techzone12's Comments

Should Bernanke Be Reappointed?

Mon, 27 Jul 2009 14:40:58 -0400

No. He was caught sleeping on the wheel!

Why the Oil Market Favors the Deepwater Subsector

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:44:20 -0400

I am long PBR. If you want to be rich, jump on the PBR bandwagon.
The oil sector looks shaky right now, with potential for further short term decline. But long term, I think companies like PBR have huge potential. RIG is also a good play. See you in a year or two!

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 14:02:24 -0400

It's called a sucker's rally, because it sucks you in...
What we are witnessing is the transfer of debt from the big banks' balance sheets to the taxpayer. So all of a sudden, the banks are making record "profit"!. Congrats!. It's time to distribute new bonuses!. Enjoy the ride!

The U.S. Banking System's Terrifying Balance Sheet

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 11:24:43 -0400

I wonder what would happen if all these trillions were funneled to the taxpayer instead!!.

On Apr 08 08:54 AM Lilguy wrote:

> ...and, so, remind again: Why is this financial system worth saving
> if it is essentially bankrupt? Why are these banks "too big to fail"
> if, as it appears, they have already? Why are we putting America
> in such deep hock to save these frauds and fools?
>
> I would note that, just last week (3/31), Bloomberg had an article
> detailing all the measures of the US Government to stimulate the
> economy. The programs together total commitments of $12.8 trillion.
> Wall Street's share of that--as reflected in Mr. Durden's article
> & Mr. Salmon's commentary--is some $9.3 trillion. Main Street's
> share--money for the other 300 million of us--is a mere $1.3 trillion
> while the USG has set aside $2.5 trillion to cover the bad bets of
> the GSEs and likely funding needs of the FDIC. (Nothing like covering
> the bad debt of the USG with more debt guaranteed by the "full faith
> and credit" of the USG!)
>
> Does any of that seem as wrong-headed to the rest of you as it does
> to me? What about the 5 million newly unemployed since the recession
> began? What about the 48,000 business failures last year--up from
> 28,000 in 2007--and the projected 62,000 such failures this year?
> What about the projected 1.5 million personal bankruptcies this year?
> ...and that doesn't even touch the massive damage to household wealth
> from decimated house values, depleted 401Ks, and overwhelming debt.
>
>
> What the hell is the Administration (& its predecessor) and the
> US Congress doing??

Is the Populist Mob Right?

Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:46:32 -0400

To get to the source of the problem, just look at how we elect politicians. Most of the politicians in Washington have ties with special interest groups. It's the traditional "pay to play" scheme. It's what called "lobbying". Does anyone remember Abramoff? How about Madoff (he ran his scheme for 20 years, and he was the head of Nasdaq at some point)?

That's why they are bailing out the banks and not the people. Then they would use scare tactics (anyone one remembers the scare tactics that Bush used to wage war on Iraq!). They will tell the average Joe that he will loose his job, if they don't bailout the banks. They will tell him that the bonuses to the crooks are a necessary evil to get the job done.

That's why I argue that this crisis is more political than being economical. Both republicans and Dems are responsible. So far, the change that Obama has promised did not materialize. Because he has "advisors" telling him that he needs to be careful as to "not rock the boat".

The solution is really simple: "Don't Let the fox guard the henhouse"

Exclusive: Big Banks' Recent Profitability Due to AIG Scam?

Mon, 30 Mar 2009 11:48:03 -0400

As Rahm Emanuel put it down, "a crisis is a terrible thing to waste". Scammers are still out there looking for new "opportunities".
I got news for them. I think they have milked the cow too much. Now the cow is on the brink!

10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom

Thu, 26 Mar 2009 13:56:36 -0400

I got out of the market at the end of 2007, when the professionals were saying to “stay the course”. I am still on the side line. Yes I have missed the recent 20% rally, and I don't feel bad about it. My philosophy is to never try to hunt for the bottom. Because if it is NOT the true bottom then there is a good chance that I will loose my shirt in the process.

