TanToday

A Real iPhone Challenger - Barron's

Actually this is a good thing, really.

The more the "hounds" are chasing Apple, the more the boyz in Cupertino have to ACCELERATE things.

If they lose a few sales to the "hounds' GREAT, make Jobs and Ives SWEAT a little I say!

{ disclosure: long 2600 shrs AAPL }

Apple's iPhone 3G: Who Needs Carrier Subsidies?

Isn't it 10 cents a month for a mobile connection in China?

How do you share a dime?

Apple's iPhone 3G: Who Needs Carrier Subsidies?

OK run some additional numbers here:

IF they sell the phone at a $50 discount to the carriers, say $350 and it costs them $125 {a little added parts cost } that gives them a gross margin of 64%, about double the margin on the computer lines.

And that money HITS THE BOTTOM LINE now, instead of being prorated over the 24 months life of the ATT contract as before.

Now we start the GOODIES:

1 - MobileMe, the replacement for .Mac, which is the central hub of the PUSH and SHARE system, annual cost is $99, I would imagine that at LEAST 1/2 of the buyers will opt in on that.

2 - Repair and replacement APPLECARE, if anything goes wrong, for two years they will fix it for free, ANYTHING but abuse. That goes for $70 a unit, say 1/3 opt for that one.

3 - Many of the units will be 16 Gig, not 8 Gig, that adds another 100 bucks, say 1/2 are the upgraded units, that number seems to be what I've seen on the other products, people go bigger, to make the planned obsolescence factor take longer.

4 - Applications store. This is THE SLEEPER, with the unit good for gaming, professional apps, and sharing apps, and apps for this and that all one CLICK away from a purchase, and Apple gets 30% of the revenue for each such purchase. If the average user buys 5 apps a year, at 15 average an app, that is $45 x 0.30 = $13.50.

5 - it is ALSO a movie player, and an media/song player, and most will buy a few movies, rent a few, and purchase some song. I'm ignoring this, as most could most likely do that with an iPod before, BUT many of these will be sold in countries without much Apple presence, they will be net new buyers, but factoring that in is tough to compute, so on IGNORE.

ADD these all up:

1 - Profit per sale, with 1/2 8G and 1/2 16G - $250
2 - Mobile Me, with 1/2 buying in - $050
3 - AppleCare, service contract 1/3 buying - $023
4 - ApplicationStore, see math above - $013

MINIMUM TOTAL for YEAR one of ownership - $336 per unit average

NOW... if they sell 10 million that works out to $3.36Billion and that works out to $3.90 per diluted share!

Given that the street is looking for UNDER $6 per share earnings, this is a pretty impressive JOLT flowing towards the bottom line { lots of factors will influence that, but this is a down and dirty looksee }

AND....

AND....

The "Halo Effect" of 70 nations with hands on OS X, the superior operating system, and this will GOOSE the rest of the system hard too. I suspect that the users will see the obvious benefits of this well designed, well executed system, and the sales of Macs, both lap and desk will experience a QUICK and persuasive move in places that had never produced any sales whatsoever.

This is NOT a phone guys, this is a PLATFORM, and like the iPod, it will spawn off software, periperals, third party apps {20,000 in the pipeline already according to some } and be a PARADIGM CHANGER.

{ if anyone catches any mistakes on my math or thinking, PLEASE let me know, and remember I'm doing this off the top of my head here, thinking out loud as I type }

Cell-Tower Fatalities: 3G iPhones at Any Price?

I believe they invented SAFETY harnesses a few DECADES ago.

www.ussafetyequipment....

Maybe the frazzled workers find them uncomfortable, I know I would...but parachutes are bulky and awkward too, but when you NEED one, it is certainly nice to have one on.

HINT.

AT&T Subsidy of Apple's iPhone Would Have Dramatic Effect - Bernstein

AGAIN.

Everyone looks at the "nits" counting this segment, vs that segment.

It is *THE SYNERGISTIC SYSTEM©™" that makes this puppy so adorable. Forget this or that, it is the "BORG EFFECT©™" at work here, everything is ASSIMULATED, added to the total, the stores feed the product, the iPhone feeds the system, the iPod feeds the system, the OX feeds the system, and EVERYTHING works, works on the first try, works together, and the INTERFACE to everything is so close, that you learn ONE, you have basically learned them all.

I have been a TECH NUT for 30years now, and have seen them all come and go, but I have NEVER EVER seen RABID slavish adoring passionate opinionated FANBOYS and GALS as deeply in love with, and committed TO the APPLEBORG©™ intake system. I mean, what other company has people standing in LINE all night long to buy whatever new product is coming out? Who gets the amount of pre-release HYPE for anything and everything that AAPL does, sure every now and then, a "hottie" gets legs, that is the EXCEPTION but for this crowd, they follow these things like "Parrotheads" with Jimmie Buffet tours.

This is like a snowball rolling down a hill now, every few feet it rolls, it gathers up more mass, more momentum, and becomes more and more formidable.

Just about the only thing that could put the Kabosh on this now, is the early demise of one skinny turtlenecked aging geek.

{ disclosure, long 2,000 shrs }