factor-in-detroit-s-problems?source=feed#comment-325669 325669
Your argument is silly. And, so is your article since it doesn't debunk the $73 myth but, rather, proves it true.]]> Wed, 10 Dec 2008 12:54:30 -0500
Your argument is silly. And, so is your article since it doesn't debunk the $73 myth but, rather, proves it true.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108886-what-happened-to-demand?source=feed#comment-319689 319689 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 09:11:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108882-first-take-on-gm-packaged-bankruptcy-inevitable?source=feed#comment-319639 319639 How does a GM bankrupcy lead to destruction of our economy? GM would not be liquidated but, rather, restructured so it can thrive in the current envionment. If GM's employees want the best opportunity to keep their jobs, they'd enthusiastically support restructuring through chapter 11 bankrupcy.

On Dec 03 05:18 AM User 263844 wrote:

> A bankruptcy for GM would mean the destruction of an already fragile
> economy. Too many jobs and retirees are connected directly to GM
> and many more indirectly.]]> Wed, 03 Dec 2008 08:30:27 -0500 How does a GM bankrupcy lead to destruction of our economy? GM would not be liquidated but, rather, restructured so it can thrive in the current envionment. If GM's employees want the best opportunity to keep their jobs, they'd enthusiastically support restructuring through chapter 11 bankrupcy.

On Dec 03 05:18 AM User 263844 wrote:

> A bankruptcy for GM would mean the destruction of an already fragile
> economy. Too many jobs and retirees are connected directly to GM
> and many more indirectly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104125-global-markets-meet-president-obama-now-what?source=feed#comment-298929 298929
This one's easy ... DOWN!
]]> Wed, 05 Nov 2008 16:38:37 -0500
This one's easy ... DOWN!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104230-the-free-lunch-approach-to-finance?source=feed#comment-298920 298920
Oh, I just figured out the problem ... our public schools aren't getting enough money. Ya, that's gotta be it.

America, what's happened to ya?]]> Wed, 05 Nov 2008 16:31:21 -0500
Oh, I just figured out the problem ... our public schools aren't getting enough money. Ya, that's gotta be it.

America, what's happened to ya?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104151-10-points-about-the-markets?source=feed#comment-298767 298767
Don't think it can happen? You might want to surf the net a little for that answer.]]> Wed, 05 Nov 2008 12:52:03 -0500
Don't think it can happen? You might want to surf the net a little for that answer.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92475-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-238252 238252
II have a sneaky suspicion that if Fanny and Freddie would have held their standards at the expected level all along, our current problems would be much smaller and confined to the private sector where the risk/reward equation could be working it’s magic without bringing the entire system down.

What I mean is if Fanny and Freddie would not have purchased those innovative investments, like CDO’s, which contained non-conforming loans and would have limited themselves to purchasing investment paper that conformed to the same risk level as CONFORMING loans are supposed to represent, my guess is this contagion would have been greatly limited. But they set the tone by purchasing high risk investments.

So, it seems to me we already have the regulations in place. What we don’t have is the discipline to live by them. The government set the bad example and now they want to regulate more. Someone needs to bring some sanity to the system. Unfortunately, I don’t’ have much hope that will ever happen since greed and self-interest is carrying the day in the USA.
]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 08:53:56 -0400
II have a sneaky suspicion that if Fanny and Freddie would have held their standards at the expected level all along, our current problems would be much smaller and confined to the private sector where the risk/reward equation could be working it’s magic without bringing the entire system down.

What I mean is if Fanny and Freddie would not have purchased those innovative investments, like CDO’s, which contained non-conforming loans and would have limited themselves to purchasing investment paper that conformed to the same risk level as CONFORMING loans are supposed to represent, my guess is this contagion would have been greatly limited. But they set the tone by purchasing high risk investments.

So, it seems to me we already have the regulations in place. What we don’t have is the discipline to live by them. The government set the bad example and now they want to regulate more. Someone needs to bring some sanity to the system. Unfortunately, I don’t’ have much hope that will ever happen since greed and self-interest is carrying the day in the USA.
]]>