TanToday's Comments

Apple Could Crush Competitors With a $99 iPhone

Mon, 27 Oct 2008 19:48:47 -0400

This moron doesn't even know that Apple sells the iPhone for OVER $550!

Yes, the carriers pay Apple that price, then THEY mark it down to $200 and hope to recover the difference via the subscription fees over the life of the contract, and customer retention, and customer aquistion from rivals.

So, IF THE CARRIERS WANTED TO, they could "make the iPhone $99" tomorrow morning.

Why do these morons write financial articles when they don't have a CLUE about the underlying assumptions they seem to think are so brilliant?

Sam, get a real job where you MIGHT have some expertise, I hear McDonalds is looking for burger flippers right now.....

Apple’s Guiding Light

Wed, 22 Oct 2008 08:07:34 -0400

If AAPL reported normally, without provisions to NOT SHOW all the real earnings, a requirement forced upon them by Sarbanes Oxley, since they give free upgrades to the software on the product that forces them to split the earnings over EIGHT quarters, so a real $1 earned NOW, will be reported at 12 cents for eight quarters.

Anyway, here is the REAL numbers as released by AAPL to show what they would have been without the subscription accounting forced on them by the government.

NOTE: -> They REALLY "made" $2.69 per diluted share, MUCH MORE than the reported $1.26. This means that in a complete financial hellhole, an economy that is tanking......they BEAT THE STREET by ...

DRUMROLL HERE...... 142% !

And that money is RIGHT NOW all in the bank, meaning they will have a built in cushion over the next eight quarters come what may, AND they now have over $24 BILLION in the bank for whatever needs come up.

Here is the complete chart:

i38.tinypic.com/2emn15...

Apple Reduces iPhone Planned Builds, Suppliers Could Suffer

Fri, 26 Sep 2008 21:53:20 -0400

Pacific Crest knows NOTHING CONCRETE about production runs, they have a track record that sucks, and even IF the fictional "facts" are true, this is a STUNNING accomplishment at the LOWER rates, and almost unbelievable at the higher ones.

Trouble Still Lies Ahead for Tech Sector

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 17:55:28 -0400

Wow, amazing....

Currency fluctuations affect TECH firms!! Who wudda thunk?

Come on, there is zIp new in that, and when was that NOT the case.

A whole lotta no news, spun into breaking wind.

NEXT!

Apple's Biggest Rumor: iPod or Jobs?

Tue, 26 Aug 2008 21:44:43 -0400

Steve, come out in a FATSUIT, then peel it off, drop to the floor and do five one handed pushups...then jump to your feet, yelling ..."ONE MORE THING..." and blow them all out with whoops of laughter!

Apple's Problems - Bad to the Core?

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 09:40:59 -0400

--->>"Can the House of Jobs get back on track? Despite major problems in the last 18 months, Apple still tops the ACSI’s customer satisfaction survey — ten points higher than closest competitor, Dell. And sales are robust."<<---

Therein lies the truth.

Trolling for hits here?

Whenever you have new products...OR ... old products. Some will have problems, some won't last, some will need replaced.

Contrast the LOVE that consumers have with APPL, to the FUD you are spewing in this article. Do you REALLY think that people would be this passionate about Fords, or Dells? No. People know that they are cheap crap, and they live with the problems, KNOWING that they bought cheap crap.

With Apple, they expect PERFECTION, and when that doesn't happen, they bitch and BITCH and MOAN.

Eventually the problems are fixed, replaced, or repaird.

And they BUY THE NEXT Apple product, some even standing in lines to do so.

Then they have the FUN of bitching AGAIN that the newest product or service isn't PERFECT.

See, they expect PERFECT, with the DELLS and HP's, they expect crap.

If you cannot reconcile your whinefest with this, you have written an article without honest merits.

>>>>Apple still tops the ACSI’s customer satisfaction survey — ten points higher than closest competitor, Dell. And sales are robust.<<<<...

That is really the be all, and end all, isn't it?

When To 'Believe the Hype' of a New Product

Mon, 25 Aug 2008 09:25:31 -0400

Bull.

Apple did NOT "hype" the original iPhone, when asked what premarketing approach Apple had for the phone, Steve Jobs answered "We had NONE."

Same with the new iPhone.