I don't know if this is the bottom. There is one reason however why I think that there is a long way to go yet. That reason is that the government is as corrupt as Wall Street. Special Interest groups are still ruling the country. The "pay to play" is still alive and well. The AIG scandal is a prime example. And yes Geithner turned a blind eye to AIG bonuses.

Why do you think that the government stood still, while Madoff was running his giant Ponze scheme for over 20 years? Is it because of the lack of laws? Or is it maybe because he belongs to a special interest group, which is considered untouchable.

China Wants to Ditch the Dollar

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 13:06:52 -0400

Forget about China, how about the US taxpayer?
Isn't it that once inflation starts to hit, people will become poorer, because the dollar will have less buying power. Which means people will be less likely to spend. Which in turn means that every thing will come to a halt!

The Geithner Plan FAQ

Mon, 23 Mar 2009 10:07:34 -0400

Geithner, who is a "tax evader", is now in charge of the treasury. Way to go poeple. You are in safe hands!!

On Mar 22 09:40 AM the ilster wrote:

> These so called toxic assets will most likely never recover and if
> the did it would be 10-15 years from now. Stop bailing out the fucking
> banks already. Geez!!!!. Let everyone take a loss and lets start
> over. I am getting IRATE!!!!!! We are watching the looting of the
> US Treasury to save a fiat monetary system that is destined to fail.
> Start buying commodities Inflation is on is way. This article in
> Rolling stone is a MUST read.
> www.rollingstone.com/p...

How to Know a Bottom When You Don't See One

Wed, 11 Mar 2009 13:56:54 -0400

Why don't we just admit that we don't know.. no one has a crystal ball. Only God Knows what the future holds..
I can guarnatee you one thing. When the market reaches the true bottom, most people will miss it. Most people will be taken by surprise, including me.

I am not ready to take the plung yet however, even though I have been out of the market since november of 2007. I keep my eyes on the macro economic picture. For now, the fact that we still have a lot of uncertainties, make it very risky to invest. We still do not know what the banks are hiding. We also know that the foreclosure crisis is growing. So for now I have decided to continue to stay on the side line, but ready to enter with maybe 10% of cash. I will keep you posted :)

When Unemployment Peaks, The Bottom Should Follow

Fri, 06 Mar 2009 15:16:57 -0500

Past history is not a guarantee of future performance! No one knows when we are going to hit bottom. This is especially true, when you have a lot of uncertainties. I have successfully avoided the carnage by staying away from the market since end of 2007. In my opinion, two things need to happen before we can start seeing recovery:
1. Banks need to come clean 2. We need to bring foreclosures under control.

Is the Market Going Lower? Silly Question!

Tue, 03 Mar 2009 17:22:55 -0500

I agree that "It takes years to build wealth". And If I may add, "it takes seconds to destroy it". If you have money that is not yours, or you don't care about, then may be you can "stay the course"! And in the process, you might get "very rich". But that's not very different from gambling.

I have listened to my own gut and stayed out since November of 2007.
No one can predict the future, but we can at least try to minimize the damage. It is called "risk management". For me the risk of loosing was a lot higher than winning. So simply, I decided to play defense for a while. I will be returning, when the economic climate shifts. Two or three things need to happen (in my opinion): 1. The Banks need to come clean. 2.We need to fix the way politicians get elected, so they would serve the interest of the American People, and not the special interest groups. 3. We need to fix the foreclosure crisis. But that's a tall order!

The New Unwind

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 14:18:44 -0500

The average Joe is not exactly responsible for this crisis. He was basically used. The banks encouraged people to take loans that they could not afford. And who doesn't like easy money? Who doesn't dream about becoming rich one day?
Meanwhile the government (and the politicians) stood by and did nothing. Why? because they can not bite the hand that feeds them. Some people got rich in the process (Madoff anyone!). Meanwhile things went full circle, and the "average Joe" is the one who ended up picking up the bill!

When Warren Buffett Speaks, It's Still Worth Listening

Fri, 27 Feb 2009 13:57:39 -0500

Buffett is someone that I admire. He inspires me, but I don't follow his steps blindly. I have been hearing him saying it's time to buy (for a while now), but I was not convinced. So I stayed out (I stayed completely out since December of 2007).

