delta 777's Comments

How to Fix the Fed - A Lesson from AIG

Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:45:45 -0500

Article I Section 8 of the US Constitution specifically assigns to Congress the power:

To borrow money on the credit of the United States...

To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures...

There is no Constitutional provision that these powers may be delegated in any form to the FED

7 Dividend Stocks to Prove Buy-and-Hold Isn't Dead

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 12:11:07 -0500

it is sort of an interesting concept that current flash trading programs are essentially immaterial to long term buy and hold investing-kind of like the concept that if the bath water is running, the tub will eventually be full, regardless whether the drain is left open. This may somewhat persuade the foolish so long as the fill rate exceeds the drain rate, but falls apart totally when WS Greed applies their suction pump to the drain, as in the current economic debacle. This flash trading relentless drain of money from the overall market devastates the profitablity of long term holding of good companies with the same certainty that it devastates short term private traders.

Falling Dollar: Finally Front-Page News

Fri, 09 Oct 2009 12:52:40 -0400

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...

Bretton Woods established an international monetary system tied to gold.
Following WWII, US had the most stable currency which became the world's reserve currency. In 1971 the US unilaterally terminated gold convertibility thereby changing the dollar from a specie currency to a fiat currency. nonetheless still remaining as the accepted reserve currency because of the balkanization and instability of other nations and currencies.
This placed the US in the unique position of being able to simply print money (backed by "full faith and credit") to cover its debts.
The world has since changed--currently. other nations, particularly the EU and China. "BRIC", are showing enough political and economic strength to make their currencies strong enough to be considered for an international "market basket" reserve currency.
It is no surprise that world nations will no longer put up with the current US reserve currency situation.
Nor should they.
The more telling question is what specific tactic large creditor nations (particularly China) will employ to carefully bail out of the dollar and convert to a more stable and acceptable form of internal reserve currency without overly devaluating their dollar denominated assets.
It appears to me that the day of reckoning for the world US dollar is very much upon us.

Bloomberg Reports Extreme Recession: I'm Shocked

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 13:45:56 -0400

Cash for clunkers is hardly a fair or equitable use of taxpayer dollars-people usually own clunkers for two reasons: either they are too poor to buy a better car (and therefore are too poor to buy an new car), or-if they are wealthy- they have kept the clunker as a secondary back-up car because it was worthless to sell or trade it in. Cash for clunkers selectively rewards the second group, while providing no benefit for those owners who were either prudent or sufficiently conscientious to dispose of a clunker as soon as possible. A possible third group: those who are wealthy enough to have given/sold their clunker to their kids, and now are wealthy enough to arrange an upgrade.
In all cases, despite the immediate gratification boon this gives to auto makers, this program will quickly reflect in future lower auto purchases.
It is also obvious from actual sales information that, in general, the new vehicles purchased under this program are far from being true economy cars.
Cash for Clunkers constitutes investment of taxpayer dollars to a select few individuals for consumable items; as opposed to using this taxpayer money to create infrastructure that will be of lasting benefit to the taxpayer that pays for it. (in addition to the obvious immediate creation of broad-based jobs)

On Aug 02 12:37 PM mushrumps wrote:

> Well, I am "disgustipated" with the clunkers program: 1) merely takes
> from future sales; 2) subsidizes the few who can afford to buy a
> new car with taxes and higher costs on those who cannot; 3) worst
> of all, deprives tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of potential buyers
> of serviceable transportation for $500 or so (think pizza, paper
> delivery people, etc.!)

Durable Goods Report: May vs. June Spin Cycle

Thu, 30 Jul 2009 13:14:38 -0400

your poignant statement:

"What struck me...... is that clear manipulation and fungible number play is right now being accepted..."

Pretty much sums up the sorry state of current ethics in Finance.

Hoping Against Hope for Wyeth / Elan Alzheimer Dug

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 13:58:06 -0400

"Human beings are the only animals that really seem to get Alzheimer's, and that's made it a ferocious therapeutic area to work in"
perhaps not quite true--it appears that vervet monkeys also develop a condition as they get old that is very close to a human form of Alzheimer's. This is species specific, as rhesus monkeys do not develop this. Vervets have some other characteristics that are particularly relevant to humans.
www.dana.org/news/feat...
pin.primate.wisc.edu/f... (see special notes sections)

Why Obama's Economic Policies Are Failing

Tue, 14 Jul 2009 12:30:00 -0400

fascinating how you discuss the causes of bubble/bust/recession without mention of of CDOs/SIVs/credit default swaps and other assorted off-the-books financial instruments