ZERO, hyping. In fact, there is hardly a company around that goes to such massive lengths to ASSURE THAT there will be NO advance information on a product prior to it's release.

So, the title is misleading, and the article is PURE SHAM where the author is either clueless, or trolling for hits.

On Short-Sellers and Dishonest Executives

Mon, 04 Aug 2008 08:46:08 -0400

I guess you TOTALLY IGNORING "illegal naked shorting" and the ramifications of essentially "counterfeiting shares" with unlimited numbers flooding the markets was deliberate?

One would be hard pressed to believe your expertise as a "shorter" and praise of that flavor of "investing" would leave you ignorant of the naked shorting problems.

So, where was the discussion of THAT HUGE MARKET MANIPULATION?

Apple: Dow Jones Mulls the iPhone

Tue, 22 Jul 2008 19:57:26 -0400

Oh my....Caesar is going to cross the Rubicon?

Will Erik become a cheerleader with the rest of the Fanboyz? { ... or maybe stop listening to certain unnamed "anal"-ists? }

Yes, Virginia, there really IS a Santa Clause in Cupertino!

Why GM Should Embrace Bankruptcy

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 10:23:25 -0400

{{{I am a stockholder and am extremely made that in less than one year GM has decreased its stock value by 300% ($40 per share is now $10 per share).}}}

More properly, that should be called a 75% value decrease, not 300%.

Apple: BMO Capital Raises Estimates on Strong Mac Sales

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 17:56:45 -0400

Ignore dieuwer, troll. See his entire comments listing here:

seekingalpha.com/user/...

Apple Hires Segway's CTO

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 17:55:25 -0400

Check out his historical comments:

TOTALLY negative, on all points, at all times on APPL. Must work for RIMM.

seekingalpha.com/user/...

Apple Hires Segway's CTO

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 17:53:55 -0400

{{Signs of top: screaming people in front of apple stores }}

Economics 101.

Signs of a TOPPING, *shares* are highly in demand, overstepping the actual growth of the firms economics.

Economics 102.

Signs of a market shift. *PRODUCT* cannot meet overwhelming demand real live customers panicking trying to BUY, BUY, BUY.

Methinks you flunked Elementary Economics.

... or you were short and just had visions of your nest egg going poof.

Bernstein Raises Apple's Target on Higher iPhone Forecast

Tue, 01 Jul 2008 17:09:16 -0400

Toni is a GENIUS! Really.

To actually predict a "TARGET" for a stock forcasting ONE YEAR ahead that it made the SAME DAY of the prediction!

One for the HALL OF FAME FOR THE BLINDINGLY OBVIOUS!

Toni-Toni-Toni

{ Eric, whatever the reason, your flogging of this anal-ist, has gone from interesting, to amusing, to PATHETIC now....}

A Real iPhone Challenger - Barron's

Sun, 22 Jun 2008 20:53:24 -0400

Actually this is a good thing, really.

The more the "hounds" are chasing Apple, the more the boyz in Cupertino have to ACCELERATE things.

If they lose a few sales to the "hounds' GREAT, make Jobs and Ives SWEAT a little I say!

{ disclosure: long 2600 shrs AAPL }

Not Buying It: Sanford Analyst Toni Sacconaghi's iPhone Hit Job

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 11:05:12 -0400

This link is better, it has them all and they cycle through automatically.

Tell me this isn't the PERFECT way to take on RIMM?

www.youtube.com/watch?...;feature=related

Not Buying It: Sanford Analyst Toni Sacconaghi's iPhone Hit Job

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 10:59:33 -0400

U know....I just had a BRILLIANT IDEA! { ©™ }

One of the most clever and fun advertising campaigns ever done was the "HELLO, I'M A PC" series, where you have two guys and a whitescreen and they interact. One is "Mr. PC" who is all business, or wants to be, he distains "cool" and everything has to be all business. The other guy "Mr. Mac" is laid back, iconic, and gets to play the straight man, in this series, the real hero is Mr. PC, as he struggles for respect, for coolness, and agonizes about the frustrations of being on a PC platform, especially with VISTA, the crapware that Microsoft spent seven years creating.