I know the paradigm is that no body can time the market, but that does not stop me from trying anyway!. I am not trying to perfectly time the market by the way, I am just playing some defense to avoid being slaughtered in this market. It's called risk management.
I believe that the momentum is still pointing downward. But in my opinion, the climate has to shift first, before we can see some sustained growth. To get a remedy, you need to treat the disease (which is foreclosures) and not "just" deal with the symptoms.

How to Fix eBay

Tue, 10 Feb 2009 13:18:14 -0500

I still make money on Ebay, but not like I used to. I had a plan to increase the volume, but the plan got somewhat derailed. I am now not sure if the time I invest in the Ebay thing is actually worth it (I have a full time job). First the higher fees by the ebay/paypal, and then the higher shipping cost by USPS. If you add up the numbers, it does not look very appealing (to put in the effort).

On Feb 10 12:01 PM Patricia013 wrote:

> Great article!! One of the few I totally agree with. I think veteran
> sellers all know most of the points you brought up and in particular
> patching up seller's broken trust. It either has to happen soon or
> Ebay will simply keep declining...it will eventually dwindle down
> into something unrecognizable and will be scooped up by another company.
> Sellers have proved they are not giving up on spreading the word
> of what Ebay has become and it is showing in Ebay's dismal sell-thru
> rate and lack of buyers. Management is so blind that about all one
> can do at his point is replace them. The idea of forcing Ebay to
> look and act like a cheap Amazon clone was a wacky one at best. Everyone
> hates imitation! I believe the staunchest business people knew it
> would never work....and it isn't working and is getting progressively
> worse.
>
> At this point Ebay may never recoop the loss it is suffering from
> the mismanagement of its sellers. It has shown nothing but rudeness
> and arrogance toward sellers. Instead of providing good service for
> them and helping them make sales it has provided a hostile environment
> and a take it or leave it attitude! This is unparalled in the businessworld!!
> NO large business that depends on its customers kicks them around
> the way Ebay does. Ebay is either gonna have to "get it" and get
> it quick or they are rightly and deservedly doomed! This first quarter
> will tell the tale...if they decline again they can no longer hide
> behind the economy...especially if other online sales are up!

>
> Wonderful article... can I vote for you as the new Ebay CEO ;-)

How to Fix eBay

Tue, 10 Feb 2009 12:11:57 -0500

I am a seller at Ebay. And I can tell you that there is 2 major problems that need immediate attention:
1. Fees are too high for the average seller. Although I am a small seller, I could potentially double and triple the volume, if the fees are lowered.
2. The feedback process is heavily in favor of the buyer. The buyer knows it and they take full advantage of it. There needs to be a mechanism, where the buyer is not allowed to leave negative feedback, just because he/she feels like doing so. In one instance, an item I shipped went to the wrong address, because the buyer reloacted (and never changed his address in paypal). Then he wanted me to refund his money, which I did (had no choice). I have a 100% pos feedback, but still some buyer are hard to deal with, and they just waste my time. The time that I can spend on listing more items, is consumed trying to deal with difficult buyers. Sure there are bad sellers (that need to be penalized), but also there are bad buyers also who abuse the system.

Obama's Economic Fix

Tue, 10 Feb 2009 10:23:24 -0500

Crisis for some politicians (like Rahm Israel Emanuel) and their inner circle is a "great opportunity" to get richer. Let's not forget that Emanuel was part of the board of directors at Fannie Mae, when it was going down the tube. No one raised the issue, because no one dares to challenge the powerful special interest group that he belongs to.

Obama slogan was "change", but I am sorry to say that so far I don't see any serious change. He is diffidently better that Bush, but that's not too hard to achieve!. It's business as usual in Washington.

Corruption runs deep in Wall Street and Washington. A prime example is the Madoff scandal, where the scheme went on "unnoticed" for over 20 years. Guess which special interest group Madoff belongs to.

It's the taxpayer who gets to pay the bill at the end. Meanwhile Wall Street (2008 bonuses anyone!) and the politicians get to profit! Outrageous!!

