Bobco23

Total Rating:
+3 / -1

13 Comments

    • Sun Nov 16th 21:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Peak Oil's Bell Is Ringing
      You got bin ladin's cell phone number? Ask his opinion on war. His goal make your "US leadership role" for peace N/A.


      On Nov 16 09:16 AM ferguson wrote:

      > The New York Times lead editorial this morning (11/16/2008) calls
      > for a military restructuring and buildup to deal with a different
      > but still dangerous world. As we look at the real world around us,
      > the editorial has a lot merit.
      >
      > On the other hand, even if all of the advocated steps are taken and
      > we are able to battle the forces of evil to a draw, the result will
      > still be disastrous for the simple reason that war has now become
      > a distraction from the real problems facing the world which include
      > global warming, environmental degredation, food and water shortages,
      > population growth and (last but not least) peak oil.
      >
      > War and the preparation for war is one of the least (perhaps the
      > very least) productive uses of time and energy on the planet. The
      > world as a whole (and we have to think in these terms) simply cannot
      > afford a future where a large percentage of resources are spent on
      > national defense, war and the aftermath of war.
      >
      > The clear interests of the entire world and its inhabitants are in
      > finding a way to move beyond war. As the world's mightiest war machine,
      > the U.S. should take the lead in this direction.
      View article »
    • Sat Nov 8th 21:54 PM | Rating: +2 0
      Commented on:
      The Real Unemployment Numbers
      notmuchhope, your post is the most profound of the day. We are indeed in a new order and root cause lies much deeper than mis-reported unemployment numbers, big government, or (for those who insist on ranting), George Bush. The shift in global power has some similarities to the fall of the British economy beginning in the late 1800s. We have created a competetive world that has successfully challenged us. The future will be either a continually diminishing standard of living or a radical new approach that the entire county embraces as a new economic culture. Bet on the former.

      It certainly is sad to see my country fail, but after I get over reality, I (and you) having some capital left, need to consider how to prosper in this new paradigm.
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 7th 18:33 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      What Obama's Victory Means for the Defense Sector
      So, Silverslut; do you have any investment ideas to contribute or is this just a format for you to rant?
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 19:36 PM | Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      Two Strong Energy Rebound Candidates
      Canadian trusts come with a future tax uncertainty, Canadian withholding, a declining Canadian dollar, and no potential for increased production. Check out the U.S. counterparts, BPT, PBT, SJT, and CRT and hold them in your self-directed IRA's if you can. I own all four. I did own HGT, PVX, and HTE. I hit a double with FDG on a take out by TCK, but the impending tax hit on closing forced my sale on the market at a discount. Canadian trusts come with a lot of unappreciated surprises. My advice is to stay away and seek comparble US entities.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 15th 23:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      1930's Redux? Possible Global Post-Meltdown Scenarios
      No one knows what the future holds, but we all suspect it is not good. On the other hand there may be some benefit in a poorer world. A collapse in oil prices may or may not result in a more belligerent Russia. The (first) collapse of the Soviet empire resulted in an emasulated Russia unable even to get it's ships to sea or pay it soldiers. $25 oil will defund Iran and Saudi Arabia and their surrogate, Al Qaeda. Islam may be put back in its box by the coming depression and collapse of petro dollar funding. Ironic. Oh well, I'd rather be broke and alive, than rich and dead.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 3rd 21:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      American Express to the Sell Block - Cramer's Mad Money (10/2/08)
      Oil and gas royalty trusts are not just a liquidation of assets play where the only upside is price. The stocks sell on a discounted cash flow model of price times estimated or proven reserves. As price rises, the pool of reserves increases. This is the result of price now justifying bringing on-line, previously "unprofitable reserves" (higher cost to develop into producing wells) excluded in the prior cash flow model into the "useable reserves" catagory and a new cash flow model. In a rising oil and gas market the trusts shares move up on yield (distributions) and reserve increases.

      When oil and gas prices decline, you have a great opportunity to buy cash flow and appreciation. Check out CRT, BPT, SJT, as well as PBT.