Now, APPLE pay attention here, EXPAND the concept. Do another series where you have "Mr. MiniKeyboard" VS "Mr. iPhone" and you can play off that interaction, the PC guy is struggling with thumbs and the like, the cool Apple guy is surfing the net, setting up a date with a hot number, and running all the neat programs that are here now, and will EXPAND exponentially!

This IS A GOOD IDEA Steve, get someone to flesh it all out.

In case you want to see the entire series of INCREDIBLY CLEVER ads that feature the interaction between Mr. PC and Mr. Mac, the link below will take you to a listing where you can view them all right now.

www.youtube.com/watch?...

{ disclosure, VERY long with 2600 shrs AAPL }

Not Buying It: Sanford Analyst Toni Sacconaghi's iPhone Hit Job

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 10:38:48 -0400

Time OUT!

One - the iPhone is a GIZMO, a gadget, a widget, just a machine.

So what? The Asians churn those out by the gazillion, for pennies too, I might add.

ANYONE, I repeat, anyone can order up a gizmo, and that includes Apple. Thank goodness, the GIZMO ain't the ballgame here.

When the iPod came out, I was using other Mp3 players, and I resisted being sucked into the "Apple Quagmire' of pay for everything, at the time I was so assured how "smart" I was, that I considered iPodders to be the equivalent of rap music likers, moron's and losers.

Then my broker, Ameritrade offered a free iPod for some extra business, I took it, thinking, "hey, it's FREE, so what do I have to lose, I'm just going to give it to the 17 year old son, and he can look cool with the other morons in the iPod world."

However, he was off at camp when it came in, so for two weeks I "messed around" with the gizmo...darn, it was SO easy to use, it did look cool, something I had never given any thought to, and the EASE of use when I hooked it up to the iTunes store astounded me. I love PODCASTS, for my bible studies, news, and commentaries...and one or two clicks, and all my PODCASTS were there daily, and that was neat. And I saw the store had movies, so I purchased a few, COOL, I could see them on the computer { that was before I got really into things and bought another one for me, a video iPod that allowed me to port them over to my big screen and watch them there }

So...time passed. I got me an iPod video, another FUN product, then I started looking at Apple seriously, being an old timer, who owned an Apple II ages ago, but exclusively WindOZE since....and I took a leap and got the HUGE 24" Apple iMac, and DARN that was easy, I was up and running within 15 minutes of opening the box, NO configurations...shees... where is the "fun" in spending hours getting your new computer to work on a network, print, and hook into this and that? Everything just worked!

Then the MacBook Air, I thought, that might be cool too, and I ordered one on day one, and I adore it.

Then the AUTOMATIC backups, I tried, honestly before, but that was such a hassle before, and the day the new Time Capsule, combo router with "N" { super fast } wireless and 500G storage, that would automatically back up the desktop AND air laptop, without me even remembering anything.

So the stores? Can't even get IN one around here, they are jammed from morning to evening.

So, here we are, two years later, and I'm the owner now of THREE iPods, one desktop, two laptops, two routers, tons of FANTASTIC easy to use software for video, productivity, and presentations, all from Apple.

And it STARTED with one FREE iPod.

I've spent $10,000 and would do it all again in a heartbeat. AND...I've talked most of the family, most of my friends, into dabbling with Apple too, and one by one, they too are becoming fanatics.

So...

It IS NOT about the GIZMO, it IS about the SYSTEM, from the delivery and ordering, to free shipping, to georgeous packaging, to EASE of use, POWER to get things done, backup with the GENIUS BAR at the local stores, and the GREATLY expanding ECOSYSTEM they call Apple today.

When the ANAL-ists, "get that" and STOP wetting their beds over this or that GIZMO, and how other companies GIZMO's compete, they might finally see what is going on. But given the near OBSESSION they have with trashing everything apple, and the endless speculation about Job's health...you would think the company would fold instantly if he took a week off for vacation.

This is now a JUGGERNAUGHT, daily ripping into WinDOZE and VISTA crap, and getting stronger and stronger and now the WORLD is going to get a taste of the ecosystem called Apple.

Think for a second. How many CRACKBERRY heads have you seen standing in LINE ALL NIGHT to buy the newest? And that is the NORM over in the Apple world, they have a LOVE for the company, they are ADDICTED to the products.

