CloroxCowboy

Bogle: Investors 'Getting Killed' in ETFs

Your opinion only. Some people do quite well trading, you're just not one of them. Certainly the average joe "investor" has no business trading anything.


On Jun 18 06:33 PM ETF Grind wrote:

> We already know that trading is a statistically losing proposition,
> no matter what vehicle you use.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

On May 01 10:33 AM History Buff 24/7 wrote:

> CloroxCowboy,
>
> Let's ignore the self-evident, that Chrysler was a walking corpse
> way before yesterday.

Why ignore it? I'd rather not if you don't mind. It's is the whole issue in my opinion. A walking corpse is something you should put out of its misery by killing it swiftly. If it can be brought back to life in a healthier form, then all the better.

> Obama's comment WAS Orwellian, in the context that it is beyond nonsense,
> absolute nonsense, it is a contradiction in terms. That's what's
> Orwellian, "slavery is freedom", "war is peace". A lie is not any
> less a lie just because it comes from the mouths of the powerful.
> Saying that a company being placed into bankruptcy is not "a sign
> of weakness". What is it a sign of, pray tell?

You're confusing Chrysler with its (soon-to-be former) management. Bankruptcy is a huge sign of weakness for Nardelli et al, proving that they are ineffective at dealing with their creditors, unions, etc. On the other hand, Chrysler, the company, the distinct corporate entity will emerge stronger because of bankruptcy, which is the entire reason Chapter 11 exists. By your line of thinking, a doctor giving his patient medication would be an Orwellian act. You're confusing the patient with the virus.

> In Obama's doublespeak, I guess what he was saying is "don't stand
> in the way of an orderly settlement", we will steam roller you. "We"
> being the government of the United States of America.

Yes, I imagine that would happen. A big reason he was elected was the concept of change, therefore it's his mandate from the majority of Americans. Changing things doesn't always equate to asking nicely.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

What a crock...how else did you expect this to play out, David? Chrysler forfeited ALL their rights the day Nardelli flew in his private jet to beg Congress for spare change. From that moment on, the company existed at the pleasure of the Federal govt. Had money not been forth-coming, the company would have and should have died at that time.

I don't see what's so "Orwellian" about Obama's statement. You kill a sick company, then revive it in a much healthier form. What's hard to understand about that?

Some Advice from Warren Buffet for Difficult Times

I agree with half of Buffet's mantra above - using fear and greed sentiments to help timing. As Jim points out though, holding forever is probably not the best strategy if you consider that the past 50 years could have simply been an inflationary period in the macro time-scale. I don't expect markets to reverse to 1950's prices, but I do expect them to flatten out considerably. The rest of the world has closed the gap on the US since WWII and we no longer have many of the market advantages that once existed.

With that said, my personal strategy is to buy cautiously and incrementally on downturns such as these. But instead of holding forever, I get really crazy and actually take a profit when prices go up again. People love to say that they got in on a certain company before everyone else, but how many of those people get out at the right time to turn a paper profit into a real one?

America To The Rescue

I believe if you look at the entire debt to GDP graph you'll see that the huge spike in the ratio was caused by the waging of WWII, and quickly relieved in the years following its conclusion. The pattern is similar to the one seen during WWI and the Civil War before that.

Food certainly is one thing we make a lot of, but my point was that oil markets denominated in dollars may provide unstable support for our currency. If the world were to start trading oil in euros and I would expect to see an effect.

America To The Rescue

The United States IS losing relevance. We've had our hegemony since the favorable (economic and industrial) outcome of WWII, which created a HUGE trade surplus, pegged currencies to the dollar, and quite logically pushed our economy through the roof.

But that was over 60 years ago... What goods do we produce now? Where is the mighty industrial capacity that launched us on to the world stage in the first place? Americans today hold service jobs. We sell things to each other that are made elsewhere. We live on credit...not just credit from other Americans, but mostly from the (quickly) developing world. Oil markets around the world deal exclusively in dollars, think that could have anything to do with the survival of our currency in the face of so much debt?

And with all that we're supposed to think that global stocks showing a short term rebound means the storm has passed? Something inside tells me global stocks and the US in general are standing on something far removed from "solid footing". I believe I'll pass on buying today.