J&J Comes Riding to Elan's Rescue

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:44:06 -0400

Elan has been suffering a horrible partnership in Tysabri with Biogen, who may have been sandbagging Tysabri to promote their competing drug Avonex, meanwhile salivating at the prospect of being able to make a hostile move to buy Elan's interest in Tysabri for pennies, against a very weak Elan in 2010 when standoff clauses in their partnership expire.
Wyeth/AHP is potentially also a wolf in sheeps clothing with respect to their bapineuzumab partnership with Elan (anyone remember Immunex?-R.I.P.) and when Pfizer acquires Wyeth, this cabal can not be anticipated to behave like angels in their partnership behavior
Even more significant than the much needed direct financial boost that Elan has been needing to set up, JNJ has both sufficient clout and a big enough legal department to deal with the pack of hyenas that have been circling to pick Elan's bones as well as an excellent background to insure that bapineuzumab will be properly guidedto market, even though they do not (nominally) have control of this drug. The JNJ/Elan arrangement also is a great protection of other Elan pipeline drugs against the type of manipulation that Tysabri has suffered at the hands of Biogen. JNJ has a pretty good rep as an ethical outfit.
Somewhat disturbing is key scientists Selkoe and Bloom stepping down from the Elan Board of Directors.

Where Are the Jobs?

Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:19:13 -0400

a lot of "working" folks are now on 5%-10% cuts in base pay in addition to mandatory unpaid furloughs--32 hour weeks.
Very hard on workers, and employers that want to survive have no other choices available to retain key employees.

Roubini Just Won't Turn Positive on the Economy

Thu, 25 Jun 2009 13:08:50 -0400

it looks like we will have a wonderful holiday season this year, judging from all the merchandise that is now being ordered for the season???Just think, the retailers will be able to close up their shops well before the season, and take their holidays early to go shopping??? Main streeters without jobs will also have so much extra time on their hands that they will just spend it shopping till they drop???and foreclosures that are now on hold will remain on hold??? and of course banks will be able to completely repay borrowed money and cover their written-down ass ets, and exotic derivative problems will have disappeared.

Welcome to Salvation (aka Mark to Myth)

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 03:57:34 -0400

assets based on home valuation should be based- not on last sale of that particular home- but on current sale of comps in the neighborhood--such realistic valuation for the asset should be in in perfect accord with what the bank can demonstrate it is currently willing and able to loan on purchase of that home to a person with reasonable credit. Such valuation must include neighborhood foreclosure valuations, because these valuations are the current reality ....any competent real estate appraiser can easily come up with accurate valuation based on comps--they do it every day---and banks lend on this basis.
ANY OTHER METHOD IS ONE BIG LIE.

On Apr 06 10:18 AM petyaczar wrote:

> Mark 2 Market should actually be called our for what it is
> Mark to Model where the model is based on the last sale
> Ergo M2M is really mark to lasat sale.
>
> Mark to Market is beyond Stupid. Its a theoretical construct that
> requires a willing owner (Unwilling seller) to mark down his assets
> to the point that a disinterested (unwilling potential buyer) might
> consider buying the asset.
>
> Show me where - in the real world - An willing owner/unwilling seller
> is required to mark down assets to the point where an unwilling buyer
> might consider a purchase of said assets.
>
> Only in Bizarro World. Never confuse accounting with reality.

>
> Dump Mark to Market as they did in the 1930's when they determined
> Mark to Market contributed greatly to the Great Depression as it
> sets up a cyclical feedback loop, the worse things get, the greater
> the mark downs and so the worse things get.
>
> Destroy Sarbanes/Oaxley, get rid of FASB 157.
> Reinstate Glass Steagall ACT separating commercial and iinvestment
> banks
> Reinstate the uptick rule on short sales
> Up margin requirements on commodities trading to 50%
> GET ALL POLITICIANS out of attempting to run U.S. companies.
> Make it illegal for politicians to interefere with U.S. copmany operations.
>
>
> IMO

Scary Numbers

Sat, 21 Feb 2009 13:29:29 -0500

kind of like a crowd eagerly attending a nascar race----there to watch the crashes even more than watching for who wins

Who Is the Worst Biotech CEO?

Sun, 14 Dec 2008 13:17:00 -0500

recognition and acceptance Fuersteins yellow journalism and narcissism in considering himself the Nobel Committee of biotech management evaluation is extremely dangerous, whereby on the basis of promulgation of one person's irresponsible voice by an increasingly rabid media, this can exert a substantial and disproportionate effect on an equity of the nature that should even warrant criminal investigation.

