CloroxCowboy

Thoughts on Last Night's Speech by the President

I also have to disagree with the immigration remarks, Fred. I'm something like a 16th generation American and I'm a very hard-working, ambitious person...there are also plenty of lazy immigrants so be careful about generalizing.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

On May 01 10:33 AM History Buff 24/7 wrote:

> CloroxCowboy,
>
> Let's ignore the self-evident, that Chrysler was a walking corpse
> way before yesterday.

Why ignore it? I'd rather not if you don't mind. It's is the whole issue in my opinion. A walking corpse is something you should put out of its misery by killing it swiftly. If it can be brought back to life in a healthier form, then all the better.

> Obama's comment WAS Orwellian, in the context that it is beyond nonsense,
> absolute nonsense, it is a contradiction in terms. That's what's
> Orwellian, "slavery is freedom", "war is peace". A lie is not any
> less a lie just because it comes from the mouths of the powerful.
> Saying that a company being placed into bankruptcy is not "a sign
> of weakness". What is it a sign of, pray tell?

You're confusing Chrysler with its (soon-to-be former) management. Bankruptcy is a huge sign of weakness for Nardelli et al, proving that they are ineffective at dealing with their creditors, unions, etc. On the other hand, Chrysler, the company, the distinct corporate entity will emerge stronger because of bankruptcy, which is the entire reason Chapter 11 exists. By your line of thinking, a doctor giving his patient medication would be an Orwellian act. You're confusing the patient with the virus.

> In Obama's doublespeak, I guess what he was saying is "don't stand
> in the way of an orderly settlement", we will steam roller you. "We"
> being the government of the United States of America.

Yes, I imagine that would happen. A big reason he was elected was the concept of change, therefore it's his mandate from the majority of Americans. Changing things doesn't always equate to asking nicely.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

What a crock...how else did you expect this to play out, David? Chrysler forfeited ALL their rights the day Nardelli flew in his private jet to beg Congress for spare change. From that moment on, the company existed at the pleasure of the Federal govt. Had money not been forth-coming, the company would have and should have died at that time.

I don't see what's so "Orwellian" about Obama's statement. You kill a sick company, then revive it in a much healthier form. What's hard to understand about that?

Credit Default Swaps May Be Playing a Supporting Role in Chrysler Bankruptcy Filings

I'd have to agree that disregarding senior debt is dangerous at best. IMHO, it is absolutely the union that should suffer in this deal. UAW auto workers are over-paid for their skillset, plain and simple. That is a huge part of what's driven Chrysler, Ford, GM into the dirt. Of course the vehicle designs are lacking, but when exactly did it become status-quo for a working-class job to equate to a middle-class lifestyle? It's just not a sustainable business model.

Examining the 'Sell in May, Go Away' Axiom

Cetin, stop wasting server space with your nonsense! You only need to make one blanket post per quarter telling everyone that you're still a perma-bull.


On Apr 29 02:22 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> 'Sell in May Go Away' axiom will fail this year. The momentum is
> overwhelmingly bullish and the economy is improving.

If You're Bullish: Time for a 70's Party

I think it's too easy to "see" similarities in charts for this argument to be very convincing. It's like looking at a cloud and "seeing" a puppy...

I do use a similar method for trading closely related stocks (ie pairs trade), but comparing the same index across two arbitrarily chosen time periods is completely different, and IMO borders on pseudo-statistics.

Bogle: Investors 'Getting Killed' in ETFs

Your opinion only. Some people do quite well trading, you're just not one of them. Certainly the average joe "investor" has no business trading anything.


On Jun 18 06:33 PM ETF Grind wrote:

> We already know that trading is a statistically losing proposition,
> no matter what vehicle you use.

Is Buying Bonds Really a Good Idea?

Felix,

I'm confused as to what your exact position is with this article. Granted, Brett Arends' #4 explanation is a terrible justification for investing in equities, but that doesn't mean investing in equities is a terrible idea right now...he's just providing the wrong reason to do so. Since it appears you're advocating a cash position (I had to re-read that part to make sure I wasn't missing some hidden sarcasm), when exactly should investors jump back in, when prices are high again? Long-term portfolios should be buying now, on the way down, not waiting for "safety".

