techzone12

Sucker's Rally Approaching an End

It's called a sucker's rally, because it sucks you in...
What we are witnessing is the transfer of debt from the big banks' balance sheets to the taxpayer. So all of a sudden, the banks are making record "profit"!. Congrats!. It's time to distribute new bonuses!. Enjoy the ride!

Is the Populist Mob Right?

To get to the source of the problem, just look at how we elect politicians. Most of the politicians in Washington have ties with special interest groups. It's the traditional "pay to play" scheme. It's what called "lobbying". Does anyone remember Abramoff? How about Madoff (he ran his scheme for 20 years, and he was the head of Nasdaq at some point)?

That's why they are bailing out the banks and not the people. Then they would use scare tactics (anyone one remembers the scare tactics that Bush used to wage war on Iraq!). They will tell the average Joe that he will loose his job, if they don't bailout the banks. They will tell him that the bonuses to the crooks are a necessary evil to get the job done.

That's why I argue that this crisis is more political than being economical. Both republicans and Dems are responsible. So far, the change that Obama has promised did not materialize. Because he has "advisors" telling him that he needs to be careful as to "not rock the boat".

The solution is really simple: "Don't Let the fox guard the henhouse"

10 Reasons Why We Still Haven't Hit Bottom

I got out of the market at the end of 2007, when the professionals were saying to “stay the course”. I am still on the side line. Yes I have missed the recent 20% rally, and I don't feel bad about it. My philosophy is to never try to hunt for the bottom. Because if it is NOT the true bottom then there is a good chance that I will loose my shirt in the process.

I don't know if this is the bottom. There is one reason however why I think that there is a long way to go yet. That reason is that the government is as corrupt as Wall Street. Special Interest groups are still ruling the country. The "pay to play" is still alive and well. The AIG scandal is a prime example. And yes Geithner turned a blind eye to AIG bonuses.

Why do you think that the government stood still, while Madoff was running his giant Ponze scheme for over 20 years? Is it because of the lack of laws? Or is it maybe because he belongs to a special interest group, which is considered untouchable.

How to Know a Bottom When You Don't See One

Why don't we just admit that we don't know.. no one has a crystal ball. Only God Knows what the future holds..
I can guarnatee you one thing. When the market reaches the true bottom, most people will miss it. Most people will be taken by surprise, including me.

I am not ready to take the plung yet however, even though I have been out of the market since november of 2007. I keep my eyes on the macro economic picture. For now, the fact that we still have a lot of uncertainties, make it very risky to invest. We still do not know what the banks are hiding. We also know that the foreclosure crisis is growing. So for now I have decided to continue to stay on the side line, but ready to enter with maybe 10% of cash. I will keep you posted :)

Holiday Markets: Wishing and Hoping

Another attempt on calling the bottom. Stocks are cheap, but not cheap enough. Wishfull thinknig!!

Fear Is Not a Strategy

I had pulled out of the merket at the end of last year. I have avoided being crushed. Now, it is very difficult to decide when to go back. Panic seems to be emerging, which is never good. I would rather miss the most of the rally, than being slaughtered like a sheep. The risk completely out wieghs the reward at this point. Remember that meraktes do not like uncertainties, and there are plenty of at right now. I will take my money and do something else, other than the brutal stock market. I will be back in a few months to re-evaluate.

Dow 10,000: Does Anybody Care?

Last time I got out of the market was in june of 2001. I got back in at the end of 2006. I then got out completely in November of 2007.The main reason why I got out, is becuase I felt that there was too many aknowns. Speculators were out of control. My sintemet is still bearish for the short term, as there are still some serious aknowns.
I know it is a lot tougher to decide when to take the plunge and get back in the market. I will keep my eyes open.

Is it Different This Time?

I remember in the year 2000, a Financial advisor was telling me to put most of the money in tech stocks. I did not listen to him, instead I put 30% only.
In mid 2001, when I saw the 7% decline in the market (which happend in few days), I pulled all my money out. I was out of the market for many years. I returned in the beginning of 2007. And I bailed out again in December of 2007. I don't calim to be able to time the market, I guess I just got lucky.

If you have money you don't need for looooong time, then it is maybe a good time to invest. For an average guy, like me, I know I can loose my shirt in this market. That's why I am out of the market for the time being. There is so much uncertainty, and I don't know who to believe. Speculators are every where, and they are out of control.

I have learned not listen to any body, but instead do my own risk management.

Money Flows Into the Market: What They're Telling Us

I tried to time the market before and failed, not badly though. I withdrew from the stock market in the middle of 2001. The problem is that I didn't get back until early 2006. I then got out in November of last year. When I do the math I can see some gains with the moves I made, but nothing huge. I have to say I am nervous about today's market. I am getting back in with just 20% of the cash. The risk is too high, but so is the reward! The technicals indicate (although could be artificial) that the market is recovering, but the overall economy suggests otherwise. There are just too many unknowns.
I think (and obviously I could be wrong), that there will be some significant money to be made in the very short term (one month form now). But long term, the picture is not so rosy! So I will be in and out, trying to time the market, again!!. :)