Likewise, you should be thoroughly ashamed of yourself for promulgating this kind charade.....it speaks to your own competence.

eBay Still Hazy

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 10:58:37 -0400

as an ebay buyer of many years and many dollars, I can attest that the site has been rapidly deteriorating...fewer antique items of quality, better sites are around for used stuff, and Amazon and other Google search suppliers far better for new items (and used), without the quality questions and uncertainty of what you may end up with ebay purchases....I still use it as a useful source but perhaps only 10% of former purchase volume.......(hope ebay has a strong enough porn backbone for survival??)

Beware of Sending Fannie and Freddie Stock to Zero

Sun, 13 Jul 2008 12:53:56 -0400

delta 7777

link does not post--for thoughtful article, Google:

market ticker denninger fannie freddie

Beware of Sending Fannie and Freddie Stock to Zero

Sun, 13 Jul 2008 12:47:38 -0400

see:

market-ticker.denninge...

Beware of Sending Fannie and Freddie Stock to Zero

Sun, 13 Jul 2008 12:21:44 -0400

Freddie&Fannie into receivership????????
can you spell...b.a.n.a.n.a......
Hugo Chavez would get a real kick out of this one----
nationalize the losers, not the winners???
(we don't really grow enough bananas)

Are American Companies Now Up For Grabs?

Sun, 13 Jul 2008 12:09:16 -0400

Back in the Vietnamese war era, Ho Chih Minh regarded opium and cocaine as wonderful weapons.....you coud sell them to enemy troops and actually get a country to pay you for this weapon that would efficiently and insidiously destroy the enemy.........

Somewhat in the same vein....there is very good reason for middle eastern oil countries to not foment war against the US--having learned from the Chinese that it is far simpler to take your time and simply buy it up with its own money at a liesurely pace (and receive thanks for doing so)....

Greenspan, Please, Retire Already!

Sun, 29 Jun 2008 13:44:00 -0400

Is Greenspan the one responsible for regulatory changes that allowed investment banks to enter and play essentially criminal games with the mortgage market by devising CDOs, SIVs, and other shady financial strategies that were not available to depository banks???......or has he now become the red herring whipping boy "chosen one" ??????.....I think it appropriate to look a bit deeper and properly ascertain those entities working assiduously at shifting blame before jumping on to this bandwagon....there are ongoing machinations and criminal coverups afoot here that will make Enron look like amateur hour.

Elan, Wyeth Take an Inside-Out Approach to Alzheimer's Vaccine

Sun, 15 Jun 2008 23:54:10 -0400

jarcom--you say "An alzheimer vacine....simply panovian. AHP used to be smarter than to go for such stuff."-----are you perhaps suggesting that AHP was "smarter" in its fen/phen days????

Elan, Wyeth Take an Inside-Out Approach to Alzheimer's Vaccine

Sun, 15 Jun 2008 14:01:05 -0400

again, Here Derek seems to share a common confusion with respect to Elan's Alzheimer's pipeline....Right now their prime focus is on an antibody (not a vaccine) therapy identified as AAB-001 (Bapineuzimab), which anticipates important PII result announcement very soon, and full PII info at ICAD on July 30..PIII for AAB-001 has already started... Although AAB-001 is an immunologic approach, it is distinctly different and not to be confused with ACC-001 which is an antigen, or vaccine.. Elan has several other extremely promising Alzheimer's drugs in its pipeline, as well as the highly effective multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri....Elan is primarily a research biotech, and commonly partners with companies better equipped for large scale manufacturing. (which arrangementsd also, because of careful poison pill agreements, protect against easy hostile take-over)....There is a very active InvestorVillage message board with quite a few brilliant and very knowledgeable posters on Elan (significant posts can be roughly presorted based based on number of recs, then following the thread): www.investorvillage.co...