This is just the flipside to the arguments I saw back in Nov '07 from all the "long-terms", the ones that were deriding those of us who clearly saw the writing on the wall and preserved our profits above 13000. We were called spineless or speculators back then, and now we are being lumped in with Mr. Arends who seems to have slept through a few basic investing courses. Buy low (that's NOW).

Revisiting the MBS Debate (Which We Should Already Be Past)

Your analysis is spot-on. I was also involved in this industry, trading loan pools for a sub-prime lender from '05 to '07 and I remember many of the same comments. Our "executives" knew plain and simple that the paper we sold was crap. To be a sales or underwriting manager at that company meant that you spent 90% of your day pressing the manual override button on loans that were kicked from our automated system. There was always some justification to push a loan through.

One of the most interesting meetings I remember was when I saw that our latest operating costs were hovering around 2%. This was mid-2007 and by that time our net revenue from sales to the secondary market was about 1.75%... You might be able to guess the company motto? "Outrun it with volume!" All we had to do was keep selling more loans each month than the month before, and we could make the dream last forever. Luckily, I found a new job soon thereafter.

But as you say, none of this is new. People still defending these business practices are probably also Holocaust deniers and would buy every stock Jim Cramer mutters about in his sleep.

Barack Obama: Buy Stocks. Jim Cramer: Stop It Obama!

It's all our fault!! Erin, how could we have been so blind to ignore your empassioned pleas? Forgive the American people for their ignorance, I beg you. And Cramer, with your tested and proven financial sixth-sense, you had only the country's interest at heart all along. Ratings be damned!! These are real humanitarians, people...

In other words...
Consummate.
Bullsh*t.
Artists.

On Buffett-Back Riding

The author makes a very important point in his conclusion. I experimented with riding some of his picks earlier in '08. Some, like BNI and NSC, worked out well for me, but others are still floundering. Above all, it taught me that my investing style does not match Buffett's. I'm not inclined to buy a company and hold it forever, even if it would have worked out well 5-10 years down the road. It's just not the way I like to do things. Make sure you understand that Buffett is buying stocks that he thinks will pay off according to his timeframe, and that if your timeframe doesn't match his you should avoid this play.

Google Chrome: Redefining the Operating System

Gotta disagree. Mac and Linux are completely different than what Google's proposing with Chrome. Apples are too expensive for marginal, if any, computing advantage...it's all about buying an image. Linux is not necessarily hard to configure, but it's not the push-button solution that Goodle is describing either. And neither is really a web-based OS like Chrome would be.

A fast, streamlined, FREE os that gets users on the web quickly...I think MSFT is in serious trouble.

On Jul 08 10:01 AM Larry Bellehumeur wrote:

> The Market won't care.....there has been a viable option in MAC and
> Linux for years, and MSFT is still king. Do you imagine a Fortune
> 500 company, which is where much of their money comes from, switching
> over? The average Home user might put $100 in MSFT's pocket, where
> as GE might put hundreds of millions per year....
>
> When Google cracks the Corporate market, then people will notice.

Unhappy with Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle, some newspapers and magazines forge alliances with consumer-electronics firms to create alternative e-readers. High on the request list: better pricing and subscriber options, and a better layout for advertising.

Better layout for advertising?? Why would I buy any of these readers if I have to look at ads? I'd buy a BOOK instead!

Credit Default Swaps May Be Playing a Supporting Role in Chrysler Bankruptcy Filings

...? That was my point. Working on an assembly line is a WORKING class occupation. $100K/year does not fit the job being done.


On May 01 08:59 AM Liz wrote:

>
>
> I'd hardly call $100K/year "working class".

If You're Bullish: Time for a 70's Party

I agree with those comments. Check out the author's related post and graph as they are a better use of technical analysis. The blue line "All Out Investment Sell Signal" at least serves as a reflection of market sentiment which Gred alluded to.

Also to be fair to the author I think there is a time and place for bumping two charts together and measuring the correlation, co-integration, etc...I just don't think this is a sound example of that approach.