sohony

This Rally May Have Legs - Bespoke

> I disagree.
> Recently Bespoke published that "Since the end of February, short
> sales on the New York Stock Exchange increased by 10.7%" on the rally.
>
> This sign tells me people are not scared by the rally and use it
> to increase their bets on the market fall.

duh.

a sharp increase in short sales is more often than not bullish.
especially if supported by other positive indicators.

a short sale will need to be covered at some point.
perhaps sooner rather than later if squeezed (as the march '09 vintage has been) by a sharp market advance....



On Mar 29 11:10 AM Roowns wrote:

> I disagree.
> Recently Bespoke published that "Since the end of February, short
> sales on the New York Stock Exchange increased by 10.7%" on the rally.
>
> This sign tells me people are not scared by the rally and use it
> to increase their bets on the market fall.
> The market reaction to Fed plan was totally wrong since all those
> money are pumped into banks for what ? To make sure this sector that
> contribute with nothing to economy doesn't fail and what banks are
> doing with the money ? Paying CEOs or keep liquidity for the rainy
> days.
> The few improvements that we've seen into the economic indicators
> surely are just a small step before we make a picture if it's the
> bottom or not.
> And after market rallied so much it makes it even more risky to enter
> now.

Can Investor Sentiment Be Rescued?

the correlation by eye between high bearishness and rallies is noteworthy:
static.seekingalpha.co...

anyone have a mathematical analysis of this?

The Paulson Doctrine: An Uncertain Prescriptive for Uncertain Times

paulson's remit is to look after his pals on wall street.

that's fine i guess but is there anyone out there whose remit is to look after the US taxpayer.

i'm not feeling very looked after right now.

paulson is not an elected representative so by US tradition he can look after his own personal interests, bail out his pals and represent the lobbyists who throw money at the republican party.

but where are our elected representatives in all of this?

oops i guess they've been paid off (see the above), isn't that how they raised the funds to get elected in the first place?

just one question: how many trillions will paulson and bernanke be able to give away to their pals on wall street before foreigners loss of confidence in the $, the treasury bond and the US balance sheet creates the huge sucking sound of dollar decline and interest rate expansion.

how rapidly and to what level will US debt be downgraded?

seekingalpha.com/artic...

look out below.

and oh yes, are there enough lobbying $s to pay off china, japan et al and convince them to keep buying our treasuries.....?

or do we have a better idea than bribing government decision makers to keep wall street afloat?

pray tell.....

Why Bail Out AIG's Bondholders?

paulson's remit is to look after his pals on wall street.

that's fine i guess but is there anyone out there whose remit is to look after the US taxpayer.

i'm not feeling very looked after right now.

paulson is not an elected representative so by US tradition he can look after his own personal interests, bail out his pals and represent the lobbyists who throw money at the republican party.

but where are our elected representatives in all of this?

oops i guess they've been paid off (see the above), isn't that how they raised the funds to get elected in the first place?

just one question: how many trillions will paulson and bernanke be able to give away to their pals on wall street before foreigners loss of confidence in the $, the treasury bond and the US balance sheet creates the huge sucking sound of dollar decline and interest rate expansion.

how rapidly and to what level will US debt be downgraded?

seekingalpha.com/artic...

look out below.

and oh yes, are there enough lobbying $s to pay off china, japan et al and convince them to keep buying our treasuries.....?

or do we have a better idea than bribing government decision makers to keep wall street afloat?

prey tell.....

The Return of Extreme Bullishness?

could this be another explanation for high call volume and a lower vix: that there's a huge number of people who want to WRITE calls, and that's where all the volume is coming from--which is also lowering the vix as call writers are having to accept much lower prices? this could be consistent with a view that the market is going sideways rather than up or down for a while. just my 2c.

Is MasterCard Signaling Caution?

good article--yes it's a short marketing his position but this is exactly the kind of informed shorting that keeps a market honest and makes bubbles less likely--in short the check and balance to the the market that christopher cox and the rest of the (at this point) rather raggedy looking plunge protection team would like to remove from the market for as long as possible if not permanently

6 Reasons the Market Should Bounce Here

a more relevant question than "This (1325) is the last major technical support point before approximately 1250 (low of 1222). Will the market bounce off of this support?"

is

"what is the next support level under 1225--1250?"

the most telling verbiage in this entire "article" is the repetition of "i am hoping..." in its final paragraph, which pretty much sums up the rather feeble argument(s).

judging by the tenor of articles on this and other sites over the weekend it would seem that a lot of people rushed in to "buy stocks on sale!" last week and the margin clerks are now getting ready to sell them out this week. there is money on the sidelines and short covering to come of course, and that will provoke a "vicious" rally for bears--question is where will that rally start?

the answer will require a more realistic estimate of 2008 profits than we currently have--perhaps that downward revision of profit estimates will revalidate the "fed model" after all!

what's really needed is not yet more $100 bills but for the air to be taken out of debt laden personal, corporate and federal balance sheets as the whole country has been living on borrowed money for so long that it's forgotten you have to pay it back one day. what a brilliant idea for companies to leverage themselves up to buy back stock! as brilliant as taking all of the bubblicious equity out of your house to buy made in china crap. or printing treasury debt iou's to fund "the deficit" because it is the right of our fair nation to have one in perpetuity.

but what happens to all that paper if gdp declines--same thing as when house values collapse--or company profits fall below the levels needed to service their debt--the holders of that debt get nervous and want to get their money back. perhaps that's why the 30 year T-Bond future closed at the pretty much the same price last friday as it did last tuesday--while the dow went down over 400 points over the same period--a very early hint of another interesting "de-coupling"! perhaps the idea of hanging around til 2038 to see how solvent the grand old US of A turns out to be won't be shaping up as the archetypal flight to safety in the next few weeks?

The Economic Stimulus Plan: Short-Term Solution, Long-Term Problem

excellent post. there is so much rhetoric of politicians falling over themselves to throw ever more $100 bills out of the helicopter in a way that will be 'fair'--but no thoughtful analysis and action plan for what it will take to get out of this mess.

mr. market (good for him!) is making a stand and demanding that--and we the people need to hear it, so we can make an informed decision as to who should be running our country.