Mark from Reston

Why Mortgage Modifications Have Failed

Would like to hear more about your conversations with the banking regulators. Like why didn't they see the problems with the pay option ARMs mortgages out of BankUnited, Downey, WaMu, IndyMac and Golden West (Wachovia) until all of these institutions failed. When all of these institutions' originations were almost 100% pay option ARMs as early as 2005 and 2006, didn't the regulators think that there could be a problem down the road or at least see what this type of mortgage was doing to home and condo prices in California, Las Vegas and Miami? How crazy was it to let someone finance 125% of the purchase price of a house and then not expect all these mortgages to blow up and take the banks and the housing market with them.

Markets Suffer Through More Lies and Statistics

Wasn't it Mark Twain, not Churchill, who uttered the phrase about lies and statistics?

Flag Pattern: Comparison to 2003 Shows Prices Could Grind Higher

I'm fascinated by technical analysis within the larger historical context. From your charts above, it looks to me like the rally in 2003 off the bottom in March and broke through the 200 ma only to retreat to support at 850. Then it looks like there were several runs at the 200 ma in April, including what looked like a pattern of lower highs. It wasn't until it moved through 875 (was that resistance there from the Nov - Dec period?) and cleared 900 that it really took off before going sideway during the Jun to Sept period. So does that mean we come back all the way to 800 (or even 750) where there may be support before we start a new assault on the 200 ma? Seems to me in 2003 there were several attempts to break through the 200 ma on the second move up (which might have created plenty of doubt as to whether the move was for real). Maybe that means the break through will be when the 200 ma declines to 900 and we finally go through it and stay above it. Not to complicate matters, but what was the economy doing during this time in 2003 versus what we can expect in the next few months?