Microsoft's Ballmer Kills Print

Sat, 07 Jun 2008 13:30:38 -0400

Ballmer's vision of the printed word only reflects the mindset of someone deluded enough to want to buy Yahoo.....(Yahoo is a backwards-thinking corporate mess only concerned with bonuses and corporat peck order squabbling, as anyone knowing anyone who has worked there is totally aware)...
sure there will be a fallout in the printed world.....and I suspect there will be a lot more pictures and fewer words as digital cameras make pictures cheaper and decline in education and demand for anything more than sound bite makes serious journalism scarcer....even now, photography has been (with few exceptions)turning into the sorting of stochastic images as opposed to the clarity and thoughtful selectivity demanded by the slower and far more expensive constraints imposed by the halide image as practiced by Eisenstadt, Cartier-Bresson, David Douglas Duncan, Ansel Adams, Dorothea Lange, and their generation and forbears..although the net is a truly wonderful development in the advancement of communication and information distribution, it has not really found a replacement for the photojournalism lost with LIFE magazine, and is not inherently capable of doing so...fundamentally the intrinsic characteristics of what might be termed spirit and soul of the net is not of the same cloth as of the printed word.....
It is a tragic loss to print that newspapers no longer can (or have not yet learned to) generate the resources absolutely necessary to support the extensive research staff needed to produce thought provoking reflective journalism..at some point, hopefully as soon as possible, there be a backlash to mass shallowness, (don't hold your breath quite yet) and there will be a stable niche for thoughtful printed word....
The same phemomenon as newspapers are experiencing has already happened in the world of science--two generations ago primary scientific literature consisted of books by a single author (possibly with one or two close collaborators) who really understood, and could explain with absolute command and clarity, the overall broad aspects of his field .....the scientific "book" has now devolved almost exclusively into sound bite compilations of proliferating publish-or-perish symposia...meaningfuln... has largely fallen prey to "news"..it is bit hard to envision a Newton writing "Principia", or Laplace writing "la Mecanique Celeste" in this day and age......

The Amazin' Ragin' Housing Contagion

Sat, 07 Jun 2008 12:28:25 -0400

<<<<<&l... remarriage or just stay married-there must have been something you liked about them,>>>>&...

there is a great Johnnie Taylor song
with a much sounder explanation
based on sound economic theory

----"It's cheaper to keep her"-----

eBay's Looming Identity Crisis

Wed, 04 Jun 2008 15:24:51 -0400

ebay scams have taken over, which can get very costly--lack of bidder identification and feedback changes have reduced buyer confidence....in general it is no longer worth the cost and hassle for either buyer or seller....

Order Backlogs Are Overrated on Wall Street

Mon, 02 Jun 2008 10:46:25 -0400

the only way for any airline to remain competitive is to replace their heavy fuel inefficient planes with lighter ones using titanium and carbon fiber...... a twenty percent fuel efficiency gain is a compelling reason for new orders, so I would not worry too much about cancellations of manufacturing backlog.....

Housing Affordability Index: Surprise, It's a Buyer's Market

Fri, 30 May 2008 12:14:59 -0400

the real question is not whether it is a buyer's or a seller's market, but whether it is advisable at all to buy at this time, or to wait things out a bit. The switch point from buyer to seller mart will depend on a decision to buy becoming obvious based on the balance between a deteriorating housing price and an increasing interest rate. Realistically, home pricing will have to come more rationally in line with rental costs, adjusted of course for factors such as deductibility, etc. It is really quite irrational to pay a lot of money to purchase an ongoing negative cash flow, regardless of how strong one's ego is.

Different Views on Housing Supply

Fri, 30 May 2008 10:51:00 -0400

there is another large group of "sellers??" who bought a home for hundreds of thousands of dollars more than current valuation and deliberately choose to walk away rather than be stuck with a vastly overpriced negative cash flow, regardless whether they are actually able to pay the mortgage or not, and regardless of the effect on their credit rating. This group also includes speculators who purchased multiple properties to flip. It doesn't require a lot of financial smarts to know that it is best to walk away from this type of loss--if you still have cash, you can be sure that you can buy again at a lower price. It would be of interest to know how large a percentage this walk-away sector is.

Microsoft/Yahoo Drama and Investing in Google

Sun, 04 May 2008 13:51:16 -0400

Yahoo again exhibits the same mentality
...as when they refused to consider the ideas of Brin&Co
...as when they revised their finance message board format
...Again shows that involvement in a mismanaged company is a guaranteed loser...

Wal-Mart: Another 20%-40% Upside in Store

Wed, 16 Apr 2008 14:32:19 -0400

any thoughts with respect forseeable higher Walmart supply costs due to declining dollar??

Ballmer to Yahoo: Feudalism Is Dead

Wed, 09 Apr 2008 12:34:42 -0400

Whatever the price is, I can't see where delay is of any help to either company, in fact it is costly to both..
I suspect that if Yahoo had accepted Microsoft's initial offer, (or had made an immediate firm and reasonable small counteroffer) the time value would have made up for any sweetening of the offer that might be reasonably expected.
Yahoo's pimping itself out to other "clients" certainly did not strengthen their bargaining position.
The current economic situation is not one that favors long and drawn out negotiations.
Ultimately if Microsoft still sees it in their best interests to acquire Yahoo, they will prevail, and at Microsoft's price.
Yahoo has not been known for brilliant decisionmaking at the highest level...witness the origins of Google....