On Feb 10 09:33 AM Lars39 wrote:

> Most people, I think, want an economic fix, but are not sure this
> one is the best way to go. The tone of this administration was revealed
> when they came in with the words of incoming White House Chief of
> Staff Rahm Emanuel, "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste."
>
> This crisis is presenting an oportunity to craft a "stimulus" bill
> that will have good parts and not so good parts that in effect set
> the framework for the socialist programs Obama and Co. want to implement
> without having to sell them all at once.
> There is too much money spent on things that don't seem to address
> the immediate needs of stimulating the economy now.
> The approach is "don't worry, the government knows best" and that's
> not reassuring to most of us.

BofA's Merrill Purchase: Good for America, Bad for Them

Thu, 05 Feb 2009 12:26:36 -0500

You gota love this country. If you get caught shoplifting, you'll be thrown in jail, but if you steal billions then it's OK!. Meanwhile BOA is tanking and Lewis still gets to keep his job!

Lewis is an idiot. He should have known that he works for the stock-holders. He is not a federal employee. I mean these CEO's get paid millions to run a big enerprise, when someone with a half a brain (thats me) can run it better than them. When the risk is high, you need to take defensive measures, not gamble with more risk.

Credit Markets Take a Beating

Wed, 14 Jan 2009 15:00:00 -0500

We should call it TRAP not TARP!! The governemnt refuses to tackle the source of the problem, which is foreclosures. The bubble is about to burst, and the bandages won't work. I am glad that I have stayed in cash since end of 2007.

Great Lessons from Big Scandals

Tue, 23 Dec 2008 14:40:29 -0500

"You don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out".
Madoff was the head of NASDAQ for God sake!. SEC was the watchdog that never barked. Not because they did not know, but because they are corrupt to the core. Many of the people who claim to be victims of Madoff, are actually partners in crime. They most certainly knew that he was doing something elligal. But they figured to enjoy the party while it lasts.

For me, I did my own risk management. First I never demanded high returns from my investments. Secondly, I just followed my own instinct. I bailed out completely from the stock market by the end of last year. I was spooked by the economic envirenment, increased volatility and downward trend that was begining to gain momentum. My prediction is that the market is going to decline further in 2009. There is still a lot of aknowns out there.

Holiday Markets: Wishing and Hoping

Mon, 22 Dec 2008 15:43:27 -0500

Another attempt on calling the bottom. Stocks are cheap, but not cheap enough. Wishfull thinknig!!

Global Markets, Meet President Obama. Now What?

Fri, 07 Nov 2008 17:18:53 -0500

Are you now telling me that Bush went into Iraq to save the Iraqi people from Saddam?. I thought he went there to destroy the weapons of mass destruction!. When the Iraqi wall was torn down, the iranians were quick to fill the vacuum.

Obama picked "Rahm Emanuel" for the "Cheif of Staff" job!. Oh, great!. When I read about Emanuel, I know that Barak is not intending to make real changes. It is pay back time, if you know what I mean. We are back to business as usual again. The euphoria that surrounded Obama's victory is quickly evaporating!!

On Nov 07 04:03 PM RedAZ wrote:

> "Bush has destroyed Iraq"
>
> Just ask the millions that were oppressed under Sadaam. Yup, they
> were fat dumb and happy?
>
> The fact is, they freedoms the Iraqis have today are worlds better.
> And talk with soldiers that have been there - not the smile for the
> camera politicians or the nothing good happening here press. Let
> them tell you what is really happening. Let them tell you they are
> far better off than before. Let them describe the horror of living
> under Sadaam. Freedom ain't free. And freedom costs lives. As soon
> as you are not willing to lose life for freedom, you will lose your
> freedom.
>
> Just sit at home and let the media tell you what they want you to
> know.

Global Markets, Meet President Obama. Now What?

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 14:54:59 -0500

I agree that we need a thrid party. Corruption runs deep in both parties. Special interest groups are almost in total control. I had voted before for Bush in the year 2000. I cann't say it was the wrong choince, becuase the Gore/Lieberman ticket looked even worst. I voted for Obama this time around, becuase I was just sick and tired of the republicans neo cons. I have to say however, that I don't expect real changes in Washington. It would be business as usual again. But at least we can start doing some damage control. Who knows, maybe Obama will be able to turn things around. I think that he is a good man. I am not sure however, if he is going to be able to swim against the current!

