CloroxCowboy

Bogle: Investors 'Getting Killed' in ETFs

Your opinion only. Some people do quite well trading, you're just not one of them. Certainly the average joe "investor" has no business trading anything.


On Jun 18 06:33 PM ETF Grind wrote:

> We already know that trading is a statistically losing proposition,
> no matter what vehicle you use.

Barack Obama: Buy Stocks. Jim Cramer: Stop It Obama!

User370736,

How exactly is he "destroying wealth"? I hear that BS phrase thrown around way too much lately, so I'd like to know. What specific actions has he taken to destroy your wealth? Is he supposed to snap his fingers and make the market go up? And please tell me what actions you would take in his position to demonstrate your "skills"?

Barack Obama: Buy Stocks. Jim Cramer: Stop It Obama!

It's all our fault!! Erin, how could we have been so blind to ignore your empassioned pleas? Forgive the American people for their ignorance, I beg you. And Cramer, with your tested and proven financial sixth-sense, you had only the country's interest at heart all along. Ratings be damned!! These are real humanitarians, people...

In other words...
Consummate.
Bullsh*t.
Artists.

Covered Call Option Writing Strategies: Fishing and Cutting Bait

Your comment about not knowing how to use vega is a little concerning. Unless the position is vega-neutral it's absolutely in your interest to know how to "use" vega. I agree with your two points about not going too deep ITM and selling short dated options, but are you saying you're not taking vega into consideration at all? A spike in IV may not blow up your positions, but it's not something I would ignore either.

If You're Bullish: Time for a 70's Party

I agree with those comments. Check out the author's related post and graph as they are a better use of technical analysis. The blue line "All Out Investment Sell Signal" at least serves as a reflection of market sentiment which Gred alluded to.

Also to be fair to the author I think there is a time and place for bumping two charts together and measuring the correlation, co-integration, etc...I just don't think this is a sound example of that approach.

If You're Bullish: Time for a 70's Party

I think it's too easy to "see" similarities in charts for this argument to be very convincing. It's like looking at a cloud and "seeing" a puppy...

I do use a similar method for trading closely related stocks (ie pairs trade), but comparing the same index across two arbitrarily chosen time periods is completely different, and IMO borders on pseudo-statistics.

2008 Performance of Stocks, Oil, Dollar, Long Bond

I'm disappointed because I already know the basic info, which is all these guys ever provide. What I expect from authors on this site (and I hope it's not an unrealistic expectation) is some kind of added insight. I have no problem with anyone posting a graph or talking about events in the past, but if that's all there is to the article perhaps the title should be:

Stocks vs. Bonds: An Update for the Current Market

Short WFC,


The article you pasted in takes a pretty narrow view and ignores the possibilities that exist with the current yields. Being a young investor, I'm buying these steadily on the way down, reaping increasingly more pleasing payments along the way. I also have the luxury of a long horizon to let prices bottom out whenever they choose and sell at a profit later. I realize that not everyone has time on their side, but those people shouldn't be involved in junk funds for that very reason.

Fear Is Not a Strategy

Excellent article. I wonder if some of you are missing the point?

adventureneil, I'll simply ask "How can you, me, or anyone possibly know for certain that cheap will get any cheaper?" Same question for 'one more once'. Nothing wrong with patience, but eventually you have to take a swing at something or go back to the dugout.

cristian, if you're saying that being in cash or gold over the past year would have been a good idea, I agree. If you're advocating making that switch now, it's too late my friend. Ditto for Frank Miller's comment. It's far too late to correct any hesitation that might have occurred earlier this year. Better to begin buying in gradually now if you got out early, or hold on to your shares if you weren't lucky/smart enough to sell before now. And if you're the 50-60 year old who has just seen his 401k go up in smoke because he violated one of the most basic principles of asset allocation - being heavily invested in volatile securities so close to retirement - and now you're in panic mode, there's not much I can say...please don't blame anyone else for that colossal mistake.

The U.S. on the Precipice

Thank you for an article that is not afraid to be blunt and piss some people off!

Financials Give Up Most of Bull Market Gains

What is the point of this article? You mean to tell me that financials are down? Oh, now I see it...without those red arrows I would be lost.

In the future, can you guys please supply a little analysis of the FUTURE price potential in the market? Your articles are jam packed with charts and tables, but these are things that people already know. I mean, you do this for a living correct?

Don't get me wrong, I don't expect you to tell me exactly what to buy and when, but what am I really supposed to get out of a chart showing me that financials are down? I'd love to start up an advisory service myself, and I've got this wild hunch that Einstein's theory of relativity might have some merit. Are there any physicists on this site who would be willing to pay me for that info?

An Oil-Driven Paradigm Shift?

Wake up people...electric or hybrid vehicles are NOT any sort of solution at this point. Anything that is dependent on electricity today is just as much of a drain on supplies of non-renewable resources as using regular unleaded. For example, one person charging their electric car requires a microscopic increase in the power supplied by the electric grid. If everyone in the country switched to electric vehicles, the additional demand for electricity would be huge. As of 2006, only 28.8% of electricity was produced using nuclear or renewable energy sources...the remainder comes from burning coal, oil, or natural gas. So where does the increased supply of electricity come from in my example above?

In the short-term we can't crank up the hydro, wind, solar, or nuclear production too much...we will be forced to buy and burn more fossil fuels. So as much as we would love to believe that going electric is the same as going green, it's just not the case yet. We MUST put at least as much effort (probably more) into cleaning up the production of electricity as we do weaning our cars off gas.

Are US Equities a Buy?

Paul Price nailed it. Do all the analysis you want, I know it has helped my timing occasionally. But buying in stages on the way down and selling in stages on the way up will beat analysis-based timing 9 times out of 10. Notice, I'm not saying buy and hold either. Take your money and run when the markets get silly with overconfidence, but do it BEFORE the top. I was 90% out of equities by mid-year 2007, and I don't say that to brag but just to illustrate my point. No crystal ball is required for this strategy, if you're buying and selling gradually it's hard to go terribly wrong. Switch to a sector or market which is on its way down but likely to recover in due time, and slowly build a position there. Right now I would build that position very slowly indeed, since I agree that things are not as cheap now as they will be by '09.

Even Buffett Isn't Perfect

What if the majority of boomers do not realize that they are unprepared for retirement until it's too late? Much more frightening outcome in my opinion...

Thinking In Themes: What Color Are Your Markets?

I'd be interested to know how many investors not suffering from color-blindness in 2000 were called perma-bears at the time? From what I remember, the concensus (among the vast majority) then was that we had reached a paradigm-shift in market behavior - earnings no longer mattered, etc...

Also I'm not sure that the XLY:XLP ratio means that consumers are actually changing their spending habits? With the current prices of oil and food, those indices appear to be speculation-driven as more and more Americans are thinking of ways to cut back on their discretionary spending, not increase it.

Bottom line, investors may be able to move ratios around, but they can't turn a slowing economy into a rallying one for very long if/when consumers stop spending.