And THAT is the story that never seems to make it to anything connected with the Street and it's affiliates.

Toni, Toni, Toni?

Research In Motion vs. Apple: The Smartphone Showdown

Fri, 20 Jun 2008 10:32:15 -0400

Oh, one more thing. ALL my apple products are now free. Howzzat you ask?

Started buying around 73, now hold 2600 shrs. So now I make money by loving the products too, and ain't THAT a sweet one?

Apple: My Q3 Earnings Estimates

Thu, 19 Jun 2008 09:05:29 -0400

Andy, this just in.

Use $4 average for movies, that blends in the rentals and the purchased versions.

Apple announced Thursday that customers on its iTunes Store have purchased and downloaded over five billion songs to date.

The digital download service is the number one music retailer in the US, according to the most recent data from NPD Group's MusicWatch survey, and features the largest music catalog with over eight million songs.

Apple also said that iTunes customers are now renting and purchasing over 50,000 movies every day, making iTunes the world's most popular online movie store as well.

In addition to its industry leading eight million songs, iTunes also sports a catalog of over 20,000 TV episodes and over 2,000 films, including over 350 in high definition video.

iTunes features movies from all of the major movie studios including 20th Century Fox, The Walt Disney Studios, Warner Bros., Paramount, Universal Studios Home Entertainment, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM), Lionsgate and New Line Cinema.

Users can rent movies and watch them on their Macs or PCs, all current generation iPods, iPhone and on a widescreen TV with Apple TV. iTunes Store customers can also purchase new movie releases from major film studios and premier independent studios on the same day as their DVD release.

Apple: My Q3 Earnings Estimates

Thu, 19 Jun 2008 07:59:39 -0400

Andy, yes I see them now.

By the way, EXCELLENT job, you are to be commended. Some may quibble { being humans we will } with this or that, but you laid it all out there, and sequentially and methodically touched all the bases.

Frankly, your work here blew 90% of what I've seen passing as "Analysis" right out of the window.

THANK YOU, good work.

Apple: My Q3 Earnings Estimates

Wed, 18 Jun 2008 21:42:53 -0400

What about income from Software Sales?

From iTunes store?

From Apple Care service contracts?

They are just MIA in the above analysis.

Apple Hype Priced In - Stop Trading! (6/9/08)

Fri, 13 Jun 2008 21:47:27 -0400

>>>Motorola and Nokia, please deliver us from unfair practice and mediocre products. <<<

Uh, last year, about this time there WAS NO iPHONE....

So, tell me again how they are the "good guys" and your "white knights?"

Honestly, some people are BORN to be drama queens.

Apple's iPhone 3G: Who Needs Carrier Subsidies?

Thu, 12 Jun 2008 23:41:10 -0400

Isn't it 10 cents a month for a mobile connection in China?

How do you share a dime?

Apple's iPhone 3G: Who Needs Carrier Subsidies?

Thu, 12 Jun 2008 18:46:20 -0400

OK run some additional numbers here:

IF they sell the phone at a $50 discount to the carriers, say $350 and it costs them $125 {a little added parts cost } that gives them a gross margin of 64%, about double the margin on the computer lines.

And that money HITS THE BOTTOM LINE now, instead of being prorated over the 24 months life of the ATT contract as before.

Now we start the GOODIES:

1 - MobileMe, the replacement for .Mac, which is the central hub of the PUSH and SHARE system, annual cost is $99, I would imagine that at LEAST 1/2 of the buyers will opt in on that.

2 - Repair and replacement APPLECARE, if anything goes wrong, for two years they will fix it for free, ANYTHING but abuse. That goes for $70 a unit, say 1/3 opt for that one.

3 - Many of the units will be 16 Gig, not 8 Gig, that adds another 100 bucks, say 1/2 are the upgraded units, that number seems to be what I've seen on the other products, people go bigger, to make the planned obsolescence factor take longer.

4 - Applications store. This is THE SLEEPER, with the unit good for gaming, professional apps, and sharing apps, and apps for this and that all one CLICK away from a purchase, and Apple gets 30% of the revenue for each such purchase. If the average user buys 5 apps a year, at 15 average an app, that is $45 x 0.30 = $13.50.