On Nov 06 03:40 AM edt wrote:

> Dear xsuddensam,
>
> Bravo to you! I didn't vote for the two 'republicrat' party candidates
> either, but did vote for the independent candidate. The fact that
> we don't have an independent minded american public is the precise
> reason why your comments are so true in my view.
>
> I watched ,for as long as I could, those fools waving flags and acting
> like
> drunks at a new years eve celebration! Now I know why Adolph Hitler
>
> was quoted as saying "it's such a wonderful thing for governments
> that
> the people don't think!"
>
> EDT
> Chicago, Illinois

Global Markets, Meet President Obama. Now What?

Wed, 05 Nov 2008 13:54:46 -0500

Obama will have an ugly inheritance. He is going to inherit all the huge problems that Bush and Co. have created over years. It is going to be very hard to dig ourselves out from this deep hole. The economy is on the verge of collapse. Bush has destroyed Iraq, only to help unleash Iran (which is the real threat). America's image has been tarnished, thanks to Guantanamo and such, and the list goes on..
It will take long time to cleanup the mess. But at least, we can say we are on the right track now, hopefully.

Those Who Don't Learn from History...

Mon, 27 Oct 2008 11:15:47 -0400

It is business as usual. It is OPM after all...

First Thoughts on the Fed Plan

Wed, 15 Oct 2008 10:33:24 -0400

Ok. The market is loosing steam real fast. It looks like that the artificial confidence created by Paulson and Co is eveporating. I have to admit, this downturn was faster than I thought. I thought we will have a nice rally for a week or so. But I was wrong. I made the mistake of taken the plung yesterday (after being idle for almost a year). I went in with 20% of the cash. I pulled out today. I know this sounds erratic, but remember that the market is also chaotic.

In my opinion, the Feds need to let this problem work itself out, instead of over-reacting (nothing new to the Bush admin). It will be like shock therapy.
Let the reckless banks and investors pay for their mistakes. And while you are at it, enforce transperancy. Yes we will end with a much smaller financial sector. But on the long run, the system will heal itself. People will be forced to become less addicted to credit, which is a good thing!.

First Thoughts on the Fed Plan

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 11:23:02 -0400

It is clear that the Bush admin is trying every trick to restore confidence. This is mainly for 2 reasons. The upcoming elections and then Bush is trying to salvage his tarnished legacy. The new Cons will have difficulty justifying their war games in Iraq, if the economy continues on a free fall.
I pulled completely out of the market in December of last year. I congratulate myself, since I have avoided huge losses by this move.

Having said that, I think this appears to be a sucker's rally. But I would want to take advantage of it, neverthless. I am back in the market with 20% of the cash (very short term).

Fear Is Not a Strategy

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 16:06:54 -0400

I had pulled out of the merket at the end of last year. I have avoided being crushed. Now, it is very difficult to decide when to go back. Panic seems to be emerging, which is never good. I would rather miss the most of the rally, than being slaughtered like a sheep. The risk completely out wieghs the reward at this point. Remember that meraktes do not like uncertainties, and there are plenty of at right now. I will take my money and do something else, other than the brutal stock market. I will be back in a few months to re-evaluate.

Dow 10,000: Does Anybody Care?

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 12:04:51 -0400

Last time I got out of the market was in june of 2001. I got back in at the end of 2006. I then got out completely in November of 2007.The main reason why I got out, is becuase I felt that there was too many aknowns. Speculators were out of control. My sintemet is still bearish for the short term, as there are still some serious aknowns.
I know it is a lot tougher to decide when to take the plunge and get back in the market. I will keep my eyes open.

Propping Up Home Prices Will Not Solve the Crisis

Mon, 06 Oct 2008 09:10:46 -0400

Dr. Jackpot! While you are at it, why not send homeowners to jail too!. It starting to sound like communism. You can not force people to stay in their homes. If they don't have enough of an incentive to stay then they will just continue to walk away. The 20% at 2% rate, is too little. In some markets the decline is a lot more than that.