      Amazingly price increases supply. I think I have heard that somewhere before.
      View article »
    • Fri Oct 3rd 21:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Mark to Market?
      Accounting statements are intended to provide "useful" information to statement users. In an attempt to provide useful information and prevent lawsuits and dismemberment ala Arthur Anderson, the FASB and the accounting industry opted to support the MTM principal. Like a lot of things in life, it did not go as planned. When the market locked up, this methodology gave ridiculous numbers for the value of financial instruments. "Models", which have been given such a bad image by the media, turn out to be better indicators of value when markets are inefficient. A standard model, frequently used in M&A as well as plain vanilla commercial real estate transactions, is to value the asset at the contracted cash flows discounted by the prevailing interest rate. An allowance based on recent historical results is used to reduce overall portfolio value for anticipated defaults (net of collateral salvage value). The MTM concept in an illiquid market is like taking your own single hone mortgage note out on the street and trying to sell to passerbys. Likely there will be no takers. Does that mean the mortgage note is worthless? Of course not. A portfolio of collateralized mortgage notes has some value. The goal is to find a reasonable number that is "useful." Zero is neither reasoable nor useful.
      View article »
    • Sun Aug 31st 15:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Do Foreign Currency ETFs Have a Place in Your Portfolio?
      Thanks for a very useful article. With an Obama win likely, I am looking for a way to play stagflation. I thought the Swiss Franc might be a good place to put a portion of my growing cash position (45%) to work for both safety and income reasons. Your article gives me more ideas and options. My equity portfolio is heavily weighted to energy, commodities, and pipeline utilities; with a smaller exposure to technology and electric utilities. Currency ETFs will give a bit of diversification on the cash side.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 28th 09:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Republicans Better for the Economy? Pure Fiction!
      Good point, caveatBettor. I will also add; corrolation is not cause and effect. Just because the deficit was up or down when a particular party occupied the white house (by the way congress controls spending), does not mean that the party caused the deficit. This is a complex, competetive, and violent world. The rants are just too simplistic and emotional to be useful.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 28th 09:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Takeover Climate in Oil and Gas
      It is surprising the M&A activity has not yet begun. Watching BP get "thrown around like a rag doll" (Jeff Imelt, GE CEO) by Russia; XOM, CVX, and COP operations getting nationalized by Chavez; Nigeria's ethnic/religious/polit... unrest; and the standard middle east fare, one would think "safe" resources would be on the major's "buy now" shopping list. The next tier companies with comparatively "safe" resources would be the obvious targets: APC,APA, CNQ, and maybe OXY, MRO, HES. Any other targets?
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 13th 23:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Want to Profit from Sky-High Oil? Avoid the Majors
      All valid and interesting comments. APC, APA, etc. all look to be brides sometime in the near future. Oil service and exploration stocks look equally attractive. There is one paradigm changer that was not discussed - what happens if congress changes the drilling rules and opens up vast areas of the US for E&P? The majors seem the likely candidates to win these leases. Given the broohaha over Boeing/Airbus tanker contract, I can't see any leases going to foreign majors. So the question is, could the US majors see new life from voter pressure on congress to DO SOMETHING.
      View article »
    • Sun Jul 6th 16:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Mid-Year Report: Is a Summer Turn-around Still Possible?
      Blame the congress, the president, Republicans, big-oil?

      Come on. Grow up. The world is far too complex and competitive for any one group to create or manage this situation, let alone be able to change its course. The world changes; sometimes by a lot. This is one of those times.

      You would all be better off to stop whining and lean to trade the short side.
      View article »
    • Thu May 22nd 21:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Triple Play: Oil Addicts, The Credit Crunch and Deflation
      Where did you get this guy, the weather underground? 1) There is no oil conspiracy just a pardigm shift in the economic evolution of the world. Get over it and profit. 2) The end of the financial world is not coming, just punishment for those unfortunate enough to get caught in the bubble bust. Like tech, housing and credit will recover in time. 3) Deflation? You mean inflation. Printing money causes inflation not deflation (see Samuelson, Econ 101).
      View article »
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