5 - it is ALSO a movie player, and an media/song player, and most will buy a few movies, rent a few, and purchase some song. I'm ignoring this, as most could most likely do that with an iPod before, BUT many of these will be sold in countries without much Apple presence, they will be net new buyers, but factoring that in is tough to compute, so on IGNORE.

ADD these all up:

1 - Profit per sale, with 1/2 8G and 1/2 16G - $250
2 - Mobile Me, with 1/2 buying in - $050
3 - AppleCare, service contract 1/3 buying - $023
4 - ApplicationStore, see math above - $013

MINIMUM TOTAL for YEAR one of ownership - $336 per unit average

NOW... if they sell 10 million that works out to $3.36Billion and that works out to $3.90 per diluted share!

Given that the street is looking for UNDER $6 per share earnings, this is a pretty impressive JOLT flowing towards the bottom line { lots of factors will influence that, but this is a down and dirty looksee }

AND....

AND....

The "Halo Effect" of 70 nations with hands on OS X, the superior operating system, and this will GOOSE the rest of the system hard too. I suspect that the users will see the obvious benefits of this well designed, well executed system, and the sales of Macs, both lap and desk will experience a QUICK and persuasive move in places that had never produced any sales whatsoever.

This is NOT a phone guys, this is a PLATFORM, and like the iPod, it will spawn off software, periperals, third party apps {20,000 in the pipeline already according to some } and be a PARADIGM CHANGER.

{ if anyone catches any mistakes on my math or thinking, PLEASE let me know, and remember I'm doing this off the top of my head here, thinking out loud as I type }

Will Apple's Second Generation iPhone Buck the Trend?

Thu, 12 Jun 2008 16:25:17 -0400

It ain't "no telephone" .... D'oh.

It is a HANDHELD computer, browser, game machine, GPS unit, MP3 player, Movie Player, PDA...

Comparing this to a TELEPHONE is like saying the early desktop computers were GREAT adding machines, since VISICALC was the first viable application.

Come on guys, STOP thinking like you dads dad, and OPEN UP here, God gave you BRAINS for using, not for comparing RED THIS TO BROWN THAT's.

Palm Girds for a Smartphone Comeback

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 18:12:51 -0400

>>>I don't know what would be involved in getting eight years's worth of Palm history transferred seamlessly into an iPhone, and I'd rather not find out if I don't have to!<<<

I guess I was wrong then...

One vote for DINOSAURS, time to buy now!

Yes, I did forget that some people are "Legacy Lovers" and are still using DOS.

{ sorry, couldn't resist the cheap shot...me bad. }

I have a wonderful DELL Axim, complete with a few cases, and all the accessories in GREAT shape if anyone wants a deal. Email me.

eBay App Coming to iPhone

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 17:28:02 -0400

Yawn.

If you can run Safari, which the OLD one did just fine, you got EBAY already.

I don't see the Ebay thing as anything more than a niche for the junkies that love to sell and buy used baseball cards.

What do you need a DEDICATED app, to do what you can do today, that works fine, and adds really nothing to the process?

Palm Girds for a Smartphone Comeback

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 17:25:36 -0400

NO OS X

NO groupies

NO iTunes Store

NO physical Stores

NO FUTURE

It AIN'T THE GIZMO that sells Apple, it is the EXPERIENCE and the SYSTEM and the CODDLE THE CUSTOMER environment.

Heck, ALL along, the GIzmo's of the other guys were every bit as good, often better.

It is the SYNGERY, of the panache, cool factor, and sheer blinding speed of innovation, packaged up like a little Lamborghi that you actually can afford.

Palm is playing catchup going 75MPH now, but the train it is chasing just accelerated from 125MPH to 150MPH with the 3G phone now being released in SEVENTY countries, and 20,000 APPS in the pipeline including TOM TOM and the others to make that thing into a FULL PLATFORM of media, phone, music, games, enterprise, PDA, and bottle opener.

3G iPhone Going For Market Share

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 11:59:34 -0400

Why do you ASSUME that the data plan { $30 } OR the phone plan { the remainder } will be the same in developing countries?

You might want to know, ATT and the USA are not the entire enchilada in this here smörgåsbord that Apple is setting out for consumption.

Each carrier is free to set whatever phone and data plan or rates they think is appropriate for any market they are serving.