Sorry for the Run-on sentences in advance. If you have any questions about my research or any data related to my blogs, just inquire about them via comment.
I am a 20 year old finance student studying the pharmaceutical industry and in particular the top performing industries of Biotech and life science research. I research companies that target untapped markets and follow capital expenditure trends of the industry to capitalize on surrounding opportunities. Companies working with government funded research institutions (NIH, Foundations, Universities) are my favorite long picks. I am long small caps with strong pipelines and balance sheets, and short most one trick unicorns that don't have value or technical support. I pick my trades on a company by company basis. I don't always require that a company is involved in a favorable industry that has unmet demand by big pharma, but that is where I believe discrepancies in valuations occur most often. Recently, I have moved with momentum and enjoy testing hype in valuations.
I use fundamental analysis, some historical pricing model techniques, and ultimately, macro themes to build and test my thesis's for industry analysis and trading. I always trade on technical analysis, but find value in fundamentals.
In 2016, my Biotech industry top picks are involved in the clinical development of therapies in ophthalmology (Dry eye, DME, AMD), rare diseases (MF, Lupus, DMD), lung disorders (COPD), cardiovascular diseases (PAH, DCM, CLI), and breakthrough cancer therapies (so basically anything Celgene, Roche, and Novartis miss).
Expecting a lot of crowding in Melanoma (ex. RXDX, ARRY) and cholesterol drugs (ex. $ESPR, $AEGR) in 2016 with multiple expected drug launches. Finally, I am excited for Biosimilars to make their debut in 2016. Many patent expirations in 2017 and before 2019 should open up some serious patent cases. I am still expecting a ton of BLAs to be filed in 2016 (ex. $PFNX, $EPRS, $MNTA, $SRNE).
Thanks for reading, tweet @Kuritzmike if you want to see what I'm trading on the day to day.
I have never been a dancer, but some might accuse me of being a diva. I liked the alliterative properties of the name and was reading a book about dancers at the time of my Seeking Alpha signup.
Born in "da Bronx" in 1956, now living in California, I spend much of my time managing the family finances, researching and trading stocks. I'm retired (as is my spouse); my background is in economics, with expertise in grains analysis. During the almost 20 years I worked for a grains exporter, a major food company and a couple of brokerage firms - always in grains analysis. In my last job, I was given the go-ahead to trade. Trading grain futures is a great way to build wealth but I've seen too many others lose it quickly, so I walked away from it in 1997 (to the surprise of many) and transferred that passion to stock analysis in 2005, several years after our son was born. The slower pace of the stock market is better suited to our advancing ages and desire for capital preservation.
What I enjoy most about the markets is the continuous learning process and read Seeking Alpha in pursuit of actionable knowledge.
Jeff is the President of NewArc Investments Inc., manager of both individual and institutional investments. Jeff is a registered investment advisor, and portfolio manager for NewArc's investment programs. Jeff is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy. Jeff began in the financial business as Research Director for trading firm at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He investigated anomalies in the standard option pricing models, taught classes for beginning options traders, and developed new forecasting techniques. In 1991 he established a general research consultancy, working with professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges. In 1998 he started NewArc Investments, Inc. Jeff has a commitment to the specific needs of individual investors. It is not a one-size-fits all approach, but one that emphasizes the unique circumstances of each client. Jeff also serves on the board of two small technology companies (currently Chairman at one). He is occasionally as an expert witness in legal cases involving financial markets and hedging.
I am the Chief of Operations at Wolfram Solutions, the consulting arm of the large privately held software company, Wolfram Research. I manage teams of programmers developing custom applications for business and, government, applying advanced analytic methods to practical challenges. I played a major role in the development of many of the financial features of Mathematica and Wolfram|Alpha. I have been at Wolfram for over 15 years. My academic background is in the social sciences and analytic methods in the social sciences, including finance, economics, statistics, modeling, simulation, and operations research. I studied at the University of Chicago, both undergrad and grad. I am also an individual investor with 30 years experience, mostly using mutual funds and fundamental analysis, plus specific investments in the financial sector. My contributions on Seeking Alpha focus on the financial sector and monetary economics, and what analysis of those areas can tell us about other macro trends. I also discuss portfolio theory, formal methods in finance, modeling and simulation of financial prices and economic time series, government statistical releases, financial regulation, and monetary policy.
Somewhere between disaster and "more of the same" is the world we all live in today, and it may go on in this same state for our lifetimes. No black swan, no collapse, no implosion of the Republic. Because there is no knowing I have given up trying to know or predict.
I have one goal. Survival at a modest level under any foreseeable future.
Let it be noted, I am a tiny investor.
If all my Shearson Lehman deals hadn't gone south, I'd be a medium small investor.
Now I trust no one.
So. Really big companies. Really good divi histories. Really broad diversification.
Buy and hold. Usually.
Gold buried in my sister's yard. Cash under the mattress. Food in the basement. And a full expectation that we shall see a blistering correction before 2020. But, no telling.
Let's talk about the big companies. I like big, strong and smart.
I want a dividend that has history, a future, and a present.
I want, five years from today, all investments made today to be yielding at least 5% based on cost.
The higher today's yield, the lower the dividend growth rate can be. So I like the "Chowder Rule." Some examples of stocks in this category (I think) are T, SO, DUK, VZ, D, AEP, and so on. Based on my cost basis.
The other extreme are a companies whose dividend growth rate leads to a reasonable expectation that it will yield 5% in five years. WMT, MCD, KMB, CL, EMR, TGT, and JNJ all are of the type. More or less, as of this writing. They will have their ups and downs. Bought right, in general, they should fit the bill.
My third favorite category are resource oriented companies, mostly oil, whose history and business fit with my goals. OXY, COP, CVX, XOM, RDS, FCX, and BHP come to mind.
These three kinds of companies represent my "core" investments. Outside the core, about 10% of the portfolio is more adventurous.
To round out the stable with some diversity I also own some REITs; O, ADC, OHI.
I also hold a very small portfolio of energy related companies like LINE, VNR, etc.
And yes, I do own little tiny positions in a few gold and silver resources. While I fully expect metals to break below the floor they are forming here in late January, 2014, but I hold them as a little insurance.
No position is over 5% of the portfolio value. Oils are overweighted on purpose as a group, perhaps foolishly, since oil may see a decline this year. Most positions are 2-3% of the total.
I try and follow Chowder and Carnevale here on SA, and wish I had gotten the divi bug sooner in life, so I preach it ofter to others. As the markets unfold, I may of may not prove to have the mettle to be a buy and hold investor.
Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is a CFA Charterholder, and has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups (Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors).
James A. Kostohryz has accumulated over twenty years of experience investing and trading virtually every asset class across the globe.
Kostohryz started his investment career as an analyst at one of the US's largest asset management firms covering sectors as diverse as emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, metals and mining. Later, Kostohryz became Chief Global Strategist and Head of International Investments for a major investment bank. Kostohryz currently manages his own investment firm, specializing in proprietary trading and institutional portfolio management advisory.
Born in Mexico, Kostohryz grew up between south Texas and Colombia, has lived and worked in nine different countries, and has traveled extensively in more than 50 others. Kostohryz actively pursues various intellectual interests and is currently writing a book about the impact of culture on economic development. He is a former NCAA and world-class decathlete and has stayed active in a variety of sports.
Kostohryz graduated with honors from both Stanford University and Harvard Law School.
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