Tedspick

America as Argentina: Setting Up For Economic Decline

Wasn't there a massive, hyperinflation in Argentina when those house of cards collapsed? I also wonder about being long the dollar in the light of this analysis unless it is a short term trade. Incidentally this is not about patriotism, we all need to take care of our own ass-ets or go down with the ship!

The Un-Reagan and the Un-Rally

E Nuff Sed asks for more statistics. While rough, I pulled some numbers off the plotted data for dollar vs S&P 500 and cranked them into Minitab getting an "R squared" which gives us an estimate of 75% for the degree to which the value of the dollar influences stock prices. In other words the value of the dollar "explains" 75% of the stock rally. This is consistent with what the author is telling us. The estimate would be more robust if we added into the regression equation other relevant variables such as changes in corporate earnings. That might be what's driving the other 25%.

What Stories Aren't Being Told?

The earlier comment about an untold story concerning the other side of the global warming issue listed three blogsites. Here is the site that everyone really needs to become familiar with. This is where you read what the true research professionals have to say about climate change.

realclimate.org

Why Economic Dogma Threatens Our Future Prosperity

Lets see now, who was in the White House during the infamous "Guns and Butter" time when we had the "Great Society" as well as that lovely war in Vietnam? And didn't Johnson come BEFORE the infamous Reagan? How was all that paid for? Did the democratic congress balance the budget then?

Another question centers on the measured increase in government revenues that accompanied historic tax cuts. Nobody in their right mind thinks that we can cut taxes and at the same time indulge in massive spending increases (Reagan purchased an end to the cold war doing that) - how about cutting taxes AND holding the line on spending at the same time? Thats when you get the best of both worlds.

Recent Policy Decisions and a Greater Depression

There is a book on my bedstand called "Bankruptcy 1995" by Harry Figgie. The only thing he got wrong was the timing. Blame can be issued to all kinds of politicians-of-the-mom... but decades and decades of exercising our culture of consumption and debt has finally cracked the system just as ole Figgie said it would. What to do? Figgie says that 1. The government must begin telling the truth 2. Create a "deficit war cabinet" (we are at war with ourselves) 3. Don't allow gov agencies to issue debt (ha!) 4. Don't monetize the debt 5. Pay down the debt but 6. Don't raise taxes.

GOOD LUCK!

Today's Commodity Prices Forecast Tomorrow's Inflation

Unfortunately I recognize myself as one of those "retail" investors, always late to the party and one of the reasons is simple fear to plunge in before the trend is so obvious that it ends up nearer the top of the bubble. Thats why this post is so interesting to me and I am looking for true early warning indicators. A new one for me is the "Baltic Dry Index" which is showing a rather clear bottom formation and even the start of upward movement. This action looks distinctively unique when comparing it to the chart over the last several years. I have read that when raw materials start moving it is a sign that manufacturing increases are on the way. Another advance indicator for eventual inflation.

Advice for Obama: Spend Green Today, Tax Green in the Future

Glen L: You are not "extensively reading" the right sources. All of your points are easily explained and refuted by research scientists as described on the excellent site: realclimate.org

I suggest studying what the real scientists say and not religious-style beliefs of the propagandists. You will find there not "argument-by authority" but instead argument from measurements and scientific fact.

What Does Obama's Cabinet Have in Store for Alternative Energy?

Before expressing strong opinions about how Global Warming is "junk science" fomented by environmental wackos I suggest taking some sobering time to read the postings of real scientists on: realclimate.org

The facts and figures do not support the rantings of "deniers" like the Heartland Institute.

Social Security: A Ponzi Scheme?

The view looks different from inside SS than from outside. If I were an administrator of SS I would say, "look at all these government bonds I have! no problem! I can continue sending checks to recipients after SS tax income is less than what we owe to retirees". The problem occurs when I try to cash in that bond. The money is not in a bank account, in fact it is not even sitting in a Fed account. Instead I take the bond to congress and THEY must get the money from the tax payers all over again or ask the Fed to crank up printing presses. Even though we already sent in excess SS taxes, the Government took that excess money and spent it, replacing it with these so-called "bonds". That's why SS is like a Ponzi scheme. The "trust fund" is just so many pieces of paper warning tax payers to BEND OVER!..... AGAIN!

Resuscitating Keynes: Oh No, Not Again!

"There you go again"...Clinton policies are attributed to the surplus without any regard to the Gingrich "Contract With America" which lowered the rate of increase in congressional blow-out spending. Bush is the universal bad guy today without consideration of the hugely significant role played by congress. If you want REAL change better to change the folks sitting in the House and Senate!

Commercial Real Estate Not Immune to Economic Woes

We keep hearing about the belief that Iraq was "all about oil". If that is correct, where's the oil? How come we in America aren't awash in Iraqi oil? If you read the Bernstein books (an author who can hardly be considered an apologist for the administration) on the Iraq war you find the word "oil" barely mentioned. Whether rightly or wrongly, the Iraq invasion seemed to be about the assumed presence of "Weapons of Mass Destruction". Oil in Iraq belongs to the people of Iraq and still belongs to the people of Iraq. If we want that oil we must line up like everyone else and buy it on the open market. Its time to put to bed that old liberal fantasy about how the Iraq invasion was "all about oil".

What a Look Back at the Japanese Market Tells Us

But we are about to elect a president more interested in protectionism and higher business taxes and punishing investment so the suggestions for how we should move forward mentioned above appear to be unlikely

Obama's Windfall Profits Proposal Is Dangerous

Wait a moment! An important part of those so-called "excessive profits" go to us old retired geezers who receive those profits in our 401K programs and pensions. I think all the retired persons in America should unite and revolt against the Democrats who are planning to make us poorer! That won't happen because AARP is a liberal insurance group and the media won't communicate the truth so us old folks will just end up holding the short end of the stick.

The People's Republic of America?

How soon we forget - does anyone remember the Republicans "Contract with America"? A republican congress during part of Clintons years held the line on government spending and then we had the dot com tax revenues to give Clinton a brief and surprising surplus (if you do not look closely at the Social Security "trust fund"! Also how come most of all taxes are being paid by the wealthy? The so-called unfair taxation is one of the great misunderstandings of all time fostered by the Democratic media.

Black Gold or Yellow Gold?

Cheap shots at Bush are popular right now but fail to deal with his repeated requests to an ignorant congress that supply of crude oil needs to be developed in ANWAR and off the continental shelf. There was an energy policy and congress simply failed repeatedly to act on it. If you think things are bad now just check back in 4 years of a Democrat in the White House and you will REALLY see the US trashed! By the way, Iraq was all about the threat of weapons of mass destruction (not finding them doesn't count unless all administrations can turn the clock back and revise history). The three books by Bernstein only mentioned the word "oil" three times - it was NEVER about oil - that's just conspiracy theorising..... too much nasty political prejudice in these posts which takes a bit away from otherwise wise concerns over peak oil and